Skip to comments.Likely Voters Demographically Typical, but Skew Conservative [Great news!]
Posted on 10/08/2010 3:27:28 PM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus
Gallup's recent modeling of the vote for Congress finds 54% of likely voters identifying themselves as politically conservative, while moderates are in conspicuously short supply compared with recent midterms. Also, Republicans make up a larger share of the electorate in Gallup's initial 2010 likely voter pool -- greater than their 1994 share -- than do Democrats, and the gap is even more pronounced once the leanings of independents are taken into account.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
This data ALSO confirms what I've been saying for months now - the resurgence in conservative activism is NOT due to the swinging of the "mythical moderate fiscal-conservative-but-socially-liberal" voters to the GOP. If you look at the breakdown of independents, you see that well over half of them lean GOP, less than a third lean Dem, and a little more than a tenth are "true" independents. When you integrate these numbers for partisanship with the numbers for ideological breakdown, this strongly suggests that a healthy majority of unaffiliated voters are people who probably were Republicans at one point, but left because of the leftward tilt in recent years, or people who would be Republicans if the Party wasn't full of mushy RINOs.
For what it's worth, it also appears that the vast bulk of "moderates" (which generally means social liberals who are also somewhat fiscally conservative on some things) are siding with the Dems - and we're winning without them. There's no reason for the GOP to pander to the centre and try to build another "big tent," just to get us back to where we were four years ago.
Ping pong tourney, tonight at seven!
“There’s no reason for the GOP to pander to the centre and try to build another “big tent,” just to get us back to where we were four years ago.”
Hear, hear! We may be finally learning our lesson. The result may be a true Conservative revival.
For your interest. Looks like I was right - we don’t need to pander to moderates and social liberals after all...
If Gallup is right, and lets say we conservatively get 57 % voting Republican... Its going to be a blowout. That would be swell.
I think you are not off target. I did some math.
Between 2006 and 2010.
Change in percentage (%):
This is huge!!!!!!!
Republicans were +5 in 1994 and +9 today. Including leaners, Reps were +5 in 1994 and +18 today. Should be a better year than 1994 then.
What this means is that liberals are still liberals, but (moderate?) Dem’s with an open mind - yes, there must be a lot, actually - are abandoning the lib’s in droves.
I'll bet no one pays for your advice.
Once the wimps are pushed out of the way, the strength of conservatism shines through.
Oh yeah, and keep in mind too that this number matches pretty well with the Republican number for the high turnout model in Gallup's poll from a few days ago. The numbers seem to be converging.
Well, I guess you're right. I really should spend more time canvassing the leprechauns, faeries, unicorns, and wood nymphs. In fact, I almost have the Easter Bunny on board...I'm sure I'll have his vote with just a little more work.
Over 50% of the public identifies itself as conservative-leaning, while only 20% calls itself liberal. The natural state of things is for Democrats to win no more than 1/5 of elections.
We are witnessing the market correction of the Dem bubble.
yes, except that does not account for ‘Rat corruption plus massive media bias
still, I am very hopeful that Nov. 2 is going to change the Congress and shake the rotten Obozo admin. to its sleazy foundations
54% of likely voters identifying themselves as politically conservative, while moderates are in conspicuously short supply compared with recent midterms. Also, Republicans make up a larger share of the electorate in Gallup's initial 2010 likely voter pool -- greater than their 1994 shareNot to piss in the punchbowl, but telephone polls are going to skew conservative, because of the mobile phones that are the only phones so many younger and lefter boneheads have as literally their only phone -- no landline. Thanks Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus.
“Seriously, we may actually wipe almost every familiar face from the house and senate, and the few old faces left will be swept away in 2012 and 2014.”
Because most of the familiar faces are professional politicians, and most RATs at that, this would suit me just fine!
“This is huge!!!!!!!”
If it holds through election day. Let’s work as if we’re even, or even behind. Then we’ll maximize the surge!
“Dems with an open mind - yes, there must be a lot, actually - are abandoning the libs in droves.”
Yes. People at work, and out where I’m doorbelling, are telling me they’re Democrats or voted for Obama and are voting for Rossi.
“Not to piss in the punchbowl, but telephone polls are going to skew conservative”
The pollsters are still doing sampling though.
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