Posted on 09/01/2010 8:57:26 PM PDT by dangus
Polls have been conducted in a small minority of districts, but there are still plenty to show that Republicans are poised to take control of Congress. (The more competitive districts are most likely to have polls taken in them, of course.) After checking Wikipedia, Real Clear Politics and googling the names of every remaining candidate in Republican-leaning districts with Democratic congressmen, I present the poll data to show Republicans already leading in plenty of districts to overwhelm the Democrats' current 39-seat majority. Based only on this data (excluding hundreds of districts with no polling found), I predict 52-60 seats gained. (I'd guesstimate that the Republicans could win an additional dozen or more unpolled districts.)
39 Districts where Republican challengers are already ahead:(Republicans listed first.)
AZ 8 Patton 45, Giffords 44 R+4
AR 1 Crawford 40, Causey 34 R+8
AR 2 Griffin 52, Elliott 35 R+5
CO 3 Tipton 49, Salazar 43 (internal) R+5
FL 2 Southerland 52, Boyd 37 R+6
FL 8 Long 46, Grayson 38 R+2 (Unpolled Webster beat Long in primary)
FL 22 West 44, Klein 42 D+1
FL 24 Miller 44, Kosmas 41 R+4
IL 8 Walsh 38, Bean 37 R+1
IL 10 Kinzinger 52, Halvorson 32 D+6
IL 14 Hultgren 44, Foster 37 R+1
IL 17 Schilling 45, Hare 32 D+3
IA 3 Zaun 51, Boswell 41 D+1
MI 1 Benishek 45, McDowell 29 MI +4
MI 13 Clarke 44, Cheeks-Kilpatrick 31 D+31
MI 7 Walberg 50, Schauer 40 R+2
MS 1 Nunnelee 50, Childers 42 R+14
NH 1 Giunta 42, Shea-Porter 38 D+0
NH 2 Bass 44, Swett 27 D+3
NM 1 Barela 51, Heinrich 45 D+5
NC 2 Ellmers 39, Etheridge 38 R+2
ND Berg 53, Pomeroy 44 R+10
OH 1 Chabot 47, Driehaus 45 D+1
OH 15 Stivers 49, Kilroy 44 D+1
OH 16 Renacci 49, Boccieri 35 R+4
PA 3 Kelly 52, Dahlkemper 38 R+3
PA 7 Meehan 47, Lentz 26 D+3
PA 10 Marino 52, Carney 37 R+8
PA 12 Burns 44, Critz 40 R+1
SD Noem 51, Herseth-Sandlin 42 R+9
TN 8 Fincher 47, Herron 37 R+6
TX 17 Flores 53, Edwards 41 R+20
TX 23 Canseco 43, Rodriguez 37
VA 2 Rigell 51, Nye 35 R+5
VA 5 Hurt 49, Perriello 43 R+5
VA 11 Fimian 40, Connolly 35 D+2
WA 3 Herrerra 54, Heck 41 D+0
WI 7 Duffy 42, Lassa 33 D+3
WI 8 Ribble 49, Kagan 39 R+2
5 more open seats in Republican leaning districts
TN 6 R+13 (no polls, but open seat)
LA 3 R+12 (no polls, but open seat)
IN 8 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
WV 1 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
NY 29 R+5 (no polls, but open seat)
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16 districts with Republicans close to or tied with Democrat incumbents, with the incumbent well below 50%
CA 11 Harmer 41, McNerney 42
CT 4 Dabicella 42 , Himes 46 D+6
GA 8 Scott 39, Marshall 44 R+10
IN 2 Wlaorski 44, Donnelly 46 R+2
MD 1 Kratovil 44/36, Harris 39/39 R+13
MO 4 Hartzler 42, Skelton 45 R+8
NV 3 Titus 43/42/44/40, Heck 42/40/49/40 D+2 (4 polls showing see-sawing leads)
NM 2 Pearce 46, Teague 47 R+6
NY 1 Altschuler 45, Bishop 47 D+0
NC 7 Pantano 42, McIntyre 45 R+5
NC 8 Johnson 35, Kissell 41R+2
NC 11 Miller 44, Shuler 45 R+6
OH 13 Ganley 41, Sutton 43 D+5
OH 18 Gibbs 43, Space 43 R+7 (internal)
SC 5 Mulvaney 41, Spratt 43 R+7
VA 9 Boucher 42, Griffith 39 R+11
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6 Republican-leaning districts with Democrats still leading (Democrat listed first)
AL 2 Bright 54, Roby 30 (Feb) R+16
ID 1 Minnick 37, Labrador 27 R+17
IN 9 Jill 41, Young 34 R+6
KY 6 Chandler 46, Barr 32 R+9
OK 2 Boren 45, Thompson 25 R+14
WV 3 Rahall 53, Maynard 37 R+6
(The letter-and-number value after each poll result indicates the Cook Presidential Vote Index for the district. This is a measure of how much Democrat- or Republican- leaning a district is, based on 2004 and 2008 votes for president. For instance, "R+6" means that the district votes 6% more Republican, on average, than the average district. All poll results are the most recent, independent polls, where available.)
Please post any poll data you have, to help make this list more complete.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/rep-chet-edwards-emerges-as-mu.html
I am nervous about Edwards..He is a dem in a neavily R district and always pulls it out..
Flores may be ahead in the polls for now but Edwards just put out his first attack ad. on Flores.
Polling here in S. AZ seems to have really taken off.
I have been telphone polled four times since the primary last week - with two of them being real people on the line.
I’m in Gabby Giffords - the solar queen - district and it looks like Jesse Kelley is picking up steam here. On the 10:00 pm news, there are often back-to-back ads for Kelley and Giffords.
The list in post #1 is old - Patton (the AZ RINO party pick) lost out in the primary to Jesse Kelley.
Indeed!
We must behave like we are not victorious.
We must work HARD to make that a reality.
Never, ever, ASSUME we will take over the House.
There are some old polls here - some don’t even have the candidates that are actually running.
I’ll get Blake’s office to send it to me.
I saw a Dan Heck TV commercial and thought he was a repub.
Actually he is democrat and his commercial did not show that.
He is running anti-Wasshington DC positions in his ad.
His opponent is Jaime Herrera, GOP candidate. She is ahead in polls.
IL-17: Schilling (R) 45%, Hare (D) 32% D+3
Could someone please explain to me why the mainstream media continues to insist this race is "Likely Rat"? Phil Hare's been in free fall for sometime now. Schilling is polling better against Hare than many Republican challengers running in majority GOP districts!
And the other races in my home state:
IL-8: Walsh (R) 38%, Bean (D) 37% R+1
Walsh making a comeback and taking Bean out would be the upset of the year in this state. I'd love to see Bean gone. She's become everything she attacked Phil Crane for.
IL-14 Hultgren (R) 44% , Foster (D) 37% R+1
Looking good for taking back "Speaker Hastert's old seat". Maybe Roskam & Hultgren's state seat is becoming a training ground for future Congressmen. ;-)
IL-10 Kinzinger (R) 52%, Halvorson (D) 32% D+6
Are they mixing up IL-10 with IL-11? IL-10 is Kirk's seat, it's Dold (R) vs. Seals (D) there. It went to Obama by 61%, sounds like a much more likely contender for "D+6" than IL-11. IL-11 was drawn to be about 52% GOP - 48% DEM in 2000. I doubt Obama carried the Will Co.-to-Kankakee regions by big enough margins to make it D+6 in comparison to the "average" district.
Kinzinger is doing great and on track to beat Halvonson and take back IL-11 (Jerry Weller's old seat). But Bob Dold is struggling against 2-time loser Dan Seals in IL-10. Dold needs to more of his own man and stop trying to be Mark Kirk lite. I think Kirk fatigue is creating a backlash there. Kirk won twice against Seals in heavy RAT turnout years, there's no reason why Dold shouldn't be beating him in a year with heavy GOP support.
Yeah, he despised the leadership so much that he went ahead and voted for Nancy Pelosi as speaker. Minnick MUST be defeated. It’s guys like him whose sole purpose is to pad the majority’s numbers and then they are given a pass to vote like conservatives when their votes aren’t needed. Voting for Minnick is no different than voting for Pelosi.
More on Mike Grimm NY 13’s next Congressman :
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2581800/posts
Moving America forward is coming to Staten Island today.
Ping
VA 2 Rigell 51, Nye 35 R+5
VA 5 Hurt 49, Perriello 43 R+5
VA 11 Fimian 40, Connolly 35 D+2
Some good news for the Old Dominion. Nye is a finger-in-the wind type with no real guiding sense of principle and Perriello is an 0bamabot to the core.
Isnt Dingell one of the oldest members of congress?
I think Dingell is 84.
WAY past time to go I think.
Blake Farenthold just announced on September 20, that he has been accepted by the The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) "Young Guns" program.
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