Posted on 07/13/2010 6:20:27 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia
President Obama is "guaranteed" to win re-election in 2012, according to Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C. Lichtman's formula predicts the outcome of the popular vote without considering candidate opinion polls, campaign strategies or political events.
Lichtman's system is based on 13 political conditions that he calls "keys." The keys favor the incumbent president's party: When five or fewer of them are false, the incumbent party wins the presidency. If six or more are false, the opposition party wins. In 2007, Lichmann predicted that any Democratic candidate -- Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama -- would have beaten John McCain.
Only four of the 13 keys (outlined here) are currently in the "false" column for President Obama. Counting against him are the facts that he has not achieved a major foreign policy victory, that his party will lose seats in the House of Representatives, and that per-capita economic growth does not exceed the two previous presidential terms. "True" keys include: there is no serious contest for the Democratic Party nomination, Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure, and his administration has achieved "major changes in national policy."
Lichtman, who described the keys theory in his 2008 book, "Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President," questions the widespread perception that presidential campaigns are "horse races" influenced by minor events and media coverage.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...
The anti-Obama sentiment is raging.
I know of too many people who are seething mad. Hell, I almost heard a preacher cuss yesterday when Obama was brought up.
The feel-good white guilt that put him in office is gone.
Obama will fulfill Bill Clinton's wish and become President of the UN.
Guaranteed?
They are going to give all the prisoners voting rights in every city, state and federal pen?
Minnesota rules!
Really? Allan Lichtman, the 2006 Senate candidate for New York? That Allan Lichtman?
Key factor is: Candidate with nicest hair wins
They really have no other candidate. It wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t go up on treason charges before the year is up. I believe the moratorium is treason.
• KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
• KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
• KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)
• KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
• KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)
• KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
• KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)
• KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)
• KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)
Uh, 5 is already false, and 2, 8, 9 & 10 could easily flip to false by 2012. Only 6 falses are needed, and Obama already has 4 by Lichtman’s count, 5 by mine.
Should read :
“Allan Lichtman, a left-wing liberal professor at American University in Washington, D.C.”.
Oh, sure. In spite of the fact that Republicans are winning more and more State elections, zerobozo’s plunging approval ratings even among democrats, Gibb’s remark that Conservatives may take the House in November, the mess in the Gulf of Mexico, no jobs, attacking Arizona’s immigration policy (which most Americans approve of), etc.,etc.
I think I could wear out my keyboard listing all of the reasons why he’s going to lose.
This is just more desperate, left-wing propaganda.
Outlining the Keys:
• KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)
• KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
• KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
• KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)
• KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
• KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)
• KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
• KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)
• KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)
• KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)
Bold items are clearly questionable in application to the 0bama administration.
Easy to do “crazy think” when you’re surrounded by like minded only... American University - is there even ONE conservative professor in liberal arts?
Just remember to do like they do in Chicago...vote early and vote often.
“No Foreign Policy Failure”. His policy with Iran is a miserable failure. His policy with North Korea is a miserable failure. His policy with Russia has resulted in a spy ring. His policy with North Korea resulted in a ship being sunk. And he runs away from this stuff like a scared little schoolgirl running from a spider. He is our greatest embarrassment
Didn’t work for Edwards, but it might for Palin.
And I can give you one reason why he’ll win -
vote fraud.
Your noted incumbent success does generally bode well for Zero but if we look at the factors behind the failure of both Carter and Bush I, there seem to be some parallels to the current situation. Probably the biggest one will be the tax issue that sunk Daddy Bush will have its match as the Sonny Bush tax cuts expire in the face of the “no raise in taxes if under $250k” campaign promise. Combine that with anger over Obamacare, voters are going to be active. There is also significant opportunity for a foreign policy SNAFU that would exceed Carter’s Iran hostage crisis.
I wasn’t around for Taft — may do a little research on that. Good post and you made an excellent point about incumbency in American politics.
“Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure”
ALL of his foreign policy is a failure.
"Surefire Guide" -- what an EGO!
Well, that did seem to work for Franken, but there would have to be massive amounts of it for the presidential election in 2012. Maybe with the votes from illegals he could pull it off though.
God help us all if he does win.
If that happens, I will seriously look to another country to retire, and leave the country I’ve loved for so long.
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