Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List

Interceptpoint | 28 March 2009 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

I have been thinking for some time that we need a really good list of the House Democrats that we hope to unseat in the 2010 election. Freeper randita has compiled a very nice list that is continuously being updated and I have used that as my primary source. The idea is to get Freeper recommendations on who we should be supporting in primaries and, after the primaries, who we really think can and should win. Given those inputs I will update the chart as necessary.

I've expanded the basic "who's running" to include the kind of data that Larry Sabato uses to evaluate the races. Based on a randita recommendation, I will also add in the Primary dates. I have also recorded the YES or NO vote by the House on the final Obamacare vote. Look for errors and report them if you see them.

Also, to keep the size of the chart down to a reasonable size I have limited the number of Challengers listed to 3. The # column shows how many that are actually showing on randit's list. And I may not have the best ones listed so we need Freeper comments on who the really serious candidates are. And for sure we need to know who the RINOs are.

So I'm soliciting inputs to add to the chart, to correct errors, to identify the best candidates etc. Don't be shy. Let us know what you think.

And lastly, the chart is currently just a .png to solicit help. I will work on filling in the blanks and at some point issue a real table version with live links to the candidates websites which are in fact already entered in the Excel file.

[BlessedBeGod]

Please put Melissa Bean IL 8 on the vulnerable list.

You beat me to it. For those who don't know, her district was Phil Crane's when he was in Congress.

[webstersII]

I’m giving money to candidates who have a chance of unseating a democrat, no matter what state they are in.

We need to concentrate our money in these races where we will get the most bang for our buck.

[webstersII]

Hey, let’s fill up both cards, Democrat and Republican, with conservatives so that no matter who wins, we win.

[Proangel]

Please add Adam Kinzinger (Conservative Republican) to defeat Debbie Halvorsen (Liberal Democrat).

Illinois 11th Congressional District

[randita]

Juan-input on the best challenger?

MI 7-Mark Schauer’s challengers:
Marvin Carlson, http://www.marvincarlson.com/
Joe Schwartz
Greg Merle, http://www.gregmerleforcongress.com/
Brian Rooney, http://runwithrooney.com/
Mike Stahly, http://www.stahlyforcongress.com/
Tim Walberg, http://www.walbergforcongress.com/Home.aspx

[TWfromTEXAS]

See my post #12. Ortiz got 57% of the vote and McCain only got 45% in 08. The fact that Bush got 55% in District 27 in 04 gives me some hope that we might win there.

[buzzsaw6]

Add these challengers to FL-2 Alan Boyd: Diane Berryhill-R Tallahassee, Eddie Hendry-R, Tallhassee, Steve Southerland-R, Panama City.
My money is on Steve Southerland.

[upchuck]

Suggestion: Do this as an Excel spreadsheet, post it on GoogleDocs and widely publish the link.

You can update/change it at will and anybody following the link will always see the latest, up to date data.

[InterceptPoint]

Much thanks to everyone for all the replies. Give me a day or so and I will incorporate recommendations and continue filling out the chart and explaining some of the mysteries like the # sign. That’s just my code for how many primary challengers there actually are (since I’ve only listed 3 and they may not be the best 3). And the blanks - they’ll get filled in with time and some Google research.

[McLynnan]

Democrat Chet Edwards in Texas 17 has some real opposition this time. The March primary didn’t have a clear cut GOP winner so Bill Flores & Rob Curnock will have a runoff on April 13. Chet is very vulnerable.

[InterceptPoint]

Suggestion: Do this as an Excel spreadsheet, post it on GoogleDocs and widely publish the link.

I can do that. It is starting as an Excel spreadsheet so it would be a piece of cake. But right now it just needs some work.

[randita]

Who’s the best challenger?

NV 3-Dina Titus challengers:
John Beard, http://beardforcongress.com/
Ed Bridges, http://www.edbridgesfornevada.com/
Dr. Joe Heck, http://heck4nevada.com/
Brad Lord Leutwyler, http://www.edbridgesfornevada.com/

[Juan Medén]

I just transferred into the area so I’ll have to do some snooping. I’ll get back to you on that one.

[erman]

where the heck is Chet Edwards ? Where is his name? He's a fake Texan that wanted to be Obamas running mate and has Nancy Pelosi's b#tt-boy forever.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Wouldn’t the Spawn of Sarbanes be more vulnerable than Ruppersberger or Hoyer? All three CDs gave President Bush between 43%-45% in 2004, but Sarbanes has far less seniority and has never run a tough race.

[buzzsaw6]

addendum to FL-2 Alan Boyd:
Mr. Boyd has a Dim challenger: state Sen. Al Lawson-Dim, Tallahassee.

[Parley Baer]

I will be doing what I can do add Loretta Sanchez, California to that list.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Joe Heck is the obvious choice in NV-03. A proven conservative who will not go wobbly once he wins, and has the experience to be able to hold the seat in 2012 even under new lines.

[AuH2ORepublican]

In the MI-07, Tim Walberg is a 100% conservative that can motivate both social and economic conservatives and served with distinction in both the state legislature and in his single term in Congress (he beat RINO Joe Schwarz and then the Democrat nominee in 2006, but then lost narrowly to Schauer amid Obama’s coattails in 2008).

[Kahuna]

IMO Heck.