Poll has Tim Burns ahead 48-47

Public Policy ^ | 5-16-2010 | Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

[crosslink]

PA-12 close at the finish Raleigh, N.C. – The special election to replace John Murtha looks to be headed for a photo finish, with Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz 48-47 in PPP's final poll of the race. PA-12 provides a clear example of how dimly voters are viewing politicians and parties across the board right now. Hurting Critz's chances is that 55% of voters in the district disapprove of Barack Obama and 63% have an unfavorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi. But national Republicans don't do much better in the district with 60% of voters expressing a negative opinion of Congressional Republicans and 63% saying the GOP ran the country poorly while George W. Bush was President. If Burns does pull out the victory on Tuesday night it will be more because of a continuing gap in interest between Democratic and Republican voters in the off year election than anything else. Critz is actually winning over more McCain voters (14%) than Burns is Obama voters (12%). This race is not an example of people who voted for Obama who are now unhappy with him and voting Republican. But those planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they're 'very excited' to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.

[crosslink]

Time to get the vote out.

[MNJohnnie]

Go get them PA-12!

[roaddog727]

Gooooooooooooo
Tim!

[rightwingextremist1776]

If it’s that close it can be stolen by the commies.....

[randita]

And among voters who say they're 'very excited' to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.

This is key. Seems like the post last week that showed Critz ahead by 6 was an outlier or else the undecideds are breaking big for Burns. With this poll, I'm inclined to think that the election mirrors that of MA-Scott Brown and hoping that Burns wins by 4-5 pts.

[crosslink]

Here is the key internal. He will win.
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Burns?
Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 36%
Not Sure 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Critz?
Favorable . 39%
Unfavorable..45%
Not Sure. 16%

[crosslink]

Does this look correct or are Dims over sampled:
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat 55%
Republican.. 36%
Independent/Other. 10%

[tcrlaf]

Don’t cheer yet...

Dem Turnout will be higher because of the Spector primary, and all the hype around it.

[nathanbedford]

tie usually goes to the Republican and in this case we have all the intensity.

Bet the ranch on Burns.

[MNJohnnie]

Even if it is close, this is bad news for Dems. This district voted for Kerry in 2004 and, while going for McCain by 1% in 2008, reelected Murtha with 19% of the vote in the same election. This should be a sure fire D district. If they have to work this hard in their safe seats, they are toast in the swing districts

[CPT Clay]

Public Policy Polling correctly predicted Scott Browns victory.

[Mr. Lucky]

From your lips to God's ears.

(A belated congratulations on the Memphis raid, by the way. I always thought that Forrest's cavalry charging up the grand staircase of the Gayoso House hotel would have made a great movie scene)

[MNJohnnie]

Good indicator but the thing to keep in mind is the the pace of change in congressional districts is glacieral.

CDs are gerrymandered to lean one way or the other on purpose to protect "Safe" seats for the dominate state party. If the Dems lose this seat it will be as big an upset as Scott Brown winning.

I just don't want any Freepers to panic if we don't win this. This is a very very hard seat for any R to win, especially one as tainted with “Big Business” ties as Burns.

[ScottinVA]

I know better than to get too excited about PA-12. William Russell polled very close to Murtha right up until Election Day; Murtha won with 58% of the vote. Apparently they have a jones for pork up there.

[Michael Barnes]

I wouldn’t bet the farm...PA-12 is a weird district.

[randita]

No. Dems outnumber Reps 2 to 1 in this district.

[NFHale]

“...Even if it is close, this is bad news for Dems....”

“Close” doesn’t stop horrible legislation from being passed.

Win or lose. There is no in-between. Every election MUST be viewed from those two parameters for us.

EVERY win for us is a HUGE loss for them. We need to do all in our power to make it so.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

It’s a very “pro-Democratic Party” Congressional District, so it will be very difficult for the GOP to take this seat. Another recent poll has Tim Burns behind by 5%. It will be awesome, if the GOP can, finally, win this seat!

[MNJohnnie]

EVERY win for us is a HUGE loss for them. We need to do all in our power to make it so.

Mega Dittos

[crosslink]

I agree as it is all about turn out. I did find it very encouraging that he is seen favorable and the opponent is unfavorable by the respondents