Posted on 04/03/2010 8:45:05 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This 4-03 UPDATE is a major revision to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. We have several new entries on the Master List which now includes a total of 91 Congressional Districts. In addition, we have added Real Clear Politics as our 5th "expert election evaluator".
We believe THIS LIST IS COMPLETE. It includes every District that one or more of our 5 "expert election evaluators" have placed in either the Toss-Up, Democrats rated as Leans-D or Republicans rated as Leans-R categories. But the list includes other Democrat seats that we believe are in play. And, if we are correct, any seat not on our list will not be a pickup for either the Republicans or Democrats in November. The great majority of these seats are either currently held by Democrat incumbents or are Open seats previously held by a Democrat. There are a few open Republican seats on the list and also a few Republican seats that our "experts" believe are going be seriously contested by the Democrats.
We have evaluated ALL Master List contests and placed the leading and/or "Freeper Endorsed" candidate in Column 1 and the closest contenders in Column 2 and 3 in ranking order. We expect some of these choices to be challenged and it is certain that the choices will change as we progress through the election cycle. Note that in most cases we have chosen not to include candidates on this list that have not officially announced they are running. When new announcements are made our list of challengers will be reviewed and updated as necessary.
Other significant changes for this UPDATE include:
We have added CA-3, DE-AL, FL-25, GA-8, HI-1, LA-2, MN-1, MN-6, NE-2, NM-1, PA-6, WA-8 to our list of contested districts.
We have color coded the chart to highlight things of importance. The RED flag in column 1 is the way we will show additions to the list or major changes in the future. On today's chart the new entries to the list are highlighted.
We have added a LIGHT YELLOW highlight for those states where there is a near-term Primary or Run-Off election. Note that the Texas Run-Off Election will be on April 13th so it deserves special attention.
We have color coded in LIGHT BROWN the Republican Open Seats and the Republican Seats that are believed by our "expert election evaluators" to be at risk.
We have color coded in LIGHT GREEN Primaries that are completed and where no Run-Off election required. Illinois is currently the only state in that category.
I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in three files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1 in PDF format
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2 in PDF format
Color-Code-Chart in PDF format
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Thanks for replying AND for planning to remove the endorsement. It’s probably best to leave out any endorsement at least till the primaries are over unless there is someone totally out of
And, special thanks for all the hard work put into getting the chart together. It’s very impressive, and I KNOW how much work goes into it. Well done.
Mary Falin was the Congresswoman from OK-5. I think this is a very safe Republican seat. The Republican Primary will decide the next person to take the seat.
BTTT
I think one factor that will help Andy Harris is the recently announced entry of former governor Ehrlich in the governors race. He will generate Republican turnout to get a sane person back in the governor's mansion, before current governor Martin (it's never my fault) O'Malley and the rat legislature tax us to death.
Ehrlich should have a field day with MOM, as he is unaffectionately known. MOM is the biggest whiner I have ever heard and has been all but invisible after he couldn't deliver on campaign promises and the damage the Rats did by delaying slots licensing until they could take credit has backfired as, with the downturn in the economy, it has become a real fiasco.
Now, let's get someone to go after Hoyer (MD-5); there is enough of his pompous posturing on tape to cut the legs from under him if we can find someone credible to run against him.
You disagree with that assessment?
Not that the party is splintered. But I'd classify the split as between social Conservatives and fiscal Conservatives.
Since the IL primary candidates are set, I'd like to start with IL Districts 8, 10, 11 and 14. See candidates above on Master List.
If you have any firsthand information or sources to information about these IL races (polling information would be terrific, if it's available) or links to any articles in local rags concerning the race, please Freepmail me ASAP.
The Lone Star State is next, so if you have any info about TX 17, 23, and 25, please send it my way.
If you'd like to help me with this Key Race Spotlight blog, let me know. There are almost 100 races which need spotlit and only 7 months until Nov.!
Your help is greatly appreciated.
Thanks for the ping!
Don’t give Hoyer Maryland 5 yet - from AP:
Among the 37 black Republicans running for U.S. House and Senate seats in November is Charles Lollar of Maryland’s 5th District.
A tea party supporter running against House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., Lollar says he’s finding support in unexpected places.
The 38-year-old U.S. Marine Corps reservist recently walked into a bar in southern Maryland decorated with a Confederate flag. It gave his wife Rosha pause.
“I said, ‘You know what, honey? Many, many of our Southern citizens came together under that flag for the purpose of keeping their family and their state together,’” Lollar recalled. “The flag is not what you’re to fear. It’s the stupidity behind the flag that is a problem. I don’t think we’ll find that in here. Let’s go ahead in.”
Once inside, they were treated to a pig roast, a motorcycle rallyand presented with $5,000 in contributions for his campaign.
Wow! Charles Lollar for President!
(not really—yet—but I like the way this man thinks!)
Hoyer’s on the 2nd tier list - the list of about 25 races that COULD come into play. He’s not out of the woods, by any means.
Do you have a source for that story? I’d like to have it. Thanks.
-PJ
We will post an update tomorrow, Saturday April 10th. That post will provide links to a new website we've developed as a home for our Master list.
I've added you to our Ping List so you shouldn't miss the post.
Anyone wanting on our Vulnerable Democrats Ping List should FreepMail a request to interceptpoint.
Would love to see the status of Fl-19 a seat left open by the sudden and humiliating resignation of US Rep Robert Wexler (D). The GOP candidate, Ed Lynch, now running in the special GENRAL election created by the resignation is the brilliant conservative business man who forced Wexler out.
After Fox News ran a number of reports that Wexler was living in Maryland, had no legal residence in FL and refused to answer questions about his residential status, Lynch sued Wexler to make him prove a legal FL residential status and the judge refused Wexler’s request to dismiss the case. Faced with having to produce documents which would have been evidence of perjury, Wexler abrubtly resigned.
So now there is a great chance that this once solidly dem district will go GOP on April 13th, next Tuesday.
Any Broward County Freepers out there with the latest please help a brother out and give us the straight skinny.
ping
ping
Good analysis
IP Great job with the spreadsheet. Could you put me on you ping list?
Have another site for you to look at to get names...
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=1130
You can always get the latest version of our list at KeyHouseRaces.com
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