Posted on 10/08/2010 3:27:28 PM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus
Gallup's recent modeling of the vote for Congress finds 54% of likely voters identifying themselves as politically conservative, while moderates are in conspicuously short supply compared with recent midterms. Also, Republicans make up a larger share of the electorate in Gallup's initial 2010 likely voter pool -- greater than their 1994 share -- than do Democrats, and the gap is even more pronounced once the leanings of independents are taken into account.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
“...Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone-only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday....”
“yes, except that does not account for ‘Rat corruption plus massive media bias”
If the numbers hold it will. But it’s NOT time to give up our efforts to GOTV. On to 11/3!
Never thought I would say it. . . . Thanks Obama. . .
Good thought, but it's my understanding that current pollsters call cell phones as well as landlines as part of their methodology. Whether the percentage of cell phones that they reach enables them to get an accurate-enough sample of the likely voting population is a the big question.
"Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone-only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
"Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design."
The 18 - 29 years old cohort are only supposed to 8% of likely voter turnout in the low turnout model.
Listen up Ace, little children typiclly don't feel good unless they get the last word. I'll let you have that honor since you fit that description to a T.
I got robo polled this week where you answer the questions by pushing the one or two key on the phone.
End result of my answers: I am an angry, registered democrat Hispanic Woman voting republican this fall.
“for partisanship with the numbers for ideological breakdown, this strongly suggests that a healthy majority of unaffiliated voters are people who probably were Republicans at one point, but left because of the leftward tilt in recent years, or people who would be Republicans if the Party wasn’t full of mushy RINOs.”
More accurately, the independents we are winning back are fiscal conservatives who want smaller Government overall and want successful economic policies - that is a 60% majority of the electorate - but left the GOP over:
- social issues (dont like the RR, or conversely dont like the GOP paying only lip service to these issues)
- the war (iraq, etc)
- competence
- corruption
- RINOism (dont like the GOP not living up to its promises)
The “Reagan coalition” was a
Wow, I didn’t think of skewing my ethnic category, but I did something like it, pushing the button for “Independent” and “female”.
Thanks nd.
One of the claims about the polling used in the 1948 race (”Dewey Defeats Truman”) is that the telephone polling tended to reach wealthier households (most people didn’t have phones).
A note of caution here: just because people self-ID as “conservative” does not mean they will vote conservative. This is a common mistaken assumption that spans numerous election cycles and frustrates many.
The old saw is that poltics is about addition not subtraction.
Conservative candidates recommend reductions in government and the instant they do they lose so-called self-IDed conservatives who suddenly decide they don’t want certain programs reduced or eliminated.
BEING a conservative is a real commitment; just telling a pollster “I’m a conservative is nothing.” Less, actually.
I overheard Newt prognosticating today that Republicans will pick up the most seats since 1932.
We're in a historic time, alright. How sweet it is!
Under-confidence is as dangerous as over-confidence.
Of course we have to keep the pedal to the metal, but at the same time, try to acknowledge our real gains.
Obama is pathologically irresponsible. I'm sure that in his mind, the Republican landslide is Pelosi and Reid's fault alone.
Why, they're about to make him "look bad."!
What is a “moderate”? What specific beliefs do they hold?
I lean socially rightward, but my “focus” if you will is fiscal and foreign policy. I definitely don’t want a pro-abortion RINO, but on the flip side, unlike some so-called conservatives, I will NOT accept a pro-life Socialist as if they were really a conservative simply because they’re pro-life - they’re just as much of a RINO to me as the other type.
None. Otherwise they wouldn’t be moderates.
You can be moderate on one issue, example, you can have a moderate view of XXXX - but your overall viewpoint will still lean one way or the other.
A TRUE moderate doesn’t exist.
I agree - that's why I am constantly emphasising that we need conservatives - not "fiscal conservatives" OR "social conservatives," but "all around conservatives", aka "movement conservatives."
We now know the “Big Tent” initiative in the Republican Party was nothing more than a Progressives smoke and mirrors distraction to control the party and the future of our nation with their willing Democrat Progressives.
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