Posted on 05/28/2010 6:24:32 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
N. Korea: The nightmare scenario (time to prepare for the catastrophic end)
The nightmare scenario
May 27th 2010
From The Economist print edition
Time for North Korea’s friends and foes to start preparing for the worst
DID the warped Machiavellians of Pyongyang miscalculate when they launched the torpedo that blew apart a South Korean warship two months ago? Proof of one of the worst breaches of the armistice that ended the Korean war 57 years ago has roiled waters far beyond the Korean peninsula. Escalating tensions have even helped rattle global financial markets. Thus far, North Korea’s reckless belligerence has mostly been met with an impressive show of resolve by South Korea, Japan and America. But North Korea could yet raise the stakes again. Time for all of North Korea’s neighbours to start thinking of how they might together deal with some of the unthinkables they have hitherto tried hard to ignore (see article).
/snip
What if…
If China cannot have a grown-up discussion with America about something as clear-cut as the attack on the Cheonan, how much greater will be the danger of miscommunication in the event of something hitherto unthinkable happening: an outbreak of war, say, a nuclear incident, or the collapse of the regime. Anything that sparked fears of “loose nukes” or a refugee crisis, with American and Chinese troops aiming nervously at each other across North Korean territory, could quickly make the Korean peninsula the most dangerous place on earth. China ignores such risks at its peril.
/snip
But the Dear Leader is not immortal, and when he dies the succession is likely to be fraught with danger. At that point the neighbouring powers will desperately need to talk to each other through mechanisms that currently barely exist.
(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...
Time for the butterfly to finish the work.
P!
Good post.
I’d reduced the chances of a real war to 1% or less, but now I can see that NK might be crazy enough to initiate MORE stuff and pretty soon if he doesn’t get paid.
Do you think it’s impossible that China won’t just step in, and seeing the option as cheaper, simply pay L’il Kim off...? Or will this be the USA..?
I understand that China has a whole cadre of defected NK’ans all trained up to be China’s new government there, in case Kim has to go —is that your understanding also, or is this just RumInt..?
Does he simply wish to be bought off, or is this an elaborate funeral pyre, sort of like the Egyptian pyramids, where all the unlucky workers and concubines are also entombed with the Pharoah..?
China is not good at operating in such an environment. They can be tough when all parameters are clearly defined, but not in this kind of situation. Their MO faced with situation like this is to establish good beachhead and gradually turn things into their control, using 'its massive size.'
Besides, decisive and risky action would clearly kill Chinese economy which has been propped up by its own property bubble. Bubble is precarious and it does not take much to pop it.
China is a bicameral government and always has been. Civilian doesn’t hold the ultimate decision making power. It’s shared by civilian and army. The civilians didn’t come across the Yalu river 1 million men strong back during the rout of America back to the 38th parallel. The Chinese military did that. The Chinese military wants the weak water Obama administration out of their sphere of influence. North Korea is their mad dog. We will back down because Obama and his crew lack the balls to stand up for South Korea.
I can agree that PLA has the ultimate veto power and they are the one which is shaping China’s policy on NK.
I like your knowledge.
Your neurons intrigue and confuse me.
I’m a simple caveman.
I’m thinking that the South Koreans should initiate one-on-one discussions with with Chicoms regarding how to deal with the starving peasants between them. SK can not rely on the US.
Agree.....:o)
Thanks for posting from the Economist. I wish I could afford to still take it, it was like getting the world at your door every week. Much, much better than any American pub.
Nevertheless I was struck by this bit “South Korea is loth to contemplate a breakdown in the north because of the cost of unification, given a disparity in living standards that is far greater than newly united Germany had to cope with.”
Way to consign those North Koreans to utter destitution for now and forever Economist dudes.
LOL!
I’d buy you a beer any day Laz.
No beer, FRiend. But any fine nonalcoholic beverage, any time!
Root beer then!
Tiger -
Can you add me to a ping list? I have a friend who’s daughter is in Korea and asked to to post the latest to her. Thanks!
My guess is that Kim miscalculated. He is an extreme addictive/dysfunctional personality, as have been other leaders of his ilk—notably Hitler. One hallmark of addiction/dysfunction is that the deeper a person slides into it the more impaired their judgment becomes. Thankfully, toward the end Hitler was making catastrophically bad judgment calls and calculations. I think Kim has done similarly.
Huah. :)
Spot-on analysis.
I said this the other day, the difference is that Hitler, at the end, was moving non-existent army divisions where Kim has real ones.
It begs the question, what would Hitler have done if he had just a couple crude nuclear devices?
A Chinese analyst recently stated that we must realize that North Korea is not a “rational actor.”
Yikes! Does Kim really/already have crude nuclear devices? I knew he was working his scientists’ butts off to get them. Has he already succeeded???
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