Well, we must always account for the 10% liberal voting fraud allowance.
Posted on 10/11/2010 12:22:33 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
With just three weeks to go until Election Day, Republicans hold an eight-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Polling for the week ending Sunday, October 10, shows that 47% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% prefer the Democrat.
The Republican advantage comes from a number of factors. One is the fact that midterm elections typically feature an older electorate with a smaller share of minority voters. Additionally, in 2010, there is clearly an enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP.
Due to these and other factors, the data projects that 35% of voters this year will be Republicans, while 33% will be Democrats. In the previous midterm election of 2006, the Democrats had a two-percentage point advantage. Unaffiliated voters strongly favored Democrats in 2006 and strongly favor Republicans this year.
What’s the status on those 350,000 New York ballots. Did they get them to our military yet?
You know, half an hour ago, after I saw that Rasmussen’s number for ObamaCare repeal was 55%, I predicted to myself that today’s generic ballot divide would be R +8, and I was exactly right.
Last weeks numbers were just the 1-in-20 outlier that even the best polling firm will occasionally have.
Ignore the numbers—they bounce all over the place, often without rhyme or reason.
Get out the vote.
Tightening like a noose.
They have the numbers transposed in the 10/10 line of their “history” table.
An eight-point margin in the generic ballot means the Dems are manning the lifeboats.
It has been, on average, about +8 for quite some time. I thought it was tightening after last week, but it looks like it is still right at where it has been. Gallup will report in a little while, it will be interesting what their likely voter models will show this week.
Hey,this is a BFD!- Joe Biden
The race was never tightening, that was nothing but wishfull thinking on their part, if anything things have moved even further in our direction in the last few weeks.
Hahaha, this can’t be good for the Dem momentum meme.
He does seem to have the number reversed on the link though. It’s reading just the reverse on the chart at the moment.
About 8+ over Dems seems to be the norm.
I was hoping for at least +7 today, but +8 makes my week!!
Hopefully they can’t get to the lifeboats in time.
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Well, we must always account for the 10% liberal voting fraud allowance.
So, by how much were Dems oversampled in THIS one?
You are mixing polls. Gallup had us up by 18 last week in their low turnout, likely voter model. Gallup will report later today. Rasmussen had GOP up by 3 last week, which we wondered whether or not it was an outlier or trend. It turns out, it was an outlier. Rasmussen has show GOP +8 on average for many months now.
18 was Gallup, Rasmussen had it at plus 3. different polls my friend. no tightening
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