You can always get the latest version of our list at KeyHouseRaces.com
That site is interesting and a different way of looking at things. I am concerned over “irrational exuberance” though because that can lead to complacency and over confidence.
I prefer the cautious approach at this stage and analyzing trends, as the system you’ve devised does.
Some think the pollsters are way off their game this year and better get with it soon or they’re going to have to eat crow. Part of pundit analysis stems from the results in 2008, which clearly was a year of aberrations. Anti-Bush sentiment factored in more strongly than was generally acknowledged, IMO. 2008 did not represent a major realignment toward Democrats. Like 1994, it was a “temper tantrum”.
Iin 1994, the pundits were caught flat footed. Most live in a vacuum and have little awareness of the extent of the anger and unrest brewing in the hinterlands. Let’s hope they wake up the day after the election to realize that the Tea Partiers are not a bunch of fringe kooks. They are mainstream tsunami and they come out and vote in waves. Some may wake up before then, and if they do, we’re going to clearly see their projections swing to the GOP.
It will also be interesting in the months to come to see where the DNC targets its money. If it’s spreading it around in dozens of races, then polls show them they aren’t in big trouble. If they start pulling in their horns and targeting only the 41 or 42 seats they absolutely HAVE to have to retain control, then we’ll know they are in danger of losing control. Where the money goes can reveal a lot.