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N. Korea: The nightmare scenario (time to prepare for the hair-raising end game)
Economist ^ | 05/27/10

Posted on 05/28/2010 6:24:32 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster

N. Korea: The nightmare scenario (time to prepare for the catastrophic end)

The nightmare scenario

May 27th 2010

From The Economist print edition

Time for North Korea’s friends and foes to start preparing for the worst

DID the warped Machiavellians of Pyongyang miscalculate when they launched the torpedo that blew apart a South Korean warship two months ago? Proof of one of the worst breaches of the armistice that ended the Korean war 57 years ago has roiled waters far beyond the Korean peninsula. Escalating tensions have even helped rattle global financial markets. Thus far, North Korea’s reckless belligerence has mostly been met with an impressive show of resolve by South Korea, Japan and America. But North Korea could yet raise the stakes again. Time for all of North Korea’s neighbours to start thinking of how they might together deal with some of the unthinkables they have hitherto tried hard to ignore (see article).

/snip

What if…

If China cannot have a grown-up discussion with America about something as clear-cut as the attack on the Cheonan, how much greater will be the danger of miscommunication in the event of something hitherto unthinkable happening: an outbreak of war, say, a nuclear incident, or the collapse of the regime. Anything that sparked fears of “loose nukes” or a refugee crisis, with American and Chinese troops aiming nervously at each other across North Korean territory, could quickly make the Korean peninsula the most dangerous place on earth. China ignores such risks at its peril.

/snip

But the Dear Leader is not immortal, and when he dies the succession is likely to be fraught with danger. At that point the neighbouring powers will desperately need to talk to each other through mechanisms that currently barely exist.

(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: nkorea; walmartsuppliers; worstcase
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Now is the time for a N. Korean butterfly effect, a seemingly routine problem morphed into regime-finishing danger. NK has already had its blackswan: getting caught red-handed in attacking Cheonan with its torpedo.

Time for the butterfly to finish the work.

1 posted on 05/28/2010 6:24:32 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; AmericanInTokyo; Steel Wolf; nuconvert; MizSterious; nw_arizona_granny; ...

P!


2 posted on 05/28/2010 6:24:55 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Good post.

I’d reduced the chances of a real war to 1% or less, but now I can see that NK might be crazy enough to initiate MORE stuff and pretty soon if he doesn’t get paid.

Do you think it’s impossible that China won’t just step in, and seeing the option as cheaper, simply pay L’il Kim off...? Or will this be the USA..?

I understand that China has a whole cadre of defected NK’ans all trained up to be China’s new government there, in case Kim has to go —is that your understanding also, or is this just RumInt..?

Does he simply wish to be bought off, or is this an elaborate funeral pyre, sort of like the Egyptian pyramids, where all the unlucky workers and concubines are also entombed with the Pharoah..?


3 posted on 05/28/2010 6:32:18 PM PDT by gaijin
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To: gaijin
I think they wait for Kim to die and step in. Then create pro-Chinese regime making use of all those NK defectors they sheltered. Kim Jong-nam could be their figurehead. However, the chance of this operation is also uncertain. The situation after his death would be highly volatile and unpredictable.

China is not good at operating in such an environment. They can be tough when all parameters are clearly defined, but not in this kind of situation. Their MO faced with situation like this is to establish good beachhead and gradually turn things into their control, using 'its massive size.'

Besides, decisive and risky action would clearly kill Chinese economy which has been propped up by its own property bubble. Bubble is precarious and it does not take much to pop it.

4 posted on 05/28/2010 6:41:54 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

China is a bicameral government and always has been. Civilian doesn’t hold the ultimate decision making power. It’s shared by civilian and army. The civilians didn’t come across the Yalu river 1 million men strong back during the rout of America back to the 38th parallel. The Chinese military did that. The Chinese military wants the weak water Obama administration out of their sphere of influence. North Korea is their mad dog. We will back down because Obama and his crew lack the balls to stand up for South Korea.


5 posted on 05/28/2010 6:42:06 PM PDT by kinghorse
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To: kinghorse
We will only back down IF WalMart decides it is in their best interest to do so.
6 posted on 05/28/2010 6:44:10 PM PDT by investigateworld (Abortion Stops A Beating Heart)
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To: gaijin
I`d tell China that if they can`t reign in their trained monkey, then all those T-Bills and other debt instruments they hold are declared null and void. You arm and support that foaming little monkey, you can bare the full responsibility for it`s actions, so go pound sand.
7 posted on 05/28/2010 6:45:21 PM PDT by nomad
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To: kinghorse

I can agree that PLA has the ultimate veto power and they are the one which is shaping China’s policy on NK.


8 posted on 05/28/2010 6:46:26 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I like your knowledge.

Your neurons intrigue and confuse me.

I’m a simple caveman.


9 posted on 05/28/2010 6:51:42 PM PDT by Lazamataz ("We beat the Soviet Union. Then we became them." -- Lazamataz, 2005)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I’m thinking that the South Koreans should initiate one-on-one discussions with with Chicoms regarding how to deal with the starving peasants between them. SK can not rely on the US.


10 posted on 05/28/2010 6:58:13 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: investigateworld

Agree.....:o)


11 posted on 05/28/2010 7:02:02 PM PDT by Squantos (Be polite. Be professional. But have a plan to kill everyone you meet)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Thanks for posting from the Economist. I wish I could afford to still take it, it was like getting the world at your door every week. Much, much better than any American pub.

Nevertheless I was struck by this bit “South Korea is loth to contemplate a breakdown in the north because of the cost of unification, given a disparity in living standards that is far greater than newly united Germany had to cope with.”

Way to consign those North Koreans to utter destitution for now and forever Economist dudes.


12 posted on 05/28/2010 7:02:55 PM PDT by jocon307 (It's the spending, stupid.)
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To: Lazamataz

LOL!

I’d buy you a beer any day Laz.


13 posted on 05/28/2010 7:03:02 PM PDT by TSgt (We will always be prepared, so we may always be free. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: TSgt

No beer, FRiend. But any fine nonalcoholic beverage, any time!


14 posted on 05/28/2010 7:05:21 PM PDT by Lazamataz ("We beat the Soviet Union. Then we became them." -- Lazamataz, 2005)
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To: Lazamataz

Root beer then!


15 posted on 05/28/2010 7:08:34 PM PDT by TSgt (We will always be prepared, so we may always be free. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Tiger -

Can you add me to a ping list? I have a friend who’s daughter is in Korea and asked to to post the latest to her. Thanks!


16 posted on 05/28/2010 7:09:31 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear (I don't have a 'Cousin Pookie'.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

My guess is that Kim miscalculated. He is an extreme addictive/dysfunctional personality, as have been other leaders of his ilk—notably Hitler. One hallmark of addiction/dysfunction is that the deeper a person slides into it the more impaired their judgment becomes. Thankfully, toward the end Hitler was making catastrophically bad judgment calls and calculations. I think Kim has done similarly.


17 posted on 05/28/2010 7:09:36 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: TSgt

Huah. :)


18 posted on 05/28/2010 7:09:38 PM PDT by Lazamataz ("We beat the Soviet Union. Then we became them." -- Lazamataz, 2005)
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To: Fantasywriter

Spot-on analysis.

I said this the other day, the difference is that Hitler, at the end, was moving non-existent army divisions where Kim has real ones.

It begs the question, what would Hitler have done if he had just a couple crude nuclear devices?

A Chinese analyst recently stated that we must realize that North Korea is not a “rational actor.”


19 posted on 05/28/2010 7:12:15 PM PDT by TSgt (We will always be prepared, so we may always be free. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: TSgt

Yikes! Does Kim really/already have crude nuclear devices? I knew he was working his scientists’ butts off to get them. Has he already succeeded???


20 posted on 05/28/2010 7:14:11 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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