Posted on 08/15/2010 6:35:42 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
“I’m surprised to see Rubio getting such bad advice. I guess that being new to national statewide politics can make a candidate receptive to such a thing. Can prominent conservatives gain access to Rubio and persuade on the error of this approach?”
I hope, as you suggested, that once the primary shakes out, Rubio will return to his roots and to the attractive message he was articulating when Crist was running in the GOP primary. I don’t know who could convince him of this. The Bushes are telling him to reach for the middle. But there are no votes there. Crist has the middle. Meek/ Greene have the left. Rubio should have the right which is a plurality in a state like Florida in a three way race, even according to Gallup (Conservative: 39; Moderate: 37; Liberal 19). In a low turnout midterm election, in a year like this when all the energy is on the conservative side, Conservative turnout could approach 50% of the electorate in a three way race IF THEY ARE FIRED UP. Rubio is trying to run as if it were 2008 (a Dem year) and as if it were just a one on one race. It is not a smart strategy this year and in a three way race.
Mason-Dixon is the “gold standard” for polling outfits, especially in Southern races. These numbers are encouraging for Rubio and back up what Rasmussen is showing in this race.
Key findings:
- Rubio leads Crist 71-16% among Republicans
- Crist leads Rubio 44-31% among Independents
- With Meek as the nominee, Crist leads among Dems 45-36% including support from 19% of black voters
- With Greene as the Dem nominee, Crist is supported by 61% of Dems
- Meek leads Greene in the Dem primary 40-26%
These results show that Crist’s fate is tied to support from Democrats and that his chances take a huge hit if Meek is the Dem nominee. Meek will prevent Crist from making inroads with black voters at the very least and appears to get a larger share of support among his own party. Rubio is in the driver’s seat and will win this race by consolidating his support among Republicans and Hispanics and winning a large slice of Independents (30%+). Crist and Meek will effectively split the Dem vote. Rubio is in great position to capture voters angry at Obama and wanting to send someone to Washington who will not support his agenda, unlike Crist and Meek.
“Rubio is in great position to capture voters angry at Obama and wanting to send someone to Washington who will not support his agenda”
You are exactly right. The problem is that Rubio is not differentiating himself ENOUGH from Obama on issues of Offshore drilling and Immigration, specifically the Arizona law. He is trying to have it both ways (like Crist) and this is costing him. He should be WAY ahead now, but he is not. Crist is still 1.8% ahead of him on RCP, even with these MD results.
If this Mason-Dixon poll confirms Rubio in his wrongheaded “reach for the middle” strategy, it will turn out to have been bad news indeed. It will depress turnout for him in the Panhandle and along the I-4 corridor and he will lose. Hate to tell you but that is the truth.
Respectfully disagree. Nobody has been “way ahead” since Crist made this a three-way race back in April. The only two August polls, by Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen, both show Rubio ahead by 5 points (38-33%). Since Rasmussen doesn’t publish their internals, I can only base things off Mason-Dixon’s numbers and they showed Rubio with his highest level of Republican support yet (77-14%). Ultimately, this race is about Obama’s agenda and sending someone to Washington who will either support or oppose it. Rubio is the only avenue for voters who do not want Obama to get another vote in his favor in the Senate. No single issue, be it offshore drilling or immigration, will change that dynamic.
“Nobody has been “way ahead” since Crist made this a three-way race back in April.”
My point is Rubio could have been way ahead, but he needs to make this race ideological. It is not enough to say, “I am against Obama.” That takes him only so far. And if people look at his position on important issues like Immigration and Offshore drilling and find them similar to Crist’s and Obama’s then what is the incentive to vote for him. Rubio has never run state wide. He has to sell himself to voters who do not know him, including those in the Panhandle, where he has to win big.
“I can only base things off Mason-Dixon’s numbers and they showed Rubio with his highest level of Republican support yet (77-14%).”
I think it is a mistake to get caught up in these polls. Midterm elections are about intensity...getting your voters to the polls. The horserace numbers mean nothing if the voters are not motivated, especially in a three way race which is a classic “base” election. If Rubio does not give them some reason to vote, they won’t. Remember, Obama is not on the ballot.
“Rubio is the only avenue for voters who do not want Obama to get another vote in his favor in the Senate. No single issue, be it offshore drilling or immigration, will change that dynamic.”
I think that is a little simplistic. an ideological voter knows that. But remember, Crist didn’t support Obama in 2008. He was an early McCain supporter, and he can play that quite well when he in the panhandle.
“These results show that Crist’s fate is tied to support from Democrats and that his chances take a huge hit if Meek is the Dem nominee.”
Again, you are paying too much attention to the polls. Be careful what you wish for. If Rubio and Meek face off against Crist, Crist will be the only white candidate in the race. Demographically, Florida is about 73% white. Moreover Meek and Rubio are both from south Florida. Crist is from St. Pete, close to the critical I4 corridor and much closer to the crucial panhandle. I don’t think it is a good strategy to have two minority candidates opposing Crist, leaving Crist as the only white candidate. Voting is not always ideological ( or anti-someone not on the ballot). It is frequently tribal, especially if the “conservative” happens to be a minority member who de-emphasizes his conservatism. I think it would be better for Rubio if he faced Greene and Crist rather than Meek and Crist.
Then you’ve heard VERY little. Allen is doing very well against Klein, has beat klein in fundraising for two quarters now with the last FEC report showing he raised almost a million more than Klein.
The district was GOP held for 26 years until Klein barely managed to win riding Obama’s tailcoats in. His numbers have steadily dropped since the election and voting for health care, cap-n-trade did not help him one bit. On top of that, the districts demographics have altered some since 08 - it’s now 13% Jewish and almost 2:1 Republican registered voters going into the election.
Allen, while he has not given his supporters actual hard numbers, says his internal polling looks very good and he’s confident at this point.
Oh, and before you ask - this is from Allen’s mouth, personally, when I saw him last month for a fundraiser and a trip to the range where we (there were 6+ Freepers there as well) had a friendly competition to see who was the best shot.
The biggest and most overriding issue in this election will be the economy. That really isn’t debatable. Voter intensity is much higher on the Republican side heading into November. Again, that really isn’t debatable. I don’t buy the argument that large numbers of Republicans who are pissed about the Obama agenda and the economy and are motivated for this election will refuse to support Rubio because of immigration or offshore drilling. I think you make valid points about Rubio never running statewide previously and Crist being potentially the only white candidate. I still think Rubio can offset those challenges because of his fundraising ability and the fact that he’ll have the full support of the state and national party behind him.
I think Rubio does better against Greene and Crist. With Meek, Crist has pretty much a free pass to the Jewish vote as well as much better pickings in teh panhandle as the only white Candidate.
If it is Greene (who is Jewish), Crist stands to get skunked in the Jewish community. The Jewish vote in South Florida would not be able to resist voting for a Jewish Democrat nominee. Plus, as another white candidate, Greene would cut into Crist’s vote in the panhandle.
But who Rubio faces is really beside teh point and beyond his control. What is within his control is his own message, and he can’t count on Obama’s unpopularity by itself to defeat Crist, who is not a Democrat (yet) and who has won statewide several times.
The Liberal SP Times did one to make themselves feel better showing Crist ahead. They have been touting it all weekend.
I’ve been told that Crist support among Republicans will collapse once it becomes clear he’s the de facto RAT in the race.
As I’m sure you know a bunch of democrats just held a fundraiser for him.
I wish his name would be at the bottom of the ballot but it will probably be the 3rd name on the ballot; behind Rubio and the Dem nominee.
Good grief.. that this selfish, pandering, unprincipled, any-way-the-wind-blows scumbag Charlie Crist is still in this race at all makes it clear why so many refer to the state as “Flori-duh”.
I mean, come on... It’s ridiculous.
Operation Chaos. Cross over and vote Meek!
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Great idea! Is it an open Primary?
I’ve been praying for Meek to be the Dem nominee because it would certainly take votes from Crist.
If Greene is the nominee...all is not lost because there would be a lower turnout of Black voters ub November.
Rubio can still beat Greene & Crist by hammering the point that both of them will support Obama’s ultra left Socialist agenda!
Rubio has been repeating very effectively since I first heard him at my local GOP Club in June 2009 that he will be the voice of the people against the Obama agenda which is destroying their children & his own children’s future!
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