Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47% Democrats 39% (It is really tightening, eh?)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/11/2010 | Scott Rasmussen

[Tennessean4Bush]

With just three weeks to go until Election Day, Republicans hold an eight-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Polling for the week ending Sunday, October 10, shows that 47% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% prefer the Democrat.

The Republican advantage comes from a number of factors. One is the fact that midterm elections typically feature an older electorate with a smaller share of minority voters. Additionally, in 2010, there is clearly an enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP.

Due to these and other factors, the data projects that 35% of voters this year will be Republicans, while 33% will be Democrats. In the previous midterm election of 2006, the Democrats had a two-percentage point advantage. Unaffiliated voters strongly favored Democrats in 2006 and strongly favor Republicans this year.

[RedMDer]

It's Steny Hoyer's district. Let's help Lollar beat him. Thanks!

Kratovil also needs to go. Let's help Andy Harris beat him! These are both great candidates. Thanks!

[Tennessean4Bush]

About 8+ over Dems seems to be the norm.

You are correct.

[BigEdLB]

Others in the last few days include CNN +7, and CBS +8... Those have a history of bias, and Ras gives them credence...

[Tennessean4Bush]

I was hoping for at least +7 today, but +8 makes my week!!

Me too! I was afraid it may have gotten closer, but to my relief last week was merely an outlier.

[jjsheridan5]

In blowout elections, it always tightens a few weeks before the election. And then the lead grows to its largest a week or two out. The dems are going to get obliterated.

[SeattleBruce]

“You know, half an hour ago, after I saw that Rasmussen’s number for ObamaCare repeal was 55%, I predicted to myself that today’s generic ballot divide would be R +8, and I was exactly right.”

You’re gettin’ good at this TQC! :)

[Tennessean4Bush]

The race was never tightening

It looks like you are right. Let's see what Gallup reports this afternoon. If they are still +10 or more in their LV models, then I think it is time to turn out the lights on the dems in the House.

[novemberslady]

That’s great

[JPG]

Sparky, the Illinois community organizer, was elected on Nov 4, 2008. The Illinois lottery ‘Pick 3’ game winning numbers for Nov 5, 2008, were 666.....and the rats laugh at Christine.

[SeattleBruce]

“Gallup will report in a little while, it will be interesting what their likely voter models will show this week.”

Right. Last week’s Gallup likely voter model #s were an unmitigated nightmare for the RATS. Will this week’s Gallup numbers confirm?

[xuberalles]

Thank you. :)

[SeattleBruce]

At the very least we can say, the RATS are running out of time...that is a sweet thing. Can hardly wait for 11/3.

[Palmetto Patriot]

Due to these and other factors, the data projects that 35% of voters this year will be Republicans, while 33% will be Democrats.

Am I missing something?

[Chunga]

32% will be independents. That’s where the story is.

[SeattleBruce]

You’re comparing apples to oranges, or in this case Gallup to Rasmussen...;)

Ras actually went from +3 to +8.

I agree though - none of these numbers mean quit now and coast! I’m doing the opposite - and with a spring in my step as I doorbell!

[fwdude]

Hopefully they can’t get to the lifeboats in time.

And before they jump in the lifeboats, they'll ram a few more gapping holes in the hull of our sinking ship.

[SeattleBruce]

“And before they jump in the lifeboats, they’ll ram a few more gapping holes in the hull of our sinking ship.”

Real charmers, aint they? Real American heroes.../massive sarc

[Palmetto Patriot]

Aha!

Thanks for that!

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Tennessean4Bush.

the data projects that 35% of voters this year will be Republicans, while 33% will be Democrats

[Tennessean4Bush]

Will this week’s Gallup numbers confirm?

I bet they do confirm, but I will be surprised if they are still that high. I think it may be +8 and +13 this week. It really would not shock me if Gallup was wildly different this week, they tend to do that from week to week with their RV polls. But now that they are bothering to cast LV turnout models, I bet it is less volatile.