Posted on 07/21/2010 9:46:30 AM PDT by randita
VA-05: Democrat Perriello in Peril, One More House Seat Poised for Republican Take-Away:
In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia's 5th Congressional District today, 07/20/10, Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58% to 35%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
The seat is one of many Republicans hope to capture in November 2010. 39 "take-aways" are needed for Republicans to capture control of the US House of Representatives.
Perriello, who defeated 6-term Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008, today trails among most demographic groups. Among men, Hurt leads by 19 points. Among women, Hurt leads by 26. White voters back Hurt 2:1; black voters back Perriello 2:1. Twice as many Democrats cross over to vote Republican as Republicans who cross over to vote Democrat. Independents break Republican. Perriello runs most strongly among Democrats, African Americans, liberals, moderates, those who have unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party movement, among pro-choice voters, and among those who do not own guns ... each of which is today a minority among likely voters in VA's 5th district.
The composition of likely voters for this survey is 42% Republican, 27% Democratic. This composition reflects an energized Republican base and an enthusiasm gap for Democrats, evident in SurveyUSA polling from around the country. If the electorate is more Democratic than shown in SurveyUSA's model here, the Republican still wins, though his margin of victory is less. For example, if hypothetically there were an even number of Democrats and Republicans in the likely voter model, Republican challenger Hurt wins today by 11 points, not 23.
One more for the good guys ping.
Thanks for the report, randita.
BUMP.
Yeah; thanks for the good news.
Don’t count on the polls. Virgil Goode was up almost the exact same amount at about the same time, and lost to Perriello. Lets GOTV!!!
Sort of. Hurt is a centrist who has voted for tax increases in VA. He's not as bad a Senator Brown from MA but he certainly isn't going to rock the Federal boat in DC.
I appreciate the post, too. The Fifth District is next to mine and I despise Perriello with all my little pea-pickin’ heart. When the returns come in election night I’m going to get a six-pack and get sloppy drunk in celebration. I hardly ever drink but his defeat will be just perfect for tying one on.
I thought Goode wanted his seat back.
“Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58% to 35%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.”
Holy cow! That’s huge against an incumbent. I’d be shocked if Hurt’s margin held, but this race looks more likely than not to flip.
A new SurveyUSA poll out today shows Tom Perriello trailing Republican Robert Hurt by 23 points. In February, prior to the health care vote, PPP polling showed Perriello essentially tied with Hurt.
Keep the good news coming....
Read my Tagline...
2010 is going to be a 100 seat TSUNAMI !!
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