Posted on 10/04/2010 6:09:16 PM PDT by CedarDave
Solid support among Democratic and independent voters helped Rep. Martin Heinrich keep a lead over Republican challenger Jon Barela in the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District race, a new Journal Poll found.
However, the poll also found that 1st District voters who cast ballots in both the 2006 and 2008 general elections making them the most likely of all to vote on the U.S. House seat this year were almost evenly split on the candidates. Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff said that could be good news for Barela in this nonpresidential election year.
~~snip~~
Heinrich, the first-term incumbent who was the first Democrat to win the Albuquerque-based congressional district, had 48 percent support in the new Journal Poll, compared with 41 percent for Barela.
~~snip~~
With Democrats making up 48 percent of all registered voters in the 1st District, and Republicans 32 percent, Heinrich would have an advantage in a high turnout election. But turnout is typically lower in midterm election years, like this one, than it is in presidential years, such as when Heinrich first was elected in 2008.
(Excerpt) Read more at abqjournal.com ...
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This is good news. I hope that Barela can raise the necessary funds.
Not the greatest likely voter screen -- 06 and 08 were Democrat wave years, so that type of screening will overstate Democrat support. Ideally you use a combination of voting history and current enthusiasm.
And even with that crappy, pro-Dem LV screen the race is even? This poll directly contradicts the poll from a couple of weeks ago (from SUSA?) showing Heinrich up big.
Jon can win!!!
Fundamentally, you've got:
* Strong top of the ticket
* Strong anti-Dem feeling in the state (Richardson & national mood)
* Attractive Hispanic businessman as nominee
* District leans slight Dem
* Medium strong incumbent (newness probably an asset) handicapped by bad votes
To me, that adds up to a Barela victory. Right candidate at the right time.
Barela is pro-amnesty so I donated to Canseco in Texas instead.
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