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Was Today’s Poverty Determined in 1000 B.C.? (yes, partially)
New York Times ^ | August 2, 2010 | CATHERINE RAMPELL

Posted on 08/02/2010 3:00:32 PM PDT by reaganaut1

The recent finding that economic success in life is largely determined by what you learned in kindergarten has proven contentious (at least among our readers). So what if I told you that economic success was instead determined by what your ancestors did more than a millennium ago?

That is one implication of a provocative new study by Diego Comin, William Easterly (known for his skepticism of foreign aid programs) and Erick Gong.

The study gathered crude information on the state of technological development in various parts of the world in 1000 B.C.; around the birth of Jesus; and in A.D. 1500. It then compared these measures to per capita income today.

As it turns out, technology in A.D. 1500 is an extraordinarily reliable predictor of wealth today. Here’s a scatter plot showing the relationship between these two measures, in which each dot represents a different country:

As Mr. Easterly writes in an accompanying blog post, “78 percent of the difference in income today between sub-Saharan Africa and Western Europe is explained by technology differences that already existed in 1500 A.D. – even BEFORE the slave trade and colonialism.”

What’s more, these differences in technological development between regions had actually appeared as far back as 1000 B.C. (Side note: The big counterexample is China, which historically outshone other countries in its adoption of advanced technologies, but then did not go through the Industrial Revolution.)

There are multiple ways to explain persistence of technological differences over multiple millenniums.

...

In this earlier paper, Mr. Sachs and his co-authors argued that geography can help determine a country’s destiny, since location and climate have significant effects on the likelihood of disease burdens, transportation costs and agricultural productivity.

(Excerpt) Read more at economix.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: bellcurve; economichistory; godsgravesglyphs; history
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To: edcoil
You cannot buy your friends.

No, but you can rent them for a while; maybe even as long as needed to get to the point of not needing them any more.

Cf Arkancide; Obama's Bus, diminishing space under; Ketchup Boy's....

41 posted on 08/03/2010 6:16:05 PM PDT by ApplegateRanch (Made in America, by proud American citizens, in 1946.)
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To: wintertime

Add “Jedaeo” to Christianity and You have a or the major component of rapid progress.All of these characteristics came straight out of Hebrew monotheism. One major component is the early and continuous Hebrew strictures on sex.


42 posted on 08/03/2010 6:26:07 PM PDT by ThanhPhero (di tray hoi den La Vang)
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To: colorado tanker

Whoops!

Thanks colorado tanker!


43 posted on 08/03/2010 6:47:31 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: ThanhPhero

I absolutely agree. That is certainly an important factor.


44 posted on 08/03/2010 6:59:44 PM PDT by wintertime (Good ideas win! Why? Because people are not stupid.)
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To: norton
The outer shell of all insects is made from chitin. Humans do not produce a chitinase, enzyme to break down chitin, therefore the crunchy parts are indigestible. If you eat a lot of grasshoppers with long legs and long wings that are mainly made of chitin, they will tangle in your intestines etc. etc.

I was amazed to see chitin as an added ingredient in some diet pills. Yeah, you might feel full but you will not get any nutrition or fat from these parts.

On the other hand, most female insects and laden with eggs which are high in protein and all those whitish parts are fat.

Lobster and crab are seagoing insects with the same structural build. Would you eat the carapace?

45 posted on 08/03/2010 7:26:57 PM PDT by Battle Axe (Repent, for the coming of the Lord is nigh.)
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To: Battle Axe
Actually, I wouldn't eat any part of a lobster - but crab and shrimp are just fine thanks.
Craw fish are tolerable only because I like the music that goes with them.
Ants and grasshoppers were a dare, as were snails - but with them I didn't have to eat the wrapper.
46 posted on 08/03/2010 8:23:49 PM PDT by norton
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To: OldDeckHand
Perhaps Norway is a harsh climate physically, but it might also have abundant year-round sources of good protein that's high in Omega-3.

It's those yummy reindeer.

47 posted on 08/03/2010 8:39:40 PM PDT by Squawk 8888 (TSA and DHS are jobs programs for people who are not smart enough to flip burgers)
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To: OldDeckHand

It’s not just the protein. Vitamin B12 is essential for proper brain function; the first thing my doc did when I complained about insomnia and anxiety was check my B12 level. The best sources of B12 are meat and dairy- a vegan diet without supplements will lead to deficiency.


48 posted on 08/03/2010 8:45:15 PM PDT by Squawk 8888 (TSA and DHS are jobs programs for people who are not smart enough to flip burgers)
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To: wintertime; douginthearmy
Don't know about Japan, but the German economy was a house of cards even before the war started. The Wages of Destruction by Adam Tooze provides an excellent account of the Nazis' management of Germany's economy before and during the war.
49 posted on 08/03/2010 8:53:48 PM PDT by Squawk 8888 (TSA and DHS are jobs programs for people who are not smart enough to flip burgers)
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To: Squawk 8888
"It’s not just the protein."

You're right. The book I was talking about went into some detail about the other vitamins and minerals that were absent in the islander's diet - but I'm not a doctor or scientist, so much of it left my mind almost immediately after reading it.

50 posted on 08/03/2010 9:46:54 PM PDT by OldDeckHand
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To: YankeeReb; ThirdMate; All

Property rights probably would have trouble developing in tropical areas where slash and burn agriculture was the norm. That is clear land with burning, harvest crops a few years until rain and crops rob nutrients, then move on. This actually was the pattern in our own south, where cotton growing kept moving west, leaving the south east impoverished and lacking freedom.

In the great central plains of Russia and Asia, people migrated with the grass, and a number of countries still have nomadic herdsmen, which think in term of grazing rights, but not land holding.


51 posted on 08/03/2010 10:59:20 PM PDT by gleeaikin (question authority)
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To: SunkenCiv
Thanks for the ping. There are so many intelligent and plausible theories put forth here that I am sort of hesitant to say anything, but here goes.

In antiquity, the fundamentals of wealth would be first, lots of arable land with a water source, thus the riverine civilizations of antiquity. But the Greeks showed a counter-example to this. Name a river in Greece. Or the Minoan civilization. It seems both borrowed a lot of knowledge from Egypt, which had run its course as a great power.

Thus, land and food = leisure time for education and study, leading to knowledge, a permanent asset in exploiting nature. After knowledge reaches a critical point, the civs of the Nile, Tigris/Euphrates and Indus rivers lost their special advantage.

These older civs ran on slave labor. But when a civ uses knowledge as its primary tool, a lot of individual freedom is needed. Technology, of course, is the offspring of knowledge. Thus, the free Greeks defeated the hordes of Persia again and again, both because they were free, and wished to stay that way, and because their military technology was far advanced.

In order to keep freedom alive, it must be codified. The Romans and the Chinese were good at this, and it avoided a lot of conflict. Rome grew too big to defend it own borders, and the public spirit which enlivened it became degenerate hedonism. Mercenary Germanic troops rebeled and helped divide the empire, while huge migrations from central Asia finally took down both the Western and the Eastern Empire. That is what is starting to happen to us today.

So I have first, surplus food, leading to leisure, leading to knowledge, leading to technology. What brings otherwise successful civilizations down? Internal dissoluteness and external invasion. What could prevent this fate, for the US or any advanced tech civilization? A unifying, unyielding ethos and rational laws justly applied. The Founders provided us the basics for this, but warned that such a government was meant only for a moral people.

OK, there's my history in a nutshell.

52 posted on 08/04/2010 7:50:47 AM PDT by ARepublicanForAllReasons (Darn, lost my tagline... something about boarders, in-laws and bad language.)
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To: YankeeReb
Why develop anything if the government will only take it away and redistribute it.

Ask me again after the Bush tax cuts expire.

53 posted on 08/04/2010 8:27:16 AM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 556 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: FreeDeerHawk

Maybe it simply never occurred to the Papua New Guineans to rustle up some grub?


54 posted on 08/04/2010 8:33:32 AM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 556 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: DuncanWaring

...a møøse once bit mi sister...


55 posted on 08/04/2010 8:37:03 AM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 556 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: Squawk 8888
Don't know about Japan, but the German economy was a house of cards even before the war started.

National Socialism is robbing Peter to make Paul rich writ large.

When you have beggared all of your own Peters, you must invade the surrounding countries and rob their Peters to keep the party going.

People tend to forget that France was Germany's #1 trading partner in the 30's...

56 posted on 08/04/2010 8:44:06 AM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 557 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: reaganaut1

There are lots of things that make up a flowering civilization including climaate which implicates food availability.

However, if I were to put money on any one thing that gave Western civilization a booster shot, it would be the invention of movable and standardized type.

The expansion of information and general knowledge that came with the ever increasing ability of the average man to obtain cheaper and cheaper books gave the West the advantage of multiplying the numbers of educated people who COULD do things like invent steam engines.

Watt didn’t start with an idea of a steam engine from scratch (eg. Newton’s legendary apple falling from a tree) but he had a whole conrnucopia of knowledge of various kinds of mechanical devices and physics that he could put together into a successful invention.

In a 1000 years people will look back on the next big thing that moved civilization as the computer invented by IBM, Jobs, and Gates and the internet invented by Al Gore on an unseasonably cool day.


57 posted on 08/04/2010 9:54:22 AM PDT by wildbill (You're just jealous because the Voices talk only to me.)
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To: ARepublicanForAllReasons
Thanks for the ping. There are so many intelligent and plausible theories put forth here that I am sort of hesitant to say anything, but here goes.
I'm glad you did!
In antiquity, the fundamentals of wealth would be first, lots of arable land with a water source, thus the riverine civilizations of antiquity. But the Greeks showed a counter-example to this. Name a river in Greece. Or the Minoan civilization. It seems both borrowed a lot of knowledge from Egypt, which had run its course as a great power.
Greece is only about 30 percent arable land; the Eurotas river in the Peloponnese appears to have been the one naturally well-endowed ag area, and not surprisingly was powerful in classical times (Sparta enslaved nearly every Greek living in the Eurotas valley, and totally dominated (basically ruled) all other towns and villages there. Walling a settlement was not acceptable to the Spartans. Only after Thebes beat the Spartans' vaselined asses at Leuctra and freed the enslaved Greeks did city walls spring up all over the Peloponnese. Those walls kept those freed Greeks free.

In Homeric times Menelaus was the aggrieved king of Sparta, and if the legend is more or less on track, he and his kinsman Agamemnon king of Mycenae compelled the rest of the Greek city-states to join in the quest to reclaim Helen (or maybe it was just a plan for a cool weekend of plundering a town which wound up turning into ten years of bitter fighting; the Helen story doesn't sound so implausible by comparison). In any case, whatever connections may have existed between Mycenaean Greece and Egypt, the approach and technologies of each were homegrown.
Thus, land and food = leisure time for education and study, leading to knowledge, a permanent asset in exploiting nature. After knowledge reaches a critical point, the civs of the Nile, Tigris/Euphrates and Indus rivers lost their special advantage.
I agree. What little is known in their own words of Mycenaean Greece has been translated from a fairly small body of Linear B tablets. These contain details of local economic activity, which was apparently at least minutely inventoried by, and probably controlled by, the state. Besides olive oil and wheat, slaves and flax products were apparently typical. The careful management of production led to surplus and political organization -- and trade, and wealth for the lords of the manors. Local sovereignty was so important that it took an outside invader -- Alexander the Great (and then the Romans, etc) -- to unify them.

In Boeotia a river was rerouted behind a huge dyke, to carry it in a long loop around the base of some hills; the lake formerly fed by the river was drained out, freeing flat, fertile lakebed for agriculture. At some point the dyke was breached, possibly during an undocumented war at the end of the Homeric age. Alexander the Great had the lake drained again in the 4th c BC. In the 19th century similar work was done, and the resulting reclaimed land was in the area of 76 square miles, which shows the extent of this Bronze Age project. A former island with Mycenaean-era fortifications is now known as Gla (no ancient name is recorded), and was a substantial site. It may have been owned by one of the known city-states in the region, and the breaching of the dyke may have happened as a consequence of a war between two or all three of them. Or perhaps Gla was a power in its own right, an upstart of sorts, and the neighbors got jealous, angry, or wanted a piece of the action.
These older civs ran on slave labor. But when a civ uses knowledge as its primary tool, a lot of individual freedom is needed. Technology, of course, is the offspring of knowledge. Thus, the free Greeks defeated the hordes of Persia again and again, both because they were free, and wished to stay that way, and because their military technology was far advanced
The Persians moved an immense army made up of more than two dozen ethnic groups drawn from all over the empire across Anatolia, across a pontoon bridge at the straits, and down into a mountainous peninsula. At one point Xerxes had a canal dug through a long narrow landmass in order to bring his fleet along a more favorable course. There was no comparison -- the Persian Empire had a huge superiority in military logistics and strategy, and a very deep well of manpower and wealth. The "free Greeks" consisted of groups of occasional soldiers trained in a very simple but very effective (and small) set of battlefield tactics -- as well as the standing army of Sparta, which was supported by a massive slave population eventually held in bondage for about two centuries.

The one area where the Greeks had a technological advantage was in the ships, Themistocles' "wooden wall", which smashed the Persian fleet at Salamis. After that defeat, the Persian army could no longer be supported as an expeditionary force of that size, and yet it took another year for the Greeks to finally defeat the reduced Persian land army. IMO it's likely that Sparta was already in the pocket of the Persians prior to Marathon -- the Spartan army showed up after the battle was over, expecting to link up with its victorious Persian allies, and finding their various inferior fellow Greeks holding the field. Regardless, that embarrassment was atoned for at the militarily insignificant battle of Thermopylae, during the second Persian invasion. During the Pelopponesian War the Persians are known to have paid for the Spartans to build their fleet and hire away Athenian rowers, tipping the balance, and leading to the final defeat and humiliation of Athens.

Since the Greeks were in contact with relatives and others living under Persian rule, I might argue that they therefore had extensive knowledge of the terrible burdens imposed by despotic Persian rule. But after Themistocles was ostracized and forced to leave Athens (by the loonie bunch that later started a 30 year long war with Sparta, somewhere in the middle of which, during a years-long truce, they decided to try an expeditionary force of their own to Syracuse, in Sicily, and got their asses handed to them), the architect of the Persian defeat at Salamis relocated to the Persian Empire, was warmly received, and was appointed governor of a Greek city in Anatolia, where he grew old and died.
In order to keep freedom alive, it must be codified. The Romans and the Chinese were good at this, and it avoided a lot of conflict. Rome grew too big to defend it own borders, and the public spirit which enlivened it became degenerate hedonism. Mercenary Germanic troops rebeled and helped divide the empire, while huge migrations from central Asia finally took down both the Western and the Eastern Empire. That is what is starting to happen to us today.
Codified law is a necessary protection -- as "A Man For All Seasons" puts it, after you've knocked down all the laws to get at the Devil, and he turns round on you, where do you turn for help, all the laws being flat? The Romans had a massive set of books that were (like ours) made from both the legislation (including common law and local practice) and legal precedents from litigation results. There was an index, also from Roman times, that had made the massive body of law teachable, learnable, and usable. The index was the one part of the corpus of Roman law that survived into the Middle Ages, and was found (oddly enough) preserved in a library in Spain that had recently been liberated from the Moslems. That discovery revolutionized European law, and came along at a good time, because the bubonic plague destroyed the folklore-based settlement of disputes pretty much universal in feudal societies. The sage oldsters were simply not there due to sudden death, and the societies of Europe were having their props kicked out, because traditional ways (regardless of what they were locally) were shown to be unable to cope with or even anticipate such a disaster.

The Roman Empire tore itself apart because it didn't have any kind of unifying national identity, and those who did identify with the Roman civ wound up fighting each other for power. It never had any kind of system of orderly succession (or even any way out of office except death) until Diocletian came along, and his system didn't work perfectly either. He was so unsure of it himself that he built a self-reliant fortress which is still standing, and was occupied continuously from then to now. :') Rome never had anything like a public education system, didn't have a banking system, didn't have coherent taxation, didn't have much in the way of uniform currency until the 3rd century (and it wasn't "hard money"), didn't have a postal system, had a massive legacy of native and acquired theology (all of which was overlapping and/or in conflict), and like classical Greece, never banned slavery.

And it still stretched from the 5th c BC to the fall of Constantinople to the Turks in the 14th c AD. :')

Where Rome shined was in its export of an idealized engineered Roman way of life, which was adopted and/or adapted throughout the provinces, and was the main draw for the steady stream of "third world" migrants. It's one obvious parallel with what we face today.
So I have first, surplus food, leading to leisure, leading to knowledge, leading to technology. What brings otherwise successful civilizations down? Internal dissoluteness and external invasion. What could prevent this fate, for the US or any advanced tech civilization? A unifying, unyielding ethos and rational laws justly applied. The Founders provided us the basics for this, but warned that such a government was meant only for a moral people.
Wholeheartedly agree -- all civilization is based on agricultural surplus (and so far that has always included animal husbandry, i.e., meat); the centralized states of whatever size have been made possible (and really, made necessary) by food surplus. Standing armies to defend against external threats -- as well as internal ones -- were made possible by food surplus. Writing was necessitated by the needs of title to property, water rights, what we would call probate, and of course the collection of taxes (no joke, that). Once writing existed for one purpose, the recording of previously oral-only traditions made perfect sense, and helped homogenize culture, leading to a sense of nationality and national origin where it had never existed in quite that form.

We're lucky to have had a fairly small group of geniuses who were surrounded by people smart enough to let the geniuses show what they could do (and often enough, fight among themselves). They were educated (public education was a fact of life in the Colonies by the early 17th c, and that included instruction in ancient languages) and aware of the lessons of classical antiquity as well as European history. And they learned from those lessons, in the process creating a magnificent heritage, almost as out of thin air. Did I say lucky? Make that, we're extraordinarily lucky!
58 posted on 08/04/2010 6:03:23 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: ARepublicanForAllReasons

Uh, okay, so, I may have gone a bit long there...

“Could it be I’ve carried this thing too far?” — Bugs Bunny


59 posted on 08/04/2010 6:04:32 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: SunkenCiv
Uh, okay, so, I may have gone a bit long there...

Not at all.

I love productive give and take discussions. For example, I learn from you that Persia was actually technologically and militarily more advanced than I realized. Of course, the very long supply lines were a big problem. Salamis was the decisive battle, because Athens was occupied and burned.

When I say 'free Greeks', I mean that they were a rational people, not beholden to the autocratic whims of a God-Emperor as in Egypt, Persia and China. Even the monarchies hated a despot. Knowing this, it is a puzzle to me why Sparta made alliance with Persia. What did they expect the final result to be?

What little is known in their own words of Mycenaean Greece has been translated from a fairly small body of Linear B tablets. These contain details of local economic activity, which was apparently at least minutely inventoried by, and probably controlled by, the state.

I have heard that the earliest known examples of writing were inventory lists of goods and monetary accounts. Who would guess that the need for record keeping would lead to sonnets and novels? I think the ancients preferred to keep their mythologies in the oral tradition. This gave great status to those elders with good memories who were living tomes of their civilization's history. And it allowed for creative embellishment.

Hegel wrote that the ancient empires showed that "One could be free" (the Emperor), and the caste system states of Greece showed that "Some could be free." And finally, the emerging republics of his own time showed that "All could be free." This is about the only sensible thing I have read from Hegel.
The some free men of the Hellenic city-states started a trend in freedom of thought and action that continues to unfold. One man can make a monumental difference. One man can change history. The value of creative thought was proven. And the dangers of one man given too much power was also demonstrated. I am thinking of the egomaniac Alcibiades, whose treasonous and destructive acts forced him to take refuge in a Greek city in Asia. Unlike Themistocles, he didn't make it to old age, as you know.

Was Alcibiades one of the players behind the disastrous Syracuse expedition? My history time-line is not clear. One thing that amazes me about that venture is that the Athenians were supposed to have lost 50,000 men. Or so I have imbibed from some source. But Athens had only about 10,000 free citizens. Can you clear me up on this?

The Roman Empire tore itself apart because it didn't have any kind of unifying national identity, and those who did identify with the Roman civ wound up fighting each other for power. It never had any kind of system of orderly succession (or even any way out of office except death) until Diocletian came along, and his system didn't work perfectly either.

Of course the Roman system of government was not designed to accommodate Emperors. It did have a tight unifying national identity at its inception, but as the city-state grew into a vast empire, that national identity kept getting watered down. Citizenship was extended to more and more peoples, and after Julius Ceasar, that citizenship was hardly equal to what the original inhabitants of the seven hills enjoyed. Compare the right to vote today with what it meant in 1800 in our own country.

IMHO, Rome should never have messed with the Germania. But with Emperors instead of the Senate in control, status was based on conquest. The Emperors were named after the regions they conquered. This inability to live within limits was a major factor for the Empire. Somewhere in their history Rome's wars changed from defensive wars to offensive wars of sheer conquest. Thus runs the course of all over-reaching Empires.

Well, I surely have rattled on as much or more than you, SunkCiv. But this is OUR forum (by the good graces of JR), so who cares what the neighbors think. If you like, we can continue an exchange via FReep mail.

60 posted on 08/04/2010 11:18:18 PM PDT by ARepublicanForAllReasons (Darn, lost my tagline... something about boarders, in-laws and bad language.)
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