Posted on 08/28/2010 11:10:17 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This weeks news:
It was a BIG WEEK for our "Experts" and as usual the changes were highly favorable to the Republicans. We had a total of 55 updates this week, the largest number we've recorded for a single week. CQ Politics finally woke up up so we will lay off of them for awhile. RCP also came through with several updates. And Sabato has promised a major update on September 2nd.
See below for the summary.
We have winners in the Arizona and Florida primaries.
The Master List has been updated to include the winners of all completed primaries The "Race at a Glance" entries on the KHR Home Page have also been updated to include the Arizona and Florida primaries and all funding data, polls and "Expert Ratings" have been updated as well. Our normal procedure is to update the financial data and Expert Ratings once a week but to update the poll data as we find it.
So please send us links to any poll data that you think we've missed. You can always see our latest 3 polls on the KHR Home Page and we also list the most recent poll for each district on the KHR Polls Page.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.177 from last weeks -.251. That's a very big jump and reflects the fact that the Republicans won this weeks rating upgrade race by a huge margin. Take a look at our KeyHouseRaces Experts Page to see where the changes in ratings were this week - lots of RED entries. For the newbies, the -.177 figure means that the average "Expert Rating" for every race on our list is rated a Toss-Up but slightly favoring the Dems. If the index gets into positive territory (where it seems to be heading) then the average rating for all 93 races would be Toss-Up with a Republican tilt.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page
We've added a new page to show the Master List in a ranked order last week and there is now a link to this page on KeyHouseRaces Home Page. The ranking is based on the average Expert Rating of each district by our six "Experts" with the Most Likely Republican Winners at the top and the Most Likely Dem Winners at the bottom. The fight for control of the House is in the middle of this list where the Toss-Up races meet the Leans Ds. That's the ones we have to win.
You can see the ranked version of the Master List HERE .
Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for all the remaining Primaries:
August 28: Louisiana
September 14: District of Columbia, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin
September 18: Hawaii
Kate,
Go Gibson Go!
from,
Pete
Tedisco ‘09, eastern Dutchess
They are clueless.
vaudine
Every week your thread is getting better and better. And I think the experts out there are noticing YOU, too.
I’ll bet you’re really enjoying yoursef, too!
The 6th District went for McCain over Obama by a 55-43 margin two years ago, and while Chandler is a "Blue Dog Democrat", this race will probably be decided by less than five percent.
Dick Morris presaged on FOX this week that the GOP will pick up 80 Seats on November 2nd.
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I heard him say that. But it still seems like a bit of a stretch to me. OTOH, 50 is starting to look like a real possibility. But right now we are at about 35.
We could take OH-02 off the list but ....... not yet. It is in the bag for sure.
Looking good. The Experts are still trailing the pollsters - as anticipated. A few more polls and you are going to break through that 39 seat pickup threshold.
10 days before the Election may have been when the trend starts in the past, I suspect we will see a sharper, earlier break this Election.
The Dhimmis have nothing to run on but Cash, and they do have a large amount of cash on hand, that is the one firewall they posses.
Goodbye Pelosi.
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And hello to ??? Will the Tea Party force the choice of a true conservative as Speaker?
Illinois 11 is definitely leaning (R) Halvorsen is toast.
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That’s my take. This one’s a winner - Kinzinger is a great candidate.
Every week your thread is getting better and better. And I think the experts out there are noticing YOU, too. I’ll bet you’re really enjoying yoursef, too!
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I confess -It is a labor of love. But it is a huge amount of work. And yes, the experts are noticing us. They should since we bug them enough. In fact we are a very convenient place for them to go to see how their competitors see the races. I think they do that.
If there is only one seat in play in NC, there is no great shakes comeing to the congress.
Thanks for the ping, brother.
KY-06 is one of the most recent additions to our list (along with OR-05). It would be so nice to see this one flip to the Pubbies.
Well, Pelosi is on the bottom of the barrel of the 435 Congress critters. We are still going to get a considerable upgrade. It looks like we are going to get Boehner.
I agree on Schilling in 17; leaning his way. It is his to lose. Likewise with Kinsinger in 11 and Hultgren in 14. They’ll win unless they do/say something stupid and commit suicide (political).
IL 8 is the one where we blew the opportunity. For some reason the Republican primary voters chose a weak and flawed candidate. So it is our own fault that we lose that one.
Although unlikely, a Pollack win in Chicago is conceivable.
I live literally next door to 11 and know a ton of people in that district. Not a single one is voting Halvorsen, they're all fed up with the D's and are willing to do anything to stop the Obama agenda. I suspect we're going to see alot of that come November 2nd (which can't come quick enough for me!)
I'd caution against under-estimating Foster in 14. He took that district handily after Hastert retired, and that district had been solidly (R) for a very long time.
And is there anything wrong with that? A Minority Leader's job is to hold his caucus together. Boehner successfully accomplished that.
Some people object to him as an ineffective "spokesman". But that's not his job -- as a Minority Leader, nor as a Speaker.
The test will be whether he can continue to hold the caucus together and pass (and repeal) the legislation that we want -- in the face of united liberal opposition and a media assault.
It isn't about how he performs on camera, it's how he performs in the cloakroom.
Thanks. Still a long way to go.
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