Mason-Dixon is the “gold standard” for polling outfits, especially in Southern races. These numbers are encouraging for Rubio and back up what Rasmussen is showing in this race.
Key findings:
- Rubio leads Crist 71-16% among Republicans
- Crist leads Rubio 44-31% among Independents
- With Meek as the nominee, Crist leads among Dems 45-36% including support from 19% of black voters
- With Greene as the Dem nominee, Crist is supported by 61% of Dems
- Meek leads Greene in the Dem primary 40-26%
These results show that Crist’s fate is tied to support from Democrats and that his chances take a huge hit if Meek is the Dem nominee. Meek will prevent Crist from making inroads with black voters at the very least and appears to get a larger share of support among his own party. Rubio is in the driver’s seat and will win this race by consolidating his support among Republicans and Hispanics and winning a large slice of Independents (30%+). Crist and Meek will effectively split the Dem vote. Rubio is in great position to capture voters angry at Obama and wanting to send someone to Washington who will not support his agenda, unlike Crist and Meek.
“Rubio is in great position to capture voters angry at Obama and wanting to send someone to Washington who will not support his agenda”
You are exactly right. The problem is that Rubio is not differentiating himself ENOUGH from Obama on issues of Offshore drilling and Immigration, specifically the Arizona law. He is trying to have it both ways (like Crist) and this is costing him. He should be WAY ahead now, but he is not. Crist is still 1.8% ahead of him on RCP, even with these MD results.
If this Mason-Dixon poll confirms Rubio in his wrongheaded “reach for the middle” strategy, it will turn out to have been bad news indeed. It will depress turnout for him in the Panhandle and along the I-4 corridor and he will lose. Hate to tell you but that is the truth.