Significant chance of recession next 2 years: SF Fed

Reuters on Yahoo ^ | 8/9/10 | Ann Saphir

[NormsRevenge]

CHICAGO (Reuters) – There is a "significant" chance the U.S. economy will slip back into recession in the next two years although a reversal is unlikely in the next few months, researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said on Monday.

The probability of another recession over the next 18 to 24 months is higher than that of expansion, researchers said in the latest issue of the regional Fed bank's Economic Letter.

Concern has risen in recent months that the United States might be headed for a 'double-dip' recession as measures of consumer spending and confidence have dropped and private company hiring has fallen short of expectations.

The soft economic data will be top of mind tomorrow when members of the Fed's monetary policy-setting committee meet. Recent comments from Fed officials signal strong disagreement over whether the Fed -- the U.S. central bank -- should move to offer further support to the economy than it already has.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I don’t care what the “textbook” definition of a recession is, we’re in one right now!

[DoughtyOne]

Slip back into a recession? LOL, wouldn’t that require us having actually crawled out of the last one first. I’ve not bought off on that one at this point.

[Da Coyote]

Ya think?

[Mr. K]

Bush economy was fine for 7.5 years.

Then the democraps talked it into the tank and it was DIRE PREDICAMENT when unemployment inched up to 7% and THE WORLD WAS ENDING if obammy wasn’t elected.

But Obambi gets it up to 9.5% and well, maybe we might be kinda sorta MAYBE, we might possibly be, maybe going into another teensy little recession thingy....

[equalitybeforethelaw]

Slip back? Wow, good to know the Feds are on top of things. Maybe a couple of hundred billions in free mortgages would spark a real estate rally?

[gundog]

Hey...Obama beat the business cycle!!

[Brilliant]

Its like saying there is a chance of rain when its raining.

[Jim Robinson]

NSS!

[dalebert]

IS ANYONE LISTENING TO CAVUTO TODAY..DUMB CONGRESSMAN IS WORRIED BOUT DEFICIT AFTER SPENDING BINGE BUT WANTS TO SPEND MORE TO HELP IT.

[Riodacat]

There is a "significant" chance the U.S. economy will slip back into recession in the next two years

No sh1t..

[Spok]

Even if Obama started doing everything right, small businessman are so distrustful that it’s highly unlikely he could turn this plunge around.

[metalcor]

The Bush economy was NOT fine. It was propped up by policies that created psuedo real estate wealth and unsupportable debt. Not to mention the rise in government employment and benefits on top of a system already arithmetically doomed to eventual failure. Obama didn’t create the mess, he only seeks to capitalize upon it to drive his fascist agenda. Bush didn’t create the mess, he only sought to capitalize upon the economic bubble for political support in his effort to not be blamed for another attack and to nationalize education.

[Siena Dreaming]

It was when Pelosi got into power in '06 that the MSM/Dem axis began their juggernaut of economic lies about Pres. Bush.

Iraq had turned because the surge worked. Instead of reporting the good news, the MSM pivoted to fill the vacuum with economic doom stories to go after Bush with a new method.

They are liars and thieves and Stupak proved that not one of them can be trusted.

[RobRoy]

>>There is a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will slip back into recession...<<

Back? Yeah, the “salad days” for the last few months have been SWEET!

These people really do think we are idiots. :-\

[RobRoy]

That is what a lot of us were saying before it “started”.

[updatedscreenname]

The problem with stimulus and low interest rates is that it is very difficult to detect the difference in the year over year numbers. Low rates allow corporations to create higher income when in reality they carry more debt but are paying less in interest. Stimulus dollars may have also created a blip in corporate incomes. However, these numbers are not sustainable and are really just the same as kite checks.

[RobRoy]

>>Even if Obama started doing everything right, small businessman are so distrustful that it’s highly unlikely he could turn this plunge around.<<

Frankly, it’s highly unlikely REAGAN could turn it around.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Us far worse off than ancient rome
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2563601/posts

[sickoflibs]

RE :”CHICAGO (Reuters) – There is a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will slip back into recession in the next two years although a reversal is unlikely in the next few months, researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said on Monday.”

Here is what I dont understand about this Keynesian stuff. How does borrowing trillions of dollars for wasteful government spending ‘jump-start’ the economy when all that money is going to be extracted from the ‘economy’ later based on government's plans Especially when you borrowed in many cases a 500K $ to million dollars per job created?

It doesn't matter how many big Mac's the NEW hired government employee buys those McDonald workers (private jobs stimulated) will never be able to repay the 1M in taxes required to create each government job, especially when most McD workers don't pay income taxes but still get SS and medicare some day.

[HardStarboard]

Bernacke has his orders - print more “walking around” money to give to the “underserved” special interest groups that Obama and the Democrats have been holding down so they will vote to be under the Democrat boot for another two years in 2010.

Green money for green energy, green cars and green real estate will also be printed.