Posted on 10/05/2010 10:02:14 AM PDT by MissesBush
Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot question—which party’s candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.
However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.
These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
Having said that, caution is in order. Gallup’s numbers tend to be volatile. Its procedures for projecting likely turnout are very sensitive to transitory responses. They’re useful in identifying shifts in the balance of enthusiasm. But they can overstate the swings to one party or the other. Scott Rasmussen’s latest generic ballot numbers among likely voters show Republicans with only a 45%-42% lead, much less than the 48%-38% lead he reported two days ago. That’s based on a three-day average, indicating Democrats fared relatively well on the most recent night of interviewing. Perhaps Barack Obama’s attempts to gin up enthusiasm among Democratic voters are bearing fruit. Or perhaps one night’s results were an anomaly. Polling theory tells us that at least one out of 20 polls is simply wrong, that is, the results differ from what you would get from interviewing the entire population by more than the margin of error.
The realclearpolitics.com average of recent generic ballot polls, with the Gallup likely voter results factored in, shows Republicans ahead by 48%-42%, which is similar to what we’ve seen for the past week or two.
But we do keep seeing poll results from surprising districts that tend to support the Gallup results. Last week I pointed to a poll (from a pollster I don’t know) showing an even race in North Carolina 7 between Republican Ilario Pantano and 14-year Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre, who won his 2008 race, in which he had an active Republican opponent, with 69% of the vote. Now Ed Morrissey directs our attention to a poll by Public Opinion Strategies, a highly respected Republican firm, in Minnesota 8 showing 36-year incumbent James Oberstar leading Republican challenger Chip Cravaacke by only 45%-42%, within the margin of error.
John McCormack has a good post in the Weekly Standard’s blog on this. Oberstar was first elected in 1974, he is Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and has brought public dollars to an economically chronically ailing district. He was reelected in 2008 with 68% of the vote. But this is also a district that, despite containing the Democratic strongholds of Duluth and much of the Iron Range (both in St. Louis County) that voted only 53% for John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008. However, at its southern end it includes Isanti and Chisago Counties, exurban counties in the Twin Cities metro area, which despite a Democratic heritage have trended away from Democrats in recent elections—toward Jesse Ventura in 1998 and toward Republicans between 2000 and 2008, when they both voted for John McCain.
Minnesota 8 has a certain historic resonance for Democrats. It was one of only two or three districts (I am away from my desk where I have my papers and sources on this) which in the Republican landslide year of 1946 switched from a Republican to a Democratic congressman. This was a move away from progressive and isolationist Republicans (like Alvin O’Konski in the adjoining then-10th District of Wisconsin) toward labor-backed Democrats (completed in the Wisconsin case by the victory of young Democrat David Obey over O’Konski when they were redistricted together in 1972). Only two Democrats have represented Minnesota 8 ever since, John Blatnik, first elected in 1946 and for whom Oberstar worked as a staffer, and since 1974 Oberstar; only one Democrat, David Obey, has represented what is now Wisconsin 7 since 1969. For Oberstar to have a serious challenge, much less to be in danger of defeat, is quite astonishing. If these numbers are right—and like all poll numbers they are subject to some degree of doubt—they tend to confirm the Gallup likely voter numbers.
As for Obey, he has chosen to retire this year at age 72, and Republican Sean Duffy is waging a serious campaign for the district. These are two American congressional districts that touch on Lake Superior, that huge and cold forboding body of water over which the great freighters filled with iron ore have sailed in the ice-free months, from Duluth to the steel factories in Gary, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo. In the third of these districts, Michigan 1, Republican Dan Benishek looks like the favorite to take the district being vacated by Democrat Bart Stupak.
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallups-astonishing-numbers-and-the-lake-superior-congressional-districts-104321583.html#ixzz11VIca2xp
The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
Told ya
Been tellin ya
For months
120+
I’ve never thought this year was like 1994. In 1994 we had no idea that what happened was coming. We also didn’t have such an arrogant absolutely detached President and Congress willing to disregard the will of the people with such flair. Passing health care politically traumatized America it is not something that can be forgiven. The rise of Tea Party has been the best thing to happen for conservatives and has been the glue allowing independents to gravitate to an even more conservative cause and align with Republicans without being a Republican.
This is a major realignment. People thought Obama was a realignment but he ran on tax cuts and claimed to be a centrist. It wasn’t a realignment but a wholesale deception of America. Tea Party politics is non Machiavellian politics. It is the proud full spectrum conservatism of Reagan and it is beautiful.
I can hardly wait....
This closing the gap canard is blown when you look at the number of unwinable R seats are coming into striking distance and the solid numbers other have had with a lead.
The same can be said with the media spin that the D’s are out raising the R’s thanks to Obummer. The numbers are not panning out on that either.
That polling result of 56-38 R for a low turnout would yields a crazy result putting it into an algorithm... R 336 - D 99 in the house. That is just too odd... The 53-40 result would make the parties R 308 - D 127. We have seen 10s, but not 13s or 18s before in terms of margin... But when Newt said 150 seats could be in play last Spring, I think we all thought his analysis a bit off...
Great points. If this doesn’t wake people up, they’re as dead as a Chicago voter.
Dems ARE “closing the gap.”.............between them and the door...............
That's the story the media haven't told. Obama and the Dems lied their way into power and the people are holding them accountable for their lies. The majority don't want this radical liberal agenda we've been force fed.
In 1994 I was watching C-Span and The republican pollster was saying it looked like the republicans would win in a landslide taking about 45 seats! I had this funny feeling during the fall that we the conservatives would win. I listened to conservative talk radio.
need to keep up the pressure AFTER the election..Real pressure. We cannot afford to go back to the days of making deals.
If Republicans reach across the isle they damn well better have a subpena or an invitation to a duel in their hand!
Chip Craavack is the real deal. He finally got Big Papa Pork to agree to a public debate and since Oberstar is incapable of expressing short, coherent thoughts I expect he will do very, very well. If this poll is accurate Oberstar is in big trouble — at last.
High turnout - R +13
Low turnout - R +18
Normal turnout - R +4
Isn't that peculiar. I would expect a more linear change along the turnout continuum.
I'll try to intepret it:
Low turnout = Dems staty home in fit of depression / GOP turnout stays normal. (R+18).
Normal turnout dutiful Dems show up closes the GOP gap to +4.
High turn out: While the dutiful dems show, the GOP votes like it's a presidential year making it +13
“I’ve never thought this year was like 1994. In 1994 we had no idea that what happened was coming. We also didn’t have such an arrogant absolutely detached President and Congress willing to disregard the will of the people with such flair. Passing health care politically traumatized America it is not something that can be forgiven.”
I hope I can disagree without being disagreeable. It was Hillarycare that put the hole in the hull of Clinton’s ship of state. That and her sheer arrogance. You may not remember that almost every republican candidate for governor was elected that year. A notable exception? Sheffield Nelson, Republican candidate for governor of Arkansas. I was at his “victory” party the night of the election. His loss was mitigated by the republican sweep around the country. It was not a surprise.
And even a caveman could figure it out.
Yes but Hillarycare failed which was the assumed point of my comment. :-) The Democrats this year did not stop when faced with a wall of angry growing opposition. They shoved it down our throats and the arrogance of the Clinton’s did not compare to the outright contempt for the will of the people that Obama and this Democrat congress has displayed. When I said I did not think this was like 1994 I meant I always assumed it would be much much worse for Democrats which it is shaping up to be.
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