[gaijin]

Good post.

I’d reduced the chances of a real war to 1% or less, but now I can see that NK might be crazy enough to initiate MORE stuff and pretty soon if he doesn’t get paid.

Do you think it’s impossible that China won’t just step in, and seeing the option as cheaper, simply pay L’il Kim off...? Or will this be the USA..?

I understand that China has a whole cadre of defected NK’ans all trained up to be China’s new government there, in case Kim has to go —is that your understanding also, or is this just RumInt..?

Does he simply wish to be bought off, or is this an elaborate funeral pyre, sort of like the Egyptian pyramids, where all the unlucky workers and concubines are also entombed with the Pharoah..?

[TigerLikesRooster]

I think they wait for Kim to die and step in. Then create pro-Chinese regime making use of all those NK defectors they sheltered. Kim Jong-nam could be their figurehead. However, the chance of this operation is also uncertain. The situation after his death would be highly volatile and unpredictable.

China is not good at operating in such an environment. They can be tough when all parameters are clearly defined, but not in this kind of situation. Their MO faced with situation like this is to establish good beachhead and gradually turn things into their control, using 'its massive size.'

Besides, decisive and risky action would clearly kill Chinese economy which has been propped up by its own property bubble. Bubble is precarious and it does not take much to pop it.

[nomad]

I`d tell China that if they can`t reign in their trained monkey, then all those T-Bills and other debt instruments they hold are declared null and void. You arm and support that foaming little monkey, you can bare the full responsibility for it`s actions, so go pound sand.