Posted on 07/12/2010 6:49:14 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
Conventional wisdome suggests Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is the most vulnerable GOPer in Congress, seeking re-election in a heavily African-American district in which any scandal-free Dem should easily top half the vote. But conventional wisdom has been wrong before, and a new poll for Cao's campaign hopes to prove it wrong again.
Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy. Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters.
That African American vote will play a decisive factor in the New Orleans-based district. African Americans make up 61% of the voter registration rolls, but recent turnout statistics show African Americans are seriously underrepresented at the polls.
Kennedy writes in a memo to Cao's campaign that he believes turnout among black voters will top out at 57%. Accordingly, 57% of the sample was African American, while 39% was white. Cao's lead comes even as both candidates were identified by party -- meaning voters said they would vote for Cao even though they knew he was a GOPer.
"Strong evidence exists that a fundamental change has occurred among African-Americans in the New Orleans area, where performance overrides ethnic voting," Kennedy said. "And since Joseph Cao is also a minority candidate who has an outstanding record of personal and political accomplishments, African-Americans identify with him and are willing to give much higher support to a non-African-American than in previous elections."
Cao is well-known throughout his district -- surprisingly so, for a freshman. Fully 54% of district residents rate him favorably, while just 9% say they see him unfavorably. Richmond is much less well-known, clocking in at 23% favorable and 12% unfavorable. Dems believe they will win over a much larger vote share as Richmond's name becomes better known.
The poll also tested Cao against state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson (D), who last week said she wouldn't run and who trailed Cao by a 49%-30% margin. The poll did not test state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), who has qualified to run for the seat but who has much less cash on hand than Richmond and is seen as an underdog in the Dem primary.
Dems say Carter Peterson's decision not to file will give them a leg up in the long run. Running alongside Richmond and LaFonta, little-known businessman Gary Johnson (D) and ex-Congressional aide Eugene Green (D) are unlikely to take a significant percentage of the vote, meaning the winner of the Aug. 28 primary will likely get more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff.
Dems also caught a break when several African Americans considering an independent bid against Cao said they would not file, limiting the potential for a split Dem base. Cao got a challenger at the last minute in salesman Norman Billiot (R), though on Monday Billiot withdrew his name, giving Cao a clean shot at the GOP nomination.
Opposition strategists pointed to the very makeup of Cao's district, which gave Pres. Obama 75% of the vote in '08. No other member of Congress holds a district that favored the other party's WH nominee by such a large margin.
"Rep. Cao has done anything he needed to in order to stay in good graces with his national Republican benefactors and try to block President Obama's agenda in a district where voters strongly support it," said DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson. "The moment Cao voted against historic health insurance reform was the moment we knew our Democratic nominee will be successful in November."
The poll was conducted by Kennedy's firm, Market Research Insight. It surveyed 400 voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%.
Alas, even a 100-seat pickup would be likelier than fluke 2008 winner Republican Congressman Joseph Cao leading a black state representative by 39%-36% among black voters in his hyper-Democrat black-majority New Orleans district.
Since when does ‘scandal free’ matter there ?
My comment #1 says it all: this poll sounds far too good to be true. But if there’s even a kernel of truth to it, November will be even better than we all have been hoping for.
Having lived down there 4 months late last year, I’m no longer sure that is a Black majority district, or at least that the margin is that high. Sure, they are still on the rolls. However, I don’t believe they are there any longer.
Having lived down there 4 months late last year, I’m no longer sure that is a Black majority district, or at least that the margin is that high. Sure, they are still on the rolls. However, I don’t believe they are there any longer.
Even many blacks in Louisiana are likely getting sick of the thuggishness of the WH.
look up his voting record- health care bill and who knows what else.
He votes like your average Black Congressional Caucus member. Why change.
He voted for Obamacare the first time (casting his vote only after the Democrats had a majority), but then voted against Obamacare the second time around (claiming that he couldn’t support the bill without the anti-abortion language). I doubt that the moonbats will be supporting Cao.
As long as he keeps voting for a GOP speaker, he can do what he wants.
I’m sorry, but I cannot distinguish this RINO’s voting record from that of any other CommieCrate. Why should I care what happens to him?
He is dead to me, as far as being Republican in any meaningful sense of the concept.
You got that right. He has already proved what a traitor he is to America by voting with the libs.
“Since when does ‘scandal free’ matter there ?”
Actually, it does seem to matter to enough of these black voters - who helped vote out William Jefferson, Democrat-Louisiana. There is NO WAY that Cao would have ever had a chance had it not been for these black voters.
They are a reachable bunch, in my opinion. They know full-well how badly they’ve been SCREWED by the DEMOCRATS. It will be much harder (in fact, impossible) to reach gays and young married couples who could care less about ANYTHING beyond their next summer holiday.
Don’t try to put the boodgie woodgie on us. Getting rid of RINOS is part of what we are doing.
“Don’t try to put the boodgie woodgie on us. Getting rid of RINOS is part of what we are doing.”
LOL. GROW UP!!! If we can hold a district carved out to be represented by a BLACK DEMOCRAT with a non-black pro-life person, then what the HELL is wrong with that.
I’d love a Conservative Republican DICTATORSHIP as much as you, but getting Cao to represent a black district in New Orleans is pretty damn good to me.
Incumbency does have its advantages, fortunately AND unfortunately, depending upon each individual circumstance.
Other than has nearly unforgivable vote on ObamaCare, I can give Cao an occasional pass for trying to survive in a district of Obamabots, much like with Scott Brown. I hope he wins re-election.
This could make for a very interesting November...
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