“Nobody has been “way ahead” since Crist made this a three-way race back in April.”
My point is Rubio could have been way ahead, but he needs to make this race ideological. It is not enough to say, “I am against Obama.” That takes him only so far. And if people look at his position on important issues like Immigration and Offshore drilling and find them similar to Crist’s and Obama’s then what is the incentive to vote for him. Rubio has never run state wide. He has to sell himself to voters who do not know him, including those in the Panhandle, where he has to win big.
“I can only base things off Mason-Dixon’s numbers and they showed Rubio with his highest level of Republican support yet (77-14%).”
I think it is a mistake to get caught up in these polls. Midterm elections are about intensity...getting your voters to the polls. The horserace numbers mean nothing if the voters are not motivated, especially in a three way race which is a classic “base” election. If Rubio does not give them some reason to vote, they won’t. Remember, Obama is not on the ballot.
“Rubio is the only avenue for voters who do not want Obama to get another vote in his favor in the Senate. No single issue, be it offshore drilling or immigration, will change that dynamic.”
I think that is a little simplistic. an ideological voter knows that. But remember, Crist didn’t support Obama in 2008. He was an early McCain supporter, and he can play that quite well when he in the panhandle.
“These results show that Crist’s fate is tied to support from Democrats and that his chances take a huge hit if Meek is the Dem nominee.”
Again, you are paying too much attention to the polls. Be careful what you wish for. If Rubio and Meek face off against Crist, Crist will be the only white candidate in the race. Demographically, Florida is about 73% white. Moreover Meek and Rubio are both from south Florida. Crist is from St. Pete, close to the critical I4 corridor and much closer to the crucial panhandle. I don’t think it is a good strategy to have two minority candidates opposing Crist, leaving Crist as the only white candidate. Voting is not always ideological ( or anti-someone not on the ballot). It is frequently tribal, especially if the “conservative” happens to be a minority member who de-emphasizes his conservatism. I think it would be better for Rubio if he faced Greene and Crist rather than Meek and Crist.
The biggest and most overriding issue in this election will be the economy. That really isn’t debatable. Voter intensity is much higher on the Republican side heading into November. Again, that really isn’t debatable. I don’t buy the argument that large numbers of Republicans who are pissed about the Obama agenda and the economy and are motivated for this election will refuse to support Rubio because of immigration or offshore drilling. I think you make valid points about Rubio never running statewide previously and Crist being potentially the only white candidate. I still think Rubio can offset those challenges because of his fundraising ability and the fact that he’ll have the full support of the state and national party behind him.