Turn in your VRWC card, mister. You're obviously beaten.
Posted on 08/28/2010 11:28:54 AM PDT by no dems
Don’t confuse the dramatic swell of the Republican tide that is becoming increasingly evident to the pundits of the country with party trend. Right before Election Day, the numbers will get even better and presage an even larger Republican victory.
Party trend usually indicates itself in the ten days before an election when voters who do not typically follow politics closely tune in and decide for whom to vote. Until this window, they usually describe themselves to pollsters as “undecided.” There will be a huge Republican party trend this year, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The huge Republican poll numbers these days do not reflect the last minute switches typical of less involved voters but rather mirror the disappointment with Obama and with Congress among voters who do follow politics closely that has accumulated over the past year and a half. It is this reappraisal of their political opinions that is occasioning the big swing toward Republicans in the 2010 election.
The ranks of these disaffected voters who are now turning against Obama and the Democrats will soon be joined by the less involved voters who will come around in the week or ten days before the election.
From the perception of the pollster, party trend is a bit like a curveball thrown by a pitcher to a batter. The election statistics remain fairly static for weeks or even months with little change as the race unfolds through September and early through mid October. Like a fastball that comes in straight and true.
Then, suddenly, as the election nears, the vote swings wildly to one side or the other, akin to a curve ball that breaks as it approaches the batter – usually too late for him to make an adjustment. Suddenly, the tied races show up as decisive victories for the side that benefits from party trend. And the unwinnable races come into play.
2010 is a year like no other in the magnitude of the partisan shift going on. It dwarfs 1994 and even 1974 in its order of magnitude. But we haven’t yet seen the full impact of the last minute party shift that will take place. Plenty of voters who are now undecided are yet to be heard from and, when they are, they will impact the results decisively.
In which direction? Most likely they will transform a massive Republican win into an even more massive victory. The uninvolved voters who will decide late in the process are likely to break the same way the rest of the country is breaking – toward the Republicans. Surveys suggest that they share the disenchantment of the participating voters with the economy and Obama’s performance. They have just not focused on the coming election.
Democrats hope that the less involved voters are also less educated and more likely to be the young or minority voters on whom their party depends. But the lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for Obama indicates that these voters are likely to decide by staying home. In the most recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics study, 54% of Republicans said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the 2010 elections while only 28% of Democrats felt the same way.
So the net result is that for those who anticipate a major Republican win in 2010, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
The Gelding Old Party will do nothing but raise taxes. They won’t cut a fart from any budget. The FIX is IN once again.
So there is not need to vote, huh? The fix is in. No one can do anything. Why bother to even post then?
I find it hard to follow your reasoning. “The fix is in” ?????
That’s a little too conspiratorial for me. Sorry.
Could be good. Simply depends on what they do with it. If it is more of the same ‘big government, government should be there to help, government knows best, government is there to protect you’ nonsense, then the point will be moot.
"we understand that this current regime is intent on destroying the America you once knew and loved. Our promise to you is to restore the America that made you proud on Memorial Day and the Fourth of July.
We pledge to roll back the creeping socialism that is stealing your freedoms and your economic security. We pledge to repair the effects of craven and cowardly foreign policies weakening our world standing. Vote on November 2. For us. For America.
As the conservative curve ball sharply breaks over the plate all we will hear is a loud swish as the mighty progressives (in their shocking pink uniforms) strike out!
40 seats gets the GOP into the majority. 80 seats means solid control.
Hence the break in the curveball. It was just the opposite in 2008 where many Republicans saw no reason to back a loser like McCain and stayed home. Even though he isn't on the ballot, 2010 will be referendum on Obama.
It will be the first chance most Americans will have to say whether they like the way he's running the country or don't. Watch how many Dems will try to distance themselves from Obama as Election Day draws near. Don't let them get away with it, particularly the ones who voted for ObamaCare and CapnTrade.
Turn in your VRWC card, mister. You're obviously beaten.
“...The GOP will do nothing but raise taxes.
They won’t cut a fart from any budget.
The FIX is IN once again...”
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Get out of my foxhole.
Go hide behind a tree somewhere.
GOP still doesnt get it.
GOP still doesnt get it.
I am glad to see Dick Morris join me in my long standing prediction. For over a year, my Tagline has said what NO ONE else was saying.
2010 will see 100+!
Close to 200 is NOT unrealistic, although it is exceedingly optimistic.
The real issue, like the first naysayer pointed out, is SO WHAT?
What if we DO win 160 seats? And then DO NOT DO ANYTHING?
Well, we will get CREAMED in 2012, Obama will win reelection and America will DIE.
It is just that simple.
We MUST not just stop more damage, but REPEAL about everything since 1988.
I hope there is a massive conservative Republican victory this November. However, such fond hopes can be baseless, if massive voter fraud takes place. Imagine all the resources of government state, federal and local, legislative, executive and judicial moving in unison to elect or place in office Democrats. Democratic soldiers being ACORN and ACORN like organizations. Already “The Divine One” is stretching forth his mighty arms and the dead are starting to rise from their graves with pre-marked ballots clutched in their once dead hands. We are not home free until the Republicans are actually sworn in.
“The Gelding Old Party will do nothing but raise taxes. They won’t cut a fart from any budget. The FIX is IN once again.”
In the interests of balance:
The GOP is listening carefully to the TEA party and others who are going to support them in November. They will find it in their interests to reflect their supporter’s wants and desires and they are very much aware of what is being said out here in flyover country.
I would crawl through live fire (and deliver same) to vote this November.
Our assignment is to run up the numbers so incredibly high that they cannot manufacture enough votes. Get out and hustle.
I have signed up to volenteer have you?
54% - it should be 100%.
I got a call from a pollster the other night and told her i would have to be shot in the back of the head from voting in Novembers’ elections.
I will be an election judge or poll worker. I am also running a Facebook site that will be featuring local conservatives in interviews and I will be live blogging the “Meet and Greets” for the Repub Party in Harris County.
Much work needs to be done.
The Facebook page is “Katy Texas Conservatives”
It is only about a week old so we are still getting up and running, but I urge everyone to log on and add to the current discussions.
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