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Key House Races - 11 September 2010 Update - We’ve Added CO-07, GA-02, IL-17, NC-11 & WA-02 to The M
www.KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 11 Sept 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 09/11/2010 11:44:14 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

We've added 5 more Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: CO-07, GA-02, IL-17, NC-11 & WA-02

That's the biggest change to our Master List in several months. We now have 86 Democrats and 12 pretty safe Republicans on out list.

This weeks news:

It was another good week for our six "Experts" with a total of 47 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List. The Dems managed to get 9 of those 47, all by Election Projection. Rothenberg finally came through and we had updates from all 6 "Experts" this week. Our guys are starting to get on the ball.

We've added the NYT to our list of Pickup Projections. Nate Silver, very bright, very liberal is doing the predicting for the NYT and he is calling it a 46 seat pickup at this point. That's good news since Silver has pretty good reputation for calling elections. At least IMHO.

We are now listing all the Pickup Projections we can find on the Home Page at KHR.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

  • There were a total of 47 updates this week to the 98 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
  • 38 were favorable to the Republicans
  • 9 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.160 from last weeks -.100.

Yikes you say. How can we be moving in the wrong direction with all those positive changes for the Republicans????

The answer is that we've added 5 more Vulnerable Dems to our list who are, at this point, still favored to win hold on to their seats. This skews are index. We knew that would happen when we add new Dems to the list. But we've added 5 new targets and that is what counts.

Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for all the remaining Primaries. We are only a week away from completing the Primary  Season.

September 14: District of Columbia, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.

September 18: Hawaii

TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2010; elections; keyhouseraces; khr
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I'm posting the Ranked version of the Master List this week. It is worth noting that there are 49 Vulnerable Democrats on this list with a rating that is at least a Toss Up or better - from a Republican perspective.

Rank District Dem Primary Winner Incumbent
or Open		 Republican Incumbent or Challengers ALL Primary Avg. Experts District Rank
Or Incumbent Main Challenger Challenger Challenger
1 OH 2 Surya Yalamanchili Incumbent R Jean Schmidt OH 4-May 2.8 Safe R OH 2 1
2 FL 12 Lori Edwards Open R Dennis Ross FL 24-Aug 2.3 Likely R FL 12 2
3 MN 6 Tarryl Clark Incumbent R Michele Bachmann MN 10-Aug 2.3 Likely R MN 6 3
4 LA 3 Ravi Sangisetty Open D Jeff Landry Hunt Downer Runoff LA 28-Aug 2.2 Likely R LA 3 4
5 NY 29 Open D (Massa) Open D Tom Reed NY 14-Sep 2.2 Likely R NY 29 5
6 TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black TN 5-Aug 2.2 Likely R TN 6 6
7 AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin AR 18-May 2.0 Likely R AR 2 7
8 NE 2 Tom White Incumbent R Lee Terry NE 11-May 2.0 Likely R NE 2 8
9 PA 6 Manan Trivedi Incumbent R Jim Gerlach PA 18-May 1.8 Likely R PA 6 9
10 WA 8 Suzan DelBene Incumbent R Dave Reichert WA 17-Aug 1.7 Likely R WA 8 10
11 CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren CA 8-Jun 1.3 Leans R CA 3 11
12 FL 25 Joe Garcia Open R David Rivera FL 24-Aug 1.2 Leans R FL 25 12
13 KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder KS 3-Aug 1.2 Leans R KS 3 13
14 IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon IN 4-May 0.8 Leans R IN 8 14
15 AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford AR 18-May 0.7 Leans R AR 1 15
16 CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner CO 10-Aug 0.7 Leans R CO 4 16
17 FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams FL 24-Aug 0.7 Leans R FL 24 17
18 IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger IL 2-Feb 0.7 Leans R IL 11 18
19 MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris Jeannie Riccio Jeff Ghrist MD 14-Sep 0.7 Leans R MD 1 19
20 NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce NM 1-Jun 0.7 Leans R NM 2 20
21 OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot OH 4-May 0.7 Leans R OH 1 21
22 OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers OH 4-May 0.7 Leans R OH 15 22
23 WA 3 Denny Heck Open D Jaime Herrera WA 17-Aug 0.7 Leans R WA 3 23
24 MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek MI 3-Aug 0.5 Toss-Up MI 1 24
25 MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee MS 1-Jun 0.5 Toss-Up MS 1 25
26 ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg ND 8-Jun 0.5 Toss-Up ND AL 26
27 NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta Sean Mahoney Rich Ashooh NH 14-Sep 0.5 Toss-Up NH 1 27
28 NH 2 Open D (Paul Hodes) Open D Jennifer Horn Charlie Bass Bob Giuda NH 14-Sep 0.5 Toss-Up NH 2 28
29 PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta PA 18-May 0.5 Toss-Up PA 11 29
30 TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher TN 5-Aug 0.5 Toss-Up TN 8 30
31 TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores TX 13-Apr 0.5 Toss-Up TX 17 31
32 VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt VA 8-Jun 0.5 Toss-Up VA 5 32
33 FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster FL 24-Aug 0.3 Toss-Up FL 8 33
34 MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg MI 3-Aug 0.3 Toss-Up MI 7 34
35 NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck NV 8-Jun 0.3 Toss-Up NV 3 35
36 OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci OH 4-May 0.3 Toss-Up OH 16 36
37 PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan PA 18-May 0.3 Toss-Up PA 7 37
38 SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem SD 8-Jun 0.3 Toss-Up SD AL 38
39 WI 7 Open D (Obey) Open D Sean Duffy Dan Mielke WI 14-Sep 0.3 Toss-Up WI 7 39
40 FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Steve Southerland FL 24-Aug 0.2 Toss-Up FL 2 40
41 IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren IL 2-Feb 0.2 Toss-Up IL 14 41
42 IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young IN 4-May 0.2 Toss-Up IN 9 42
43 SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney SC 8-Jun 0.2 Toss-Up SC 5 43
44 VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell VA 8-Jun 0.2 Toss-Up VA 2 44
45 PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly PA 18-May 0.0 Toss-Up PA 3 45
46 HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou HI 18-Sep -0.2 Toss-Up HI 1 46
47 AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert AZ 24-Aug -0.2 Toss-Up AZ 5 47
48 IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold IL 2-Feb -0.2 Toss-Up IL 10 48
49 NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna NY 14-Sep -0.2 Toss-Up NY 24 49
50 WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley WV 11-May -0.2 Toss-Up WV 1 50
51 AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Paul Gosar AZ 24-Aug -0.3 Toss-Up AZ 1 51
52 IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun IA 8-Jun -0.3 Toss-Up IA 3 52
53 PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino PA 18-May -0.3 Toss-Up PA 10 53
54 WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Terri McCormick Roger Roth WI 14-Sep -0.3 Toss-Up WI 8 54
55 AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby AL 1-Jun -0.5 Toss-Up AL 2 55
56 CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer CA 8-Jun -0.5 Toss-Up CA 11 56
57 GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott GA 20-Jul -0.5 Toss-Up GA 8 57
58 NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson NC 4-May -0.5 Toss-Up NC 8 58
59 NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth Thomas DeChiaro NY 14-Sep -0.5 Toss-Up NY 19 59
60 AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jesse Kelly AZ 24-Aug -0.7 Leans D AZ 8 60
61 MA 10 Open D (Delahunt) Open D Jeff Perry Joe Malone Ray Kasperowicz MA 14-Sep -0.7 Leans D MA 10 61
62 PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick PA 18-May -0.7 Leans D PA 8 62
63 TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Quico Canseco TX 13-Apr -0.7 Leans D TX 23 63
64 ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador ID 25-May -0.8 Leans D ID 1 64
65 MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler MO 3-Aug -0.8 Leans D MO 4 65
66 OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs OH 4-May -0.8 Leans D OH 18 66
67 VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith VA 8-Jun -0.8 Leans D VA 9 67
68 PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns PA 18-May -1.0 Leans D PA 12 68
69 CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton CO 10-Aug -1.0 Leans D CO 3 69
70 DE AL Dem Primary Open R Glen Urquhart Michele Rollins Rose Izzo DE 14-Sep -1.0 Leans D DE AL 70
71 NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan NJ 8-Jun -1.0 Leans D NJ 3 71
72 NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela NM 1-Jun -1.0 Leans D NM 1 72
73 NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler George Demos Chris Cox NY 14-Sep -1.0 Leans D NY 1 73
74 NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson NY 14-Sep -1.0 Leans D NY 20 74
75 NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Doug Hoffman Matt Doheny NY 14-Sep -1.0 Leans D NY 23 75
76 OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley OH 4-May -1.0 Leans D OH 13 76
77 OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun OR 18-May -1.0 Leans D OR 5 77
78 IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski IN 4-May -1.2 Leans D IN 2 78
79 KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr KY 8-May -1.2 Leans D KY 6 79
80 TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais TN 5-Aug -1.2 Leans D TN 4 80
81 VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian VA 8-Jun -1.2 Leans D VA 11 81
82 FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West FL 24-Aug -1.3 Leans D FL 22 82
83 LA 2 Cedric Richmond Incumbent R Joseph Cao LA 28-Aug -1.3 Leans D LA 2 83
84 NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm Michael Allegretti NY 14-Sep -1.3 Leans D NY 13 84
85 WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D John Koster WA 17-Aug -1.3 Leans D WA 2 85
86 CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran CA 8-Jun -1.7 Likely D CA 47 86
87 MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski MI 3-Aug -1.7 Likely D MI 9 87
88 NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Jeff Miller NC 4-May -1.7 Likely D NC 4 88
89 CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella CT 10-Aug -1.8 Likely D CT 4 89
90 GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Mike Keown GA 20-Jul -1.8 Likely D 90
91 IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh IL 2-Feb -1.8 Likely D IL 8 91
92 IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Bobby Schilling IL 2-Feb -1.8 Likely D IL 17 92
93 NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle NY 14-Sep -1.8 Likely D NY 25 93
94 PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall PA 18-May -1.8 Likely D PA 17 94
95 PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus PA 18-May -2.0 Likely D PA 4 95
96 CO 7 Ed Perlmulter Incumbent D Ryan Frazier CO 10-Aug -2.2 Likely D CO 7 96
97 CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri CT 10-Aug -2.2 Likely D CT 5 97
98 MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer MN 14-Sep -2.3 Likely D MN 1 98

1 posted on 09/11/2010 11:44:17 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Thank you for the information! This is encouraging.


2 posted on 09/11/2010 11:47:46 AM PDT by getbillnow (the NYTIMES ought to thank the God they don't believe in that I obey the law.)
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To: InterceptPoint

I dont know what some of these “experts” are smoking. Any number of the toss-ups are clearly leaning R. Perriello is toast in VA. So is Pomeroy in ND and Kanjorski in PA.

I could go on and on, but you get my point.


3 posted on 09/11/2010 11:49:54 AM PDT by freespirited
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To: freespirited
I could go on and on, but you get my point.

The Experts are just SLOW. But they come around a little every week. They will not go against the poll data but they need some time to absorb it and they want to see multiple polls from someone besides one of the candidates.

4 posted on 09/11/2010 11:52:20 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: getbillnow

Note that the amount of cash these Dem candidates have is double or triple what their Republican opposition has. Are the Democrats funneling unused porkulus cash to these races?
Inquiring minds want to know.


5 posted on 09/11/2010 11:58:02 AM PDT by kittymyrib
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To: freespirited

Anyone in Heath Schuler’s district think he will get re-elected?


6 posted on 09/11/2010 11:58:55 AM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ...


7 posted on 09/11/2010 12:05:46 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping!


8 posted on 09/11/2010 12:14:05 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: freespirited

OK! I’m going w/you on this.

There is NO reason why it can’t be a clean sweep.


9 posted on 09/11/2010 12:18:21 PM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: InterceptPoint; Clintonfatigued
>> The Experts are just SLOW. But they come around a little every week. They will not go against the poll data but they need some time to absorb it and they want to see multiple polls from someone besides one of the candidates. <<

Indeed. At least IL-17 finally made the "competitive" when the incumbent RAT has been struggling in the polls for months and the NRCC took notice long ago. Michelle Bachmann just announced the other day she's supporting GOP challenger Bobby Schilling. The national party realized this was no longer "safe" for the RATs long before the "experts" did.

I like the previous system of listing vulnerable RATs by state rather than in order how "vulnerable" they're perceived to be. Make it's easier to organize and focus our efforts by region.

10 posted on 09/11/2010 12:18:51 PM PDT by BillyBoy (Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: InterceptPoint
Some combination of adding new races and experts moving opinions has added to more expected seats for the GOP.

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
09-Apr-10 199 204.77 210 0.18% 25
16-Apr-10 199 205.09 211 0.22% 26
22-Apr-10 200 205.28 211 0.37% 26
01-May-10 201 206.22 212 0.73% 27
08-May-10 201 206.33 212 0.66% 27
19-Jun-10 203 208.44 214 2.29% 29
10-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.43% 29
17-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.34% 29
24-Jul-10 203 209.25 215 3.37% 30
31-Jul-10 203 209.06 215 2.96% 30
07-Aug-10 203 209.15 215 3.11% 30
14-Aug-10 204 209.33 215 3.33% 30
21-Aug-10 204 209.86 216 4.47% 30
28-Aug-10 205 210.91 217 7.03% 31
04-Sep-10 206 211.88 218 10.45% 32
11-Sep-10 208 213.67 220 20.31% 34

The poll gathering at KHR is being enhanced, so I will have to wait awhile for the poll-based House predictions.

And in the Senate...

Their were some more break-out movements in the polls this week as Rasmussen began including leaners in his results. In California, Carly Fiorina regained the lead over Barbara Boxer, jumping up 5% in the polls to Boxer's 3% gain. The Illinois race also saw a switch in leaders as Mark Kirk overtook Alexi Giannioulias. And, recent entry West Virginia is still closing as John Raese gains another percent on Joe Manchin. The one bright spot for Democrats this week was Connecticut, where Richard Blumenthal gained another 2% on Linda McMahon, pushing Connecticut beyond the margin of error. The net result for the week is a Republican pick-up of an additional expected seat, bringing the the expected gain to 9. That is a one seat movement in each of the past two weeks.

Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10		 GOP
Senate
Seats
EV		 GOP
Senate
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 51		 GOP
Gain
17-Jul-10 47 48.84 50 6.95% 7
24-Jul-10 47 48.95 50 7.69% 7
31-Jul-10 47 48.18 50 1.29% 7
07-Aug-10 47 48.13 50 1.46% 7
14-Aug-10 47 48.46 50 2.92% 7
21-Aug-10 47 48.69 50 3.05% 7
28-Aug-10 47 48.86 50 5.88% 7
04-Sep-10 48 49.21 51 14.19% 8
11-Sep-10 49 50.08 52 37.67% 9

Another good week.

-PJ

11 posted on 09/11/2010 12:24:11 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: BillyBoy
I like the previous system of listing vulnerable RATs by state rather than in order how "vulnerable" they're perceived to be. Make it's easier to organize and focus our efforts by region.

We didn't change the system. It's just another way of looking at the data. I generally alternate between various views of the Master List on this regular Saturday FR post.

Here is the list you are after: www.keyhouseraces.com/masterlist

12 posted on 09/11/2010 12:26:37 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: getbillnow

Both, the GOP and conservatives need to be very cautious about the general election! GOP/conservative voters may decide not to vote, if they think that the upcoming election is “in the bag” for GOP/conservative candidates!


13 posted on 09/11/2010 12:27:27 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (If leftist legislation that's already in place really can't be ended by non-leftists, then what?)
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To: InterceptPoint

BTTT


14 posted on 09/11/2010 12:28:07 PM PDT by E.G.C.
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To: InterceptPoint

Thank you!


15 posted on 09/11/2010 12:29:20 PM PDT by unkus
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To: InterceptPoint

Thank you!


16 posted on 09/11/2010 12:31:16 PM PDT by unkus
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To: InterceptPoint

BUMP.

Great list, looking good.

The “experts” are reluctantly coming around (and, no doubt, hating every minute of it).


17 posted on 09/11/2010 12:36:31 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Wow, KY03 Yarmouth, CA20 Costa and IL17 Seem to come out of Nowhere!!!!


18 posted on 09/11/2010 12:43:55 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: BillyBoy

Billy; do you know anything about the Bean\Joe Walsh race?


19 posted on 09/11/2010 12:46:19 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: InterceptPoint

“The Experts are just SLOW...and they want to see multiple polls from someone besides one of the candidates.”

Even conventional lame stream media and media push polling wisdom is beginning to recognize the obivous that will happen on 11/2.

That said GOTV!!!


20 posted on 09/11/2010 12:47:50 PM PDT by SeattleBruce (T minus 53 days to SMACKDOWN - Tea Party like it's 1773! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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