[Crichton]

However, the poll also found that 1st District voters who cast ballots in both the 2006 and 2008 general elections — making them the most likely of all to vote on the U.S. House seat this year — were almost evenly split on the candidates.

Not the greatest likely voter screen -- 06 and 08 were Democrat wave years, so that type of screening will overstate Democrat support. Ideally you use a combination of voting history and current enthusiasm.

[AuH2ORepublican]

And even with that crappy, pro-Dem LV screen the race is even? This poll directly contradicts the poll from a couple of weeks ago (from SUSA?) showing Heinrich up big.