[Political Junkie Too]

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	25
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29
24-Jul-10	203	209.25	215	3.37%	30
31-Jul-10	203	209.06	215	2.96%	30
07-Aug-10	203	209.15	215	3.11%	30
14-Aug-10	204	209.33	215	3.33%	30
21-Aug-10	204	209.86	216	4.47%	30
28-Aug-10	205	210.91	217	7.03%	31

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

This week, the polls cover 37% of the 92 races being tracked. 34 polls are being used out of 54 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 63%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
31-Jul-10	207	212.12	217	8.64%	33
07-Aug-10	206	211.07	216	4.66%	32
14-Aug-10	206	211.04	216	5.02%	32
21-Aug-10	207	211.6	216	6.03%	32
28-Aug-10	211	215.2	220	25.97%	36

And in the Senate...

This week saw the race in California tighten up as Carly Fiorina pulled within one percent of Barbara Boxer, Marco Rubio moved outside the margin of error against Charlie Crist in Florida, and Missouri's Roy Blunt moved outside the margin of error against Robin Carnahan. However, Illinois moved from a tie to favoring Alexi Giannoulias over Mark Kirk.

Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

• California 1: +4% (R -1%)
• Colorado 2: No change (R +5%)
• Connecticut 1: No change (R -7%)
• Florida 1: +5% (R +10%) - Drops out of the MOE and is now SAFE
• Illinois 2: -2% (R -2%)
• Missouri 1: +4% (R +11%) - Drops out of the MOE and is now SAFE
• Nevada 2: No change (R +0%)
• Ohio 2: No change (R +8%) - Dropped out of the MOE last week and is now SAFE
• Washington 2: No change (R -4%)
• Wisconsin 1: No change (R +1%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (41), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
17-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7
24-Jul-10	47	48.95	50	7.69%	7
31-Jul-10	47	48.18	50	1.29%	7
07-Aug-10	47	48.13	50	1.46%	7
14-Aug-10	47	48.46	50	2.92%	7
21-Aug-10	47	48.69	50	3.05%	7
28-Aug-10	47	48.86	50	5.88%	7

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Oops... make that 93 races.

-PJ

[InterceptPoint]

Looking good. The Experts are still trailing the pollsters - as anticipated. A few more polls and you are going to break through that 39 seat pickup threshold.

[LS]

Thanks. Still a long way to go.