Michael Williams vs. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2012!
Mr. Williams is a true conservative and was slated to run for the Senate this year until KBH decided to come back to Washington... after saying she would retire...
Posted on 11/03/2010 6:12:42 PM PDT by RobFromGa
2012 Senate Forecasts—The First Look
Dateline: Day after election 2010
By: RobFromGa
Since the 2010 Senate races are now almost all decided (only WA and AK remain), it is time to look forward to the 2012 Senate Races where the Dems are going to have a tough slate to defend.
The Dems need to defend 21 seats to only 10 for the GOP (there are two independents as well-- Lieberman and Sanders who both caucus with the Dems so the Dem caucus is actually defending 23 to only 10 for the GOP)
Some history about the 2006 Midterms for those of you who may have blocked this from your memory…
Midterms 2006 was a strong cycle for the Dems and everything fell into place for them on election day where they won almost every close Senate race. These seats won in 2006 will have to be defended in 2012 in a completely different political climate*:
1) 2006 was a Midterm so no Presidential “coat-tails” came into play.
2) Bush was very unpopular in 2006 and Iraq War fatigue was peaking.
3) GOP didn’t field strong candidates in some races.
4) Mainstream media had more power than they have now.
*The 2012 political climate is, of course, impossible to predict. Two years is an eternity-just ask Obama or Nancy Pelosi how things can change.
Since 2012 is a Presidential election year, the top-of-the ticket nominees will have quite a bit of impact on many Senate races and turnout. It is impossible to predict the future this far in advance, but I am assuming that the American electorate will still be interested in economic growth policies that will lead to jobs, and not so interested in increasing the size and scope of the Federal government.
The 21 Dem seats in play in 2012 (alpha by state) :
D1) Feinstein-California. Probably safe. By their 2010 votes, CA has shown they are happy with the current situation. Maybe Feinstein will retire and the GOP would have a better chance against an open seat.
D2) Carper-Delaware. Safe, Delaware is likely a lost cause for a real GOP candidate, and we don't need a RINO...
D3**) Nelson-Florida. Very vulnerable. GOP should get a pickup here with a good candidate.
D4) Akaka-Hawaii. Safe. He's getting pretty old and will be 88 in 2012. Perhaps he will retire but Dems should be able to hold an open seat. Unless retired Gov. Lingle decides to run which would make this race competitive.
D5*) Cardin-Maryland. Slightly vulnerable. It's a blue state but maybe could be won with the right candidate (Steele or Ehrlich?)
D6**) Stabenow-Michigan. Very vulnerable. Put up a good candidate and she is gone. Great pickup opportunity.
D7*) Klobuchar-Minnesota. Slightly vulnerable against the right candidate. Could be Coleman's seat if he wants to work for it.
D8**) McCaskill-Missouri. Very vulnerable. She beat Talent by a nose in 2006 and she will lose to a qualified candidate in 2012. Word is Talent may want a rematch.
D9**) Tester-Montana. Very vulnerable. He barely won in 2006 and he will face a strong challenger in a Red State.
D10**) Nelson-Nebraska. Very vunerable, almost certain GOP pickup.
D11*) Menendez-New Jersey. Slightly vulnerable. Chris Christie has provided a model for victory. we need a solid candidate. (Kean lost in a squeaker last time). With a good candidate this could become Very vulnerable in a hurry.
D12) Bingaman-New Mexico. Probably safe. He's been in since 1982 so perhaps he'll look at retirement. The GOP has a better chance in an open seat.
D13) Gillibrand- New York. Probably safe, the GOP can't seem to do anything right in New York.
D14*) Conrad-North Dakota. Slightly vulnerable. He supported Obamacare which is universally hated in that red state. GOP needs a strong small government candidate though.
D15**) Brown-Ohio. Very vulnerable. Very liberal senator in a state that is not very liberal.
D16**) Casey-Pennsylvania. Very vulnerable. Just hope we can find someone to beat Specter.
D17) Whitehouse-Rhode Island. Safe.
D18*) Webb-Virginia. Slighlty vulnerable. He barely won in an upset against the "macaca challenged" Allen in 2006 and GOP should field a strong candidate against him. He is a fairly moderate Dem and having to face reelection in 2012 should keep him from embracing Obama/Reid policies.
D19*) Cantwell-Washington. Slightly vulnerable. Will Rossi have the desire to try once again?
D20*) Manchin-West Virginia. Slightly vulnerable. 2010 was a special election so only buys Manchin 2 years as Senator. In 2012, Seat will be in play and Manchin will have to remain conservative and steer away from Obama-Reid policies to have a chance for a full term. He could be forced to legislate as he campaigned which will make him essentially an extra GOP Senator these next two years.
D21*) Kohl-Wisconsin. Slightly vulnerable. Who knows? Maybe what happened to Feingold will make him decide to retire...
The 2 Independent seats in play in 2012 :
I1) Lieberman-Conn. Likely safe for I or D candidate.
I2) Sanders-Vermont. Safe.
The 10 Republican seats in play in 2012 :
R1) Kyl-Arizona. Safe.
R2) Lugar-Indiana. Safe.
R3) Snowe-Maine. Likely Safe. Her biggest threat is a Tea Party primary challenger picking her off like Mike Castle in Delaware, which would almost certainly lose the seat to the Dems. She is one of the more liberal GOP Senators from a very blue state.
R4*) Brown-Massachusetts. Very vulnerable. Should face a strong challenge. Call it 50-50 at this point... I would prefer to see Romney run for this seat, instead of President.
R5) Wicker-Miss. Safe.
R6*) Ensign-Nevada. Slightly vulnerable. Will likely retire but GOP can hold the Open seat.
R7) Corker-Tennessee. Safe.
R8) Hutchinson-Texas. Safe. Hutchinson might retire for Governor run in 2014 but GOP can almost certainly hold the open seat.
R9) Hatch-Utah. Safe.
R10) Barasso-Wyoming. Safe.
So, in a nutshell…
The Dems are defending 21 seats and only 6 of them are what I would consider Safe (CA, DE, , NM, NY, RI).
There are also 7 Very vulnerable (FL, MI, MO, MT, NE, OH, and PA) and 8 Slightly vulnerable seats (MD, MN, NJ, ND, VA, WV, WA, and WI). So, the GOP should be possible to pick up 7-10 seats…
The two Independent seats (VT and CT) are likely to remain D or I and continue to caucus with the Dems.
On the GOP side, we are defending 10 seats and only 2 are vulnerable…
The “Kennedy seat” held by Scott Brown in Mass and the seat that is currently held by by Sen. Ensign in Nevada if he doesn’t retire. Just for sake of argument, let’s say we lose one of these two seats.
Assuming we end up in 2010 with 47 GOP Senators (including AK since Murkowski will caucus with GOP and assuming we lose WA)…
If we pick up 7-10 and lose 1 in 2012, this leaves the GOP with a 53-56 seats majority. To get to 60, GOP would need a net pickup of 13 seats (or 12 if Rossi prevails this time around in WA)… To gain the majority we just need net pickup of 3-4 depending on who is Vice President in 2013. This seems to be almost a sure thing.
And 2014 is another good cycle for the GOP…
R1) Kyl-Arizona. Safe.
: (TEA PARTY)
R2) Lugar-Indiana. Safe.
:(Definitely TEA PARTY Challenge: I know from the ground here in IN)!
R3) Snowe-Maine. Likely Safe. Her biggest threat is a Tea Party primary challenger picking her off like Mike Castle in Delaware, which would almost certainly lose the seat to the Dems. She is one of the more liberal GOP Senators from a very blue state.:
(Might be best to keep her in a “Blue” State, dependes on how she votes in the next 2 years)
R4*) Brown-Massachusetts. Very vulnerable. Should face a strong challenge. Call it 50-50 at this point... I would prefer to see Romney run for this seat, instead of President.
: (You’re probably right about Romney, though maybe he should save his ‘ammo’ for John Kerry)
R5) Wicker-Miss. Safe.
:(Don’t know about Wicker)
R6*) Ensign-Nevada. Slightly vulnerable. Will likely retire but GOP can hold the Open seat.
:(You’re probably right)
R7) Corker-Tennessee. Safe.
: (v. TEA PARTY)
R8) Hutchinson-Texas. Safe. Hutchinson might retire for Governor run in 2014 but GOP can almost certainly hold the open seat.
: (Definitely Tea Party)
R9) Hatch-Utah. Safe.
: (Maybe depends on how he votes in the next 2 years, otherwise TEA PARTY CHALLENGE)
R10) Barasso-Wyoming. Safe.
: (You’re right)
Take a seminar from Chris Christie, and stay away from “Arnold”.
ping
Thanks for the ping!
Cool.
Webb is 1) more than slightly vulnerable and 2) less than fairly moderate.
He WILL lose in 2012. IF he runs.
From the VA GOP: Obama and Webb Are Next
I hope you’re right about Jim Jordan running against Sherrod Brown. He’s a solid conservative. My ultimate fear is that DeWine will be the nominee. He said last night that his first act as Attorney General will be to sue over Obamacare. That strikes me as posturing for a run at his old seat in two years. Other possibilities I’ve thought of are Secretary of State-elect Jon Husted and Lt. Gov elect Mary Taylor. I’d prefer Jordan to those two, but their better than DeWine.
I need to proofread before I post. they’re instead of their.
I was just reading off the record quotes about Jordan planning to run. Sounds like he's a candidates conservatives and the establishment can agree on.
However, I am shocked that they like him in Mass and has a good chance of winning a six year term. So, I was expecting a bit more yesterday in Mass. Perhaps one congressional district - the one on Cape Cod that was an open seat. Change takes time.
Thanks for the ping. Very interesting write-up.
As big a question of who we should pull for to face Dem incumbents, is which Republicans we should primary.
But first, a whole lot of people on our side need to realize that it isn’t worth it to blow an election against a 100% liberal, just because we wanted to run _any_ 100% conservative even though they are drastically less likely than a particular 95% conservative candidate to win. (I’m of course talking about Angle and Lowden - Castle/Chafee/Jeffords/Hagel types are worth picking off even if it means losing.)
Re: Snowe, for tactical reasons I’m not sure we should primary her. Perhaps what we ought to do is run an independent against her in the general. Similar to the LePage race, with Snowe and the Dem splitting the center-left vote - it’s probably the only real way to get a real conservative to win there.
Lugar and Hatch absolutely need to be primaried, just because we can do so much better in those states. Chaffetz (sp) against Hatch, perhaps. Williams should run in TX, regardless of whether or not Hutchinson goes back on her word.
Yep, she has got to be one of the dumbest to serve in the senate.
Great analysis Rob. I believe the GOP will pick up a net of another 7 or 8 in 2012. That’s put the GOP at 55. I hope it is so.
Depending on what Obama does and how upset the American people are at him, and who the GOP fields...that number could go higher 2-3 seats (meaning a 58-42 majority) or lower 2-3 seats (meaning at worst, a 52-48, the 48 including the two independents).
I pray to God that the incoming GOP House hammers Obama over and over again over health care, taxes, spending, foreign policy, etc., etc. and forces him to veto the very things the people sent the GOP majority there to accomplish. They should not let up, they should not compromise on these issues. If they will do that, then we will maximize the gains in 2012 and hold the Presidency, a huge majority on the House, and the Senate...but this time with a different breed of individuals who will actually turn a lot of the leftist liberal agenda back.
Lugar will be 80..he should retire..
Given what happened in Maine on Tiesday, I suspect that your two senators will suddenly start becoming far more... well, “conservative” and won’t be giving Mitch too much trouble..
It might be too soon for Allen West, just elected to public office for the first time, to run for the U.S. Senate in as large a state as FL. Fortunately, the FL GOP has a deep bench. My top choices to take on Bill Nelson would be incoming Lt. Gov. (and current state rep) Jennifer Carroll, incoming Agriculture Commissioner (and current Congressman) Adam Putnam, and former Gov. Jeb Bush. I hope that RINOish Congressman Connie Mack doesn’t run, but if its between him and a gadfly I’d go with Mack (who, while annoying, has a fairly good voting record).
Tom Gallagher might be an option. Too soon for Putnam imo. Maybe Carroll... but she just got in. Maybe Jeb.
I think an awful lot depends on how these 2012 Dems play their votes the next two years. Barry and Harry sounded defiant yesterday - no compromise, stay the course. I have a feeling a lot of these people who you identify as vulnerable will go wobbly and stop voting the Obama line. That is, assuming they have the stomach to stay in the game and run again. We could see a lot of them retire.
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