Posted on 04/03/2010 8:45:05 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This 4-03 UPDATE is a major revision to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. We have several new entries on the Master List which now includes a total of 91 Congressional Districts. In addition, we have added Real Clear Politics as our 5th "expert election evaluator".
We believe THIS LIST IS COMPLETE. It includes every District that one or more of our 5 "expert election evaluators" have placed in either the Toss-Up, Democrats rated as Leans-D or Republicans rated as Leans-R categories. But the list includes other Democrat seats that we believe are in play. And, if we are correct, any seat not on our list will not be a pickup for either the Republicans or Democrats in November. The great majority of these seats are either currently held by Democrat incumbents or are Open seats previously held by a Democrat. There are a few open Republican seats on the list and also a few Republican seats that our "experts" believe are going be seriously contested by the Democrats.
We have evaluated ALL Master List contests and placed the leading and/or "Freeper Endorsed" candidate in Column 1 and the closest contenders in Column 2 and 3 in ranking order. We expect some of these choices to be challenged and it is certain that the choices will change as we progress through the election cycle. Note that in most cases we have chosen not to include candidates on this list that have not officially announced they are running. When new announcements are made our list of challengers will be reviewed and updated as necessary.
Other significant changes for this UPDATE include:
We have added CA-3, DE-AL, FL-25, GA-8, HI-1, LA-2, MN-1, MN-6, NE-2, NM-1, PA-6, WA-8 to our list of contested districts.
We have color coded the chart to highlight things of importance. The RED flag in column 1 is the way we will show additions to the list or major changes in the future. On today's chart the new entries to the list are highlighted.
We have added a LIGHT YELLOW highlight for those states where there is a near-term Primary or Run-Off election. Note that the Texas Run-Off Election will be on April 13th so it deserves special attention.
We have color coded in LIGHT BROWN the Republican Open Seats and the Republican Seats that are believed by our "expert election evaluators" to be at risk.
We have color coded in LIGHT GREEN Primaries that are completed and where no Run-Off election required. Illinois is currently the only state in that category.
I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in three files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1 in PDF format
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2 in PDF format
Color-Code-Chart in PDF format
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Today’s major update to the Vulnerable House Democrat Master List.
BFLR & BTTT !!
Thank you.
That’s quite a big list. I think we need to closely watch the upcoming special elections in Hawaii and upstate New York.
Hopefully Phil Hare from Illinois will be added to that list soon.
Do you think Leahy and Welch are gonna get a free ride this time in VT?
Both have challengers and they are getting some $$$.
What’s going on with that NY race ? I thought Paterson just declared he wouldn’t hold a special election for it (claiming they can’t afford it) ?
Excellent work; in MA 10 Jeff Perry was just endorsed by Senator Brown and is a very strong candidate in Plymouth County and on Cape Cod.
If the GOP was a bunch of spineless pu$$ies who secretly love Obamacare, they’d ALL be vulnerable.
Thanks so much for letting me know whom to send campaign contributions since I won’t even answer calls from the RNC.
One of our major purposes in developing this list was to facilitate giving our financial and other support directly to the candidates that we like here in FR. The days of me sending money to the RNC and on to some RINO candidate are over. Forever.
Boot Kratovil bump!
ping for later review! great work!
Why is Dan Lungren on the list? He’s a Republican incumbent in a R district.
Just...wow. What an awesome list. Thanks for putting it together. This is how we win elections, not through the RNC.
So we will be following the Lungren race and if and when it appears that he has it locked up we will remove CA-3 from the list. OTOH, if the race gets close, we want people to know it and to give Lungren the extra push he needs to hold on to his seat.
He is a blinded Obama follower.
Thanks for your work on this project.
Unfortunately I don’t see my representaive, Heath Schuler, on that list.
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