Skip to comments.Key House Races - 28 August 2010 Update - Biggest Gains Yet by the Republicans
Posted on 08/28/2010 11:10:17 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This weeks news:
It was a BIG WEEK for our "Experts" and as usual the changes were highly favorable to the Republicans. We had a total of 55 updates this week, the largest number we've recorded for a single week. CQ Politics finally woke up up so we will lay off of them for awhile. RCP also came through with several updates. And Sabato has promised a major update on September 2nd.
See below for the summary.
We have winners in the Arizona and Florida primaries.
The Master List has been updated to include the winners of all completed primaries The "Race at a Glance" entries on the KHR Home Page have also been updated to include the Arizona and Florida primaries and all funding data, polls and "Expert Ratings" have been updated as well. Our normal procedure is to update the financial data and Expert Ratings once a week but to update the poll data as we find it.
So please send us links to any poll data that you think we've missed. You can always see our latest 3 polls on the KHR Home Page and we also list the most recent poll for each district on the KHR Polls Page.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.177 from last weeks -.251. That's a very big jump and reflects the fact that the Republicans won this weeks rating upgrade race by a huge margin. Take a look at our KeyHouseRaces Experts Page to see where the changes in ratings were this week - lots of RED entries. For the newbies, the -.177 figure means that the average "Expert Rating" for every race on our list is rated a Toss-Up but slightly favoring the Dems. If the index gets into positive territory (where it seems to be heading) then the average rating for all 93 races would be Toss-Up with a Republican tilt.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page
We've added a new page to show the Master List in a ranked order last week and there is now a link to this page on KeyHouseRaces Home Page. The ranking is based on the average Expert Rating of each district by our six "Experts" with the Most Likely Republican Winners at the top and the Most Likely Dem Winners at the bottom. The fight for control of the House is in the middle of this list where the Toss-Up races meet the Leans Ds. That's the ones we have to win.
You can see the ranked version of the Master List HERE .
Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for all the remaining Primaries:
August 28: Louisiana
September 14: District of Columbia, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin
September 18: Hawaii
|AL||2||Bobby Bright||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||-0.5||Toss-Up||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||AL||2|
|AR||1||Open D||Toss-Up||0.5||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Mod R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||AR||1|
|AR||2||Open D||Likely R||2.0||Leans R||Likely R||Safe R||Likely R||Likely R||Likely R||AR||2|
|AZ||1||Ann Kirkpatrick||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.7||Toss-Up||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||AZ||1|
|AZ||5||Harold Mitchell||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.8||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||AZ||5|
|AZ||8||Gabrielle Giffords||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.7||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||AZ||8|
|CA||3||Dan Lungren||Incumbent R||Leans R||1.3||Leans R||Leans R||Mod R||Leans R||Leans R||Likely R||CA||3|
|CA||11||Jerry McNerney||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.8||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||CA||11|
|CA||47||Loretta Sanchez||Incumbent D||Likely D||-2.3||Safe D||Likely D||Safe D||Leans D||Safe D||Likely D||CA||47|
|CO||3||John Salazar||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.3||Leans D||Likely D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Leans D||CO||3|
|CO||4||Betsy Markey||Incumbent D||Leans R||0.7||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Likely R||Leans R||CO||4|
|CT||4||Jim Himes||Incumbent D||Likely D||-2.3||Likely D||Safe D||Safe D||Likely D||Safe D||Leans D||CT||4|
|CT||5||Christopher Murphy||Incumbent D||Likely D||-2.2||Likely D||Safe D||Safe D||Likely D||Likely D||Leans D||CT||5|
|DE||AL||Open R||Leans D||-1.0||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Leans D||DE||AL|
|FL||2||Allen Boyd||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.0||Leans D||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||FL||2|
|FL||8||Alan Grayson||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||FL||8|
|FL||12||Open R||Likely R||2.3||Likely R||Likely R||Safe R||Likely R||Safe R||Likely R||FL||12|
|FL||22||Ron Klein||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.5||Leans D||Likely D||Mod D||Likely D||Likely D||Toss-Up||FL||22|
|FL||24||Suzanne Kosmas||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.5||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Leans R||Leans R||FL||24|
|FL||25||Open R||Leans R||1.2||Leans R||Leans R||Weak R||Leans R||Leans R||Likely R||FL||25|
|GA||8||Jim Marshall||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.7||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||GA||8|
|HI||1||Charles Djou||Incumbent R||Toss-Up||-0.2||Leans D||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans D||HI||1|
|IA||3||Leonard Boswell||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||-0.5||Leans D||Leans D||Weak R||Toss-Up||Leans D||Leans D||IA||3|
|ID||1||Walter Minnick||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.8||Toss-Up||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Leans D||ID||1|
|IL||8||Melissa Bean||Incumbent D||Likely D||-1.8||Likely D||Safe D||Safe D||Likely D||Toss-Up||Leans D||IL||8|
|IL||10||Open R||Toss-Up||0.2||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||IL||10|
|IL||11||Debbie Halvorson||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.3||Leans D||Toss-Up||Mod R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||IL||11|
|IL||14||Bill Foster||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.2||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||IL||14|
|IN||2||Joe Donnelly||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.3||Likely D||Leans D||Mod D||Leans D||Leans D||Leans D||IN||2|
|IN||8||Open D||Toss-Up||0.5||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Leans R||Toss-Up||Leans R||IN||8|
|IN||9||Baron Hill||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||-0.2||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak D||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||IN||9|
|KS||3||Open D||Leans R||0.8||Toss-Up||Leans R||Weak R||Leans R||Leans R||Leans R||KS||3|
|KY||6||Ben Chandler||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.3||Likely D||Leans D||Mod D||Leans D||Leans D||Leans D||6||0|
|LA||2||Joseph Cao||Incumbent R||Leans D||-1.3||Leans D||Likely D||Weak D||Toss-Up||Likely D||Likely D||LA||2|
|LA||3||Open D||Likely R||2.2||Leans R||Safe R||Safe R||Likely R||Likely R||Likely R||LA||3|
|MA||10||Open D||Leans D||-0.7||Leans D||Leans D||Weak R||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||MA||10|
|MD||1||Frank Kratovil||Incumbent D||Leans R||0.7||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Leans R||Leans R||MD||1|
|MI||1||Open D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Mod R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||MI||1|
|MI||7||Mark Schauer||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||MI||7|
|MI||9||Gary Peters||Incumbent D||Likely D||-1.8||Leans D||Likely D||Mod D||Likely D||Safe D||Leans D||MI||9|
|MN||1||Tim Walz||Incumbent D||Likely D||-2.3||Likely D||Likely D||Safe D||Likely D||Safe D||Likely D||MN||1|
|MN||6||Michele Bachmann||Incumbent R||Likely R||2.3||Likely R||Likely R||Safe R||Likely R||Safe R||Likely R||MN||6|
|MO||4||Ike Skelton||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||MO||4|
|MS||1||Travis Childers||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.5||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||MS||1|
|NC||8||Larry Kissell||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||-0.5||Toss-Up||Leans D||Weak D||Toss-Up||Likely D||Leans R||NC||8|
|ND||AL||Earl Pomeroy||Incumbent D||Leans R||0.7||Leans R||Toss-Up||Mod R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||ND||AL|
|NE||2||Lee Terry||Incumbent R||Likely R||2.0||Likely R||Likely R||Mod R||Likely R||Likely R||Likely R||NE||2|
|NH||1||Carol Shea-Porter||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.5||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||NH||1|
|NH||2||Open D||Toss-Up||0.5||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||NH||2|
|NJ||3||John Adler||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Leans D||NJ||3|
|NM||1||Martin Heinrich||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||NM||1|
|NM||2||Harry Teague||Incumbent D||Leans R||0.7||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Leans R||Leans R||NM||2|
|NV||3||Dina Titus||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||NV||3|
|NY||1||Tim Bishop||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||NY||1|
|NY||13||Mike McMahon||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.5||Likely D||Likely D||Mod D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||NY||13|
|NY||19||John Hall||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.8||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||NY||19|
|NY||20||Scott Murphy||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||NY||20|
|NY||23||Bill Owens||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||NY||23|
|NY||24||Mike Arcuri||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.2||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||NY||24|
|NY||25||Dan Maffei||Incumbent D||Likely D||-2.2||Likely D||Likely D||Safe D||Likely D||Safe D||Leans D||NY||25|
|NY||29||Open D||Likely R||2.2||Leans R||Safe R||Safe R||Likely R||Likely R||Likely R||NY||29|
|OH||1||Steve Driehaus||Incumbent D||Leans R||0.7||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Leans R||Leans R||OH||1|
|OH||2||Jean Schmidt||Incumbent R||Safe R||2.8||Safe R||Safe R||Mod R||Safe R||Safe R||Safe R||OH||2|
|OH||13||Betty Sutton||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.2||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||OH||13|
|OH||15||Mary Jo Kilroy||Incumbent D||Leans R||0.7||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Leans R||Leans R||OH||15|
|OH||16||John Boccieri||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.2||Leans D||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||OH||16|
|OH||18||Zach Space||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.8||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||OH||18|
|OR||5||Kurt Schrader||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.2||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||OR||5|
|PA||3||Kathleen Dahlkemper||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||-0.2||Leans D||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans D||PA||3|
|PA||4||Jason Altmire||Incumbent D||Likely D||-1.8||Likely D||Likely D||Mod D||Likely D||Likely D||Leans D||PA||4|
|PA||6||Jim Gerlach||Incumbent R||Likely R||1.8||Likely R||Likely R||Mod R||Likely R||Likely R||Leans R||PA||6|
|PA||7||Open D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||PA||7|
|PA||8||Patrick Murphy||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.7||Toss-Up||Leans D||Weak D||Toss-Up||Likely D||Toss-Up||PA||8|
|PA||10||Chris Carney||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.7||Leans D||Leans D||Weak R||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||PA||10|
|PA||11||Paul Kanjorski||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.5||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Mod R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||PA||11|
|PA||12||Mark Critz||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||PA||12|
|PA||17||Tim Holden||Incumbent D||Likely D||-1.8||Likely D||Likely D||Mod D||Likely D||Likely D||Leans D||PA||17|
|SC||5||John Spratt Jr.||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||-0.3||Leans D||Toss-Up||Weak D||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||SC||5|
|SD||AL||Stephanie Sandlin||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||SD||AL|
|TN||4||Lincoln Davis||Incumbent D||Likely D||-1.7||Safe D||Leans D||Mod D||Leans D||Likely D||Leans D||TN||4|
|TN||6||Open D||Likely R||2.2||Leans R||Safe R||Safe R||Likely R||Likely R||Likely R||TN||6|
|TN||8||Open D||Toss-Up||0.5||Leans R||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||TN||8|
|TX||17||Chet Edwards||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||TX||17|
|TX||23||Ciro Rodriguez||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.0||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||TX||23|
|VA||2||Glenn Nye||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.2||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||VA||2|
|VA||5||Tom Perriello||Incumbent D||Toss-Up||0.5||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Mod R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||VA||5|
|VA||9||Rick Boucher||Incumbent D||Leans D||-0.8||Leans D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Leans D||Toss-Up||VA||9|
|VA||11||Gerald Connolly||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.2||Leans D||Likely D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||VA||11|
|WA||3||Open D||Toss-Up||0.5||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Mod R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||WA||3|
|WA||8||Dave Reichert||Incumbent R||Leans R||1.3||Leans R||Leans R||Mod R||Likely R||Leans R||Leans R||WA||8|
|WI||7||Open D||Toss-Up||0.3||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak R||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Leans R||WI||7|
|WI||8||Steve Kagen||Incumbent D||Leans D||-1.2||Likely D||Leans D||Weak D||Leans D||Likely D||Toss-Up||WI||8|
|WV||1||Open D||Toss-Up||-0.2||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Weak D||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||WV||1|
|Rating and Color Code||Average Expert|
John Hall, (NY19) who’s as lefty as they come, came out against the mosque this week....he’s crappin in his pants and the campaign has not even moved into full swing yet...
Placemark and thank you!
It won’t work. Hayworth has the campaign cash to take him out and we’ve already started to get the mailers from her.
Luv you guys for all this hard work!
NY20 is lookin’ good. Since early July, 5 of the 6 ‘experts’ have changed their rating of NY20.
FReepers that want to adopt a contender district, and help turn NY 20 back-to-red, please take a look at Chris Gibson.
—talking to a couple Lib relatives yesterday. They got a tele/pollster re Obama, and said they would never ever vote for him again....hee
—and my Lib brother, who also voted for Obama, and usually votes dem, is searching his soul re which party really lost him big$$ to his 401k...etc
And, they are starting to realize the ‘teach someone to fish’ mantra I’ve always preached them
You can just ‘feel’ the energy on the ground here in NY20
I...can see November from my house
repeat, rinse, repeat
Dick Morris presaged on FOX this week that the GOP will pick up 80 Seats on November 2nd.
Check out this post re: how the Party Trend has not even set in yet, and that this years mid-terms will be a greater victory for the GOP than we now think.
Scott Tipton Leads John Salazar in New CO-3 Poll.
The Tipton for Congress campaign today released results of a telephone survey that demonstrates Republican businessman Scott Tipton leads Democrat Congressman John Salazar 49% to 43% in the 3rd Congressional District race.
Frazier Leads Perlmutter 40-39 (CO-7)
IL-17 - for some reason this has flown under the radar nationally, but Phil Hare is a weak incumbent and a poor campaigner with very bad poll numbers and a strong challenger, Bobby Schilling.
OH-2 - think you could just take this district off?
NC-7, NC-11 - very little information about these races so far but could emerge as competitive quickly, depending on what outside groups get involved with how much $
WA-2 - an interesting one to watch - the Republican nominee (John Koster) won more votes than the incumbent Democrat (Rick Larsen) in the jungle primary
GA-2 - if black turnout is low, Sanford Bishop could be in trouble in this district
OH looking great. Virtually every one of the people who came in during the 08 election is losing or in tossup mode.
Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.
This week, the polls cover 37% of the 92 races being tracked. 34 polls are being used out of 54 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 63%.
Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
And in the Senate...
This week saw the race in California tighten up as Carly Fiorina pulled within one percent of Barbara Boxer, Marco Rubio moved outside the margin of error against Charlie Crist in Florida, and Missouri's Roy Blunt moved outside the margin of error against Robin Carnahan. However, Illinois moved from a tie to favoring Alexi Giannoulias over Mark Kirk.
Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Gee, the Marxist have a lot to do if they expect to stay in power.
Bribes, blackmail, fraud..you name it, they’ll do it.
Republicans will win every one of those races in Pennsylvania. Count on it!
Good deal. Keep the pressure on. We need to give Strickland the gate, and I’d love to see the voters in OH 15 kick Mary Jo Kiljoy out on her DSA butt (I know I’ll do my part).
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