Independents Boosting Heinrich Bid (NM D-1, Barela [R])

The Albuquerque Journal ^ | October 4, 2010 | Dan Boyd

[CedarDave]

Solid support among Democratic and independent voters helped Rep. Martin Heinrich keep a lead over Republican challenger Jon Barela in the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District race, a new Journal Poll found.

However, the poll also found that 1st District voters who cast ballots in both the 2006 and 2008 general elections — making them the most likely of all to vote on the U.S. House seat this year — were almost evenly split on the candidates. Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff said that could be good news for Barela in this nonpresidential election year.

~~snip~~

Heinrich, the first-term incumbent who was the first Democrat to win the Albuquerque-based congressional district, had 48 percent support in the new Journal Poll, compared with 41 percent for Barela.

~~snip~~

With Democrats making up 48 percent of all registered voters in the 1st District, and Republicans 32 percent, Heinrich would have an advantage in a high turnout election. But turnout is typically lower in midterm election years, like this one, than it is in presidential years, such as when Heinrich first was elected in 2008.

[CedarDave]

Heinrich is a far-left Democrat in the mold of Tom Udall. He supports all the typical environmental-wacko positions from cap and tax to more EPA regs to locking up more land for resource development. And he was a cohort of Earth First eco-terrorist Dave Foreman (Martin Heinrich Appeals to EcoTerrorists). And, of course, he follows Obama's positions right up and down the line.

[CedarDave]

NM list PING!

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[Clintonfatigued]

This is good news. I hope that Barela can raise the necessary funds.

[Crichton]

However, the poll also found that 1st District voters who cast ballots in both the 2006 and 2008 general elections — making them the most likely of all to vote on the U.S. House seat this year — were almost evenly split on the candidates.

Not the greatest likely voter screen -- 06 and 08 were Democrat wave years, so that type of screening will overstate Democrat support. Ideally you use a combination of voting history and current enthusiasm.

[AuH2ORepublican]

And even with that crappy, pro-Dem LV screen the race is even? This poll directly contradicts the poll from a couple of weeks ago (from SUSA?) showing Heinrich up big.

[CPT Clay]

Jon can win!!!

[Crichton]

The problem is that, screen aside, who knows how good the poll itself is. Probably crappy like most House polling. I do agree with Charlie Cook & "Stu" on that.

Fundamentally, you've got:

* Strong top of the ticket
* Strong anti-Dem feeling in the state (Richardson & national mood)
* Attractive Hispanic businessman as nominee
* District leans slight Dem
* Medium strong incumbent (newness probably an asset) handicapped by bad votes

To me, that adds up to a Barela victory. Right candidate at the right time.

[nbenyo]

Barela is pro-amnesty so I donated to Canseco in Texas instead.

[JouleZ]

Barela is pro-amnesty ..... ************* Interesting. Heinrich stinks, too. NM has no worthy real candidates it seems. I guess I will write in a name.