Posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide
Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in Arizona’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.
But now Hayworth, a former congressman turned popular local talk radio host, is a formal candidate, and anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox has quit the race and endorsed him. For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Hayworth leads by seven points among male primary voters but trails by 23 among women. He edges McCain by five points among party conservatives, but the incumbent holds substantial margins among Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals.
Hayworth has been attacking McCain as not conservative enough, but the senator, who just two years ago was the Republican presidential nominee, has been countering with a number of heavyweight endorsements from the right. Palin will attend a McCain rally in Tucson later this month.
Polling last fall found that 61% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was out of touch with the party base.
Arizona Republicans will choose their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary, and for now that’s the major battle of this Senate cycle since no major Democrat has announced yet as a candidate.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of GOP Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987. Fifteen percent (15%) view him very unfavorably.
Hayworth is seen very favorably by 25% and very unfavorably by 15%.
While both candidates are well-known among likely primary voters, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.
Just 11% of Republicans in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 88% disapprove.
Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the performance of the state’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who is in a tough reelection battle this year. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These findings include six percent (6%) who strongly approve of how she’s doing her job and 17% who strongly disapprove.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
Looks like the Palin support might be paying off for McCain.
It should be noted that McCain has aggressively endorsed and campaigned for people like Scott Brown and it would not surprise me in the least that part of the agreement was to have them campaign for McCain if asked.
If you were Scott Brown back in December, how do you refuse?
So, I see the endorsement game as part of a “scratch-my-back-I’ll-scratch-yours” agreement that honorable people will choose to honor. Secondly, those in the Senate club protect their own which is why Senate Republicans choose Specter over Toomey, etc. Should they endorse the challenger and the incumbent still wins, the incumbent then has ammunition by which to punish some future legislative goals. It’s why Cornyn goes out of his way to support incumbent Republicans, even RINOs.
To me, political endorsements are like newspaper endorsements. Their only benefit to me is to tell me who I should vote against.
I’ve only skimmed all the comments here, so correct me if I missed it, but where is the conversation on exactly HOW JD is conservative?
He’s against amnesty. K. Got it.
But he’s a HUGE pork barreller!
And in 2003 he voted with his party, like a dead fish going with the flow, on Medicare Part D, the largest expansion of an entitlement program since Medicare itself passed in the 60s.
That’s your idea of a conservative?
McCain, on economic principle, voted against his party and against this unfunded mandate.
I must ask you:
What is the primary concern in this country right now?
A. Stopping the out of control spending, which is seriously jeopardizing us with all the financial rating companies, is keeping us in this recession, is preventing job creation, etc. etc?
B. Amnesty?
If you answer b, then Hayworth is your guy. Oh. And you’re also seriously out of touch with what is the primary problem in the country right now.
That doesn’t mean illegal immigration is not a problem; but priorities, people!!
Hayworth will not help the economy if he behaves and votes as he has in his past elected office.
It's not awful. It's backed up by plenty of evidence. Women admit as much themselves. If this doesn't apply to you, then you have no reason to be offended on behalf of the emotional women voters.
In addition, many here would not have voted for Reagan based on some of his tax and abortion votes as gov of California, and some of his endorsements and campaigning choices, too.
Let alone his choosing of Bush 1 for his VP and his campaigning for his presidential run.
BTW, if you excuse Reagan’s stumping for Bush’s presidential campaign as loyalty, then I’d think you’d be intellectually honest enough to recognize that Palin’s doing the same thing for McCain now ...
The difference between McCain’s 48% and Rick Perry’s was Debra Medina. It was a three-way race and Medina was polling between 15-20%. Once Medina eliminated herself with her truther comments, the fall-off split between Perry and KBH. AFAIK, there is no Medina in the Arizona race to serve as spoiler. It’s just one-vs-one and Hutchison was never close to Perry.
Five months is a long way to go and McCain is going to have several votes to cast and several speeches to give in which he might say/vote something that causes him to lose support. If there’s a debate, I hope Hayworth can hammer the amnesty issue.
rat...it's the new conservatism.
Can’t wait for debates, ol’ McPain doesn’t take or toss mud well.
Go JD!
GO JD!
SWEET! Will Sarah wake up and read the tea leaves on this? She could still graciously back out - you know, claim she’s got a recently developing ‘issue’ she’s got to deal with.
“He HELPED to PUT Obama in the White House!!!”
And then he tried to tell us we had nothing to fear from him! What?!
Yes. He said he was a “good family man”.
That’s only true if your family is the Sopranos.
“Gibbs for Liar of the United States! LOTUS”
The LOTUS of the TOTUS.
There’s no lib bias with Rasmussen. He’s straight-up and thoroughly enjoys his reputation as the best pollster in the country.
Seven points at this stage of the game is about as grim as it could be for McQueeg. This is terrific news.
“She [Palin] is on VERY thin ice with me on this one.”
Plus, she’s on the wrong side of the TEApublican momentum...hope she changes her mind...she needs to be with us...
TEApublicans will lead this next chapter - THANK YOU.
“I love Sarah, bought her book & now she is using my support to help McCain.”
Honestly, we should probably all go over to her Facebook page and make these comments - maybe that would help her to see the light? Dunno - she’s got 1.5 million fans...
http://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin
LOL.....exactly!
“I actually thought it was closer than this.”
But closing from the last polling - and WAY different from McLame’s initial polling released when JD jumped in several weeks ago.
Hmmm, interesting, then how do you suppose that JD got a 98% ACU rating while McCain only got 63%?
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