Time for the butterfly to finish the work.
P!
Good post.
I’d reduced the chances of a real war to 1% or less, but now I can see that NK might be crazy enough to initiate MORE stuff and pretty soon if he doesn’t get paid.
Do you think it’s impossible that China won’t just step in, and seeing the option as cheaper, simply pay L’il Kim off...? Or will this be the USA..?
I understand that China has a whole cadre of defected NK’ans all trained up to be China’s new government there, in case Kim has to go —is that your understanding also, or is this just RumInt..?
Does he simply wish to be bought off, or is this an elaborate funeral pyre, sort of like the Egyptian pyramids, where all the unlucky workers and concubines are also entombed with the Pharoah..?
China is a bicameral government and always has been. Civilian doesn’t hold the ultimate decision making power. It’s shared by civilian and army. The civilians didn’t come across the Yalu river 1 million men strong back during the rout of America back to the 38th parallel. The Chinese military did that. The Chinese military wants the weak water Obama administration out of their sphere of influence. North Korea is their mad dog. We will back down because Obama and his crew lack the balls to stand up for South Korea.
I’m thinking that the South Koreans should initiate one-on-one discussions with with Chicoms regarding how to deal with the starving peasants between them. SK can not rely on the US.
Thanks for posting from the Economist. I wish I could afford to still take it, it was like getting the world at your door every week. Much, much better than any American pub.
Nevertheless I was struck by this bit “South Korea is loth to contemplate a breakdown in the north because of the cost of unification, given a disparity in living standards that is far greater than newly united Germany had to cope with.”
Way to consign those North Koreans to utter destitution for now and forever Economist dudes.
Tiger -
Can you add me to a ping list? I have a friend who’s daughter is in Korea and asked to to post the latest to her. Thanks!
My guess is that Kim miscalculated. He is an extreme addictive/dysfunctional personality, as have been other leaders of his ilk—notably Hitler. One hallmark of addiction/dysfunction is that the deeper a person slides into it the more impaired their judgment becomes. Thankfully, toward the end Hitler was making catastrophically bad judgment calls and calculations. I think Kim has done similarly.
Ping.
At some point in history, the Chinese will drop the veil of cooperation with the United States because they will no longer need the United States. They will have mined as much technology and information from our businesses and government as possible, and our consumer class will have become impoverished to the point that doing business with it no longer represents any sort of a geopolitical deterrent.
When that point in history is is anyone’s guess.
Bump!
Dear Leader has not been seen in over a week. Is there anything to lead you to believe he has been given a sleeping potion or needle, possibly of the permanent type?
The world must shame China. They are the sole prop for the wretched Kim regime, and the deaths of millions of Koreans by man-made starvation and abuse is the responsibility of China.
All because they seek a weak, pliant, puppet-state on their border for perceived national security.
China has sown many evil seeds in Korea - and they will not have security because of this.
China has always held North Korea on a leash, and does so today. If the Norkies are doing this, it is because China is ALLOWING it. Period. It somehow serves THEIR greater purposes, it fulfills their greater designs. For that reason neither China NOR the UN Security Council, on which China also sits and has a permanent Veto privilege, will be of any assistance, and to the contrary will be a major hindrance. When we realize that truth, THEN we might have a chance of actually dealing successfully and finally with the North Korean (and perhaps the China) problem. Until then, forget it.
......how much greater will be the danger of miscommunication in the event of something hitherto unthinkable happening.....
Would you trust anything coming from the mouth or pen of Hillary Clinton? Obama has no international credibility.
I think they miscalculated when they launched the torpedo that blew apart the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf.
P!