Posted on 05/28/2010 6:24:32 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Time for the butterfly to finish the work.
P!
Good post.
I’d reduced the chances of a real war to 1% or less, but now I can see that NK might be crazy enough to initiate MORE stuff and pretty soon if he doesn’t get paid.
Do you think it’s impossible that China won’t just step in, and seeing the option as cheaper, simply pay L’il Kim off...? Or will this be the USA..?
I understand that China has a whole cadre of defected NK’ans all trained up to be China’s new government there, in case Kim has to go —is that your understanding also, or is this just RumInt..?
Does he simply wish to be bought off, or is this an elaborate funeral pyre, sort of like the Egyptian pyramids, where all the unlucky workers and concubines are also entombed with the Pharoah..?
China is not good at operating in such an environment. They can be tough when all parameters are clearly defined, but not in this kind of situation. Their MO faced with situation like this is to establish good beachhead and gradually turn things into their control, using 'its massive size.'
Besides, decisive and risky action would clearly kill Chinese economy which has been propped up by its own property bubble. Bubble is precarious and it does not take much to pop it.
China is a bicameral government and always has been. Civilian doesn’t hold the ultimate decision making power. It’s shared by civilian and army. The civilians didn’t come across the Yalu river 1 million men strong back during the rout of America back to the 38th parallel. The Chinese military did that. The Chinese military wants the weak water Obama administration out of their sphere of influence. North Korea is their mad dog. We will back down because Obama and his crew lack the balls to stand up for South Korea.
I can agree that PLA has the ultimate veto power and they are the one which is shaping China’s policy on NK.
I like your knowledge.
Your neurons intrigue and confuse me.
I’m a simple caveman.
I’m thinking that the South Koreans should initiate one-on-one discussions with with Chicoms regarding how to deal with the starving peasants between them. SK can not rely on the US.
Agree.....:o)
Thanks for posting from the Economist. I wish I could afford to still take it, it was like getting the world at your door every week. Much, much better than any American pub.
Nevertheless I was struck by this bit “South Korea is loth to contemplate a breakdown in the north because of the cost of unification, given a disparity in living standards that is far greater than newly united Germany had to cope with.”
Way to consign those North Koreans to utter destitution for now and forever Economist dudes.
LOL!
I’d buy you a beer any day Laz.
No beer, FRiend. But any fine nonalcoholic beverage, any time!
Root beer then!
Tiger -
Can you add me to a ping list? I have a friend who’s daughter is in Korea and asked to to post the latest to her. Thanks!
My guess is that Kim miscalculated. He is an extreme addictive/dysfunctional personality, as have been other leaders of his ilk—notably Hitler. One hallmark of addiction/dysfunction is that the deeper a person slides into it the more impaired their judgment becomes. Thankfully, toward the end Hitler was making catastrophically bad judgment calls and calculations. I think Kim has done similarly.
Huah. :)
Spot-on analysis.
I said this the other day, the difference is that Hitler, at the end, was moving non-existent army divisions where Kim has real ones.
It begs the question, what would Hitler have done if he had just a couple crude nuclear devices?
A Chinese analyst recently stated that we must realize that North Korea is not a “rational actor.”
Yikes! Does Kim really/already have crude nuclear devices? I knew he was working his scientists’ butts off to get them. Has he already succeeded???
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