Posted on 04/03/2010 8:45:05 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This 4-03 UPDATE is a major revision to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. We have several new entries on the Master List which now includes a total of 91 Congressional Districts. In addition, we have added Real Clear Politics as our 5th "expert election evaluator".
We believe THIS LIST IS COMPLETE. It includes every District that one or more of our 5 "expert election evaluators" have placed in either the Toss-Up, Democrats rated as Leans-D or Republicans rated as Leans-R categories. But the list includes other Democrat seats that we believe are in play. And, if we are correct, any seat not on our list will not be a pickup for either the Republicans or Democrats in November. The great majority of these seats are either currently held by Democrat incumbents or are Open seats previously held by a Democrat. There are a few open Republican seats on the list and also a few Republican seats that our "experts" believe are going be seriously contested by the Democrats.
We have evaluated ALL Master List contests and placed the leading and/or "Freeper Endorsed" candidate in Column 1 and the closest contenders in Column 2 and 3 in ranking order. We expect some of these choices to be challenged and it is certain that the choices will change as we progress through the election cycle. Note that in most cases we have chosen not to include candidates on this list that have not officially announced they are running. When new announcements are made our list of challengers will be reviewed and updated as necessary.
Other significant changes for this UPDATE include:
We have added CA-3, DE-AL, FL-25, GA-8, HI-1, LA-2, MN-1, MN-6, NE-2, NM-1, PA-6, WA-8 to our list of contested districts.
We have color coded the chart to highlight things of importance. The RED flag in column 1 is the way we will show additions to the list or major changes in the future. On today's chart the new entries to the list are highlighted.
We have added a LIGHT YELLOW highlight for those states where there is a near-term Primary or Run-Off election. Note that the Texas Run-Off Election will be on April 13th so it deserves special attention.
We have color coded in LIGHT BROWN the Republican Open Seats and the Republican Seats that are believed by our "expert election evaluators" to be at risk.
We have color coded in LIGHT GREEN Primaries that are completed and where no Run-Off election required. Illinois is currently the only state in that category.
I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in three files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1 in PDF format
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2 in PDF format
Color-Code-Chart in PDF format
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How many are moot as to the challenging Republican because the primary is past? (Like Illinois’ Kirk)
That was my first thought. He’ll probably be on the list in another week or two. Tho, it being IL, one never knows.
The color code shows “FReeper endorsed candidate.” How did they get that endorsement? Was there a vote among voters in a given state, or did JimRob endorse, or did a FReeper in good standing (an individual) endorse the candidate? I just haven’t seen any information on FR endorsing anyone.
It’s hard to believe that Kirk’s open seat is a toss-up. He’s my Rep (gag), and this is the NW suburbs of Chicago, a typically conservative area.
BTW, thanks for the awesome charts!
Yeah Kansas is often described as a 3 party system. RINO, Rat, and Conservative. The RINOs elected Dennis Moore in the first place back in 1998 over conservative freshman Vince Snowbarger.
In 2002 he beat conservative Phil Kline. In 2002 Moderate Adam Taff. In 2004 he easily beat conservative Kris Kobach. In 2006 he crushed ??? Chuck Ahner.
Jordan against Moore last time and lost by about 17 points. Googling him he's either strongly pro-life and fiscally conservative or a loser with a big government record. ;d
Lightner ran in 2004 and placed a distant third in the primary won by Kobach by a hair over Taff.
The rat bosses hate Case for “disrespecting” Akaka by daring to run against him in the primary. Ambitious fellow Case.
It was huge for Obama but in 2004 Bush won 48% in that district. And Linda Lingle carried it twice. Djou is the strongest candidate available. If he can get into the high 30’s he’ll win the special.
Especially by people who don't live here.
You are correct. FR is not endorsing anyone.
These designations were simply used to indicate that someone on FR had declared a strong preference for a candidate based on qualifications, views on the issues and ability to win in November. So it was a useful tag to use as we developed the list and ranked the candidates. That effort is now complete and we have our initial rankings. So we will remove the "Freeper Endorsed" designation in the next update.
We are just listing the key races in the House of Representatives. We have our hands full with that and have left the Governors and the Senate to others.
I live in Michigan now, but I came back to my hometown in Illinois this weekend for Easter, and found out that one of Phil Hares offices was next to my home church downtown. I don’t keep up on Illinois politics, so I was ashamed to learn that Phil was from my home district. :(
Charlotte Bergmann responds to Rep. Steve Cohen’s racist remarks on Tea Party. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2486911/posts
sad, isn’t it ? It’s just amazing how we’ve become a people who let some quick talking self-promoter who knows and cares about nothing beyond his own interests go to Congress (or, dare I say, White House) to “represent” us.
I don’t understand Ohio District 2 with Jean Schmidt — she is the incumbent Republican and that district leans Republican.
So Jean Schmidt of OH isn’t the only Republican on the list. I misted Dan Lungren.
Thanks for all your work.
But I’m talking about Mary’s seat she is vacating in the House.
Do you know which one that will lean?
Most Republican seats are rated SAFE-R by our 5 "experts". OH-2 is not quite that strong. Schmidt should win but it may be in play and needs to be watched and extra support provided if the seat turns out to be at risk.
Sorry about that. What state is Mary in?
Thanks for the info! Your list is AWESOME — just couldn’t figure out that one.
Oklahoma!
Again.. thanks for all your work in putting this together.
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