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Why Palin shouldn't run in 2012 ** John Ziegler (The math behind a Palin Victory!)
Daily Caller ^ | 3-10-10 | John Ziegler

Posted on 03/11/2010 12:56:52 PM PST by Joy Angela

Why Palin shouldn’t run in 2012

By John Ziegler   03/10/10 at 12:00 AM

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Last week I made a rare appearance on MSNBC (a network on which I have had numerous “YouTube moments” since the 2008 election, when they became the “Obama Network”) and shared some statements which apparently shocked some of my fellow conservatives.

Since even before the release of my documentary about the media coverage of Obama’s election, I have been described by many commentators (both as a compliment and as a condemnation) as Sarah Palin’s most ardent defender against the never-ending stream of unfair media attacks against her. What seemed to surprise people on both ends of the political spectrum was my assertion on “Morning Joe” that, based on her current path, and barring a literal act of God, there is absolutely no chance that Palin can beat Obama in 2012.

Since the television appearance was barely five minutes long and my view of this important subject is far more nuanced than can possibly be articulated in the microwave world of cable TV “news” (or even a later radio interview I did with host Joe Scarborough about this subject), I wish to fully explain my thinking so that any confusion about where I stand may be as limited as possible.

First, the reason I went on MSNBC is that Joe Scarborough and I have had a running (and sometimes rather pointed) e-mail exchange about his coverage of Sarah Palin which was escalated when his show did a seemingly endless segment on how intellectually deficient she supposedly is. Joe has offered me an open invitation to “debate” that and other issues related to Palin when I am next in New York where his show is broadcast. Since Palin was on the “Tonight Show” last week and because I live in Burbank, we decided the occasion might make for a good opportunity to do a quick “preview” of coming attractions. I also made it clear to him that there was something about Palin that I have wanted to get off my chest for several weeks. This was the issue of what her intent and potential is for the 2012 presidential race.

When I first met Palin at her home in early 2009, after our interview for my documentary we had a rather lengthy conversation, which of course eventually turned to her political future. Unsolicited, I offered my very strong opinion that, thanks to the media’s worship of Obama and their unfair destruction of her, that I thought it would be foolhardy for her to even consider running against him in 2012. My advice at the time was for her to run for Senate in 2014 and run in 2016 for President when presumably there will be no incumbent running and when the narrative about her (thanks to the media’s love of a good “comeback”) would likely be vastly more positive than in 2012. Palin was clearly listening intently but said almost nothing in response. Those who witnessed the conversation said she did not seem to like what she was hearing.

However, after the remarkable success of her book and the incredible decline in Obama’s political popularity, I started to think that, with any luck, Palin could win the Republican nomination and that she would at least have a shot against The One, assuming the economy didn’t significantly improve. But now I am thoroughly convinced that while Obama is somewhat vulnerable (if the economy improves, he wins big, if it stays the same, he wins very small, if it gets worse, he loses big), Sarah Palin has less of a chance to beat him than just about anyone else who is currently considered in contention.

The reasons I have come to this painful conclusion are numerous.



TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012; johnziegler; moresarahfun; palin; palin2012; palinmccain2012; rinolovfest; sarahpalin; tonightshow; ziegler; ziegler4romney
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To: Joy Angela; All

This is a very well thought out article, written by someone who is in fact a Palin supporter, has had personal conversations and communications with her, and is certainly in a position to understand the dynamics of a political race.

Ziegler didn’t throw this together while taking his morning crap, contrary to the kneejerk reactions of Palin supporters in this thread who think Ziegler is invoking ‘hate’, those morons obviously didn’t read the article, or if they did, they rejected out of hand some very logical arguments posed by Ziegler.

And it isn’t being suggested that Sarah shouldn’t run for President, what is being suggested is that the timing might not be right for 2012, and while that remains to be seen, it is a legitimate question to ask.


81 posted on 03/11/2010 3:39:30 PM PST by mkjessup
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To: EveningStar
I'm sure they're intelligent enough to read PAST the headline! :)
I'm sure there's a pony in that pile of horse manure! :)


LOL, "c'mon Silver, one stomp for a sugar cube, two stomps for a carrot!" ;)
82 posted on 03/11/2010 3:41:19 PM PST by mkjessup
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner; DoughtyOne; Clyde5445; Josh Painter; Joy Angela
Yeah, he's feeling neglected by Sarah and is crying out for attention.

Sad, considering everything he's done for her so far.

I have met John on several occasions, and I truly believe that he means well -- and has what HE thinks are Governor Palin's best interests in mind.
His extraordinary "Media Malpractice" film is a DEVASTATING portrayal of the State-Controlled-Media.
But Josh Painter's analysis of his current confused ranting is right on the money, IMHO.
John Ziegler is much better at documenting the PAST than he is at prediction the FUTURE.

83 posted on 03/11/2010 3:41:35 PM PST by RonDog
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To: Rational Thought
"If there is a strong Conservative candidate, Palin probably wouldn’t run."

Palin is the only real world conservative candidate out there.

All the other names that get thrown at us are one-issue no credential question marks.

Sarah Palin is at this point well aware that she has to run, because nobody else is willing to carry the correct banner. 2012 is literally our last chance, and if we fail at getting our only chance in there we are toast. Hunter, Pence, DeMint, Romney, and essentially every other name that has been spoken has already shown that they are weak and willing to compromise on some vital issue.

84 posted on 03/11/2010 3:42:25 PM PST by editor-surveyor (Democracy, the vilest form of government, pits the greed of an angry mob vs. the rights of a man)
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To: Star Traveler

Oops, thought some were passed.


85 posted on 03/11/2010 3:43:00 PM PST by glorgau
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To: curiosity
Was Clinton widely known when he won the Dem nomination in 1992? Was Kerry in 2006?

Neither won a majority of the popular vote in their respective elections.

86 posted on 03/11/2010 3:44:09 PM PST by dirtboy
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To: Responsibility2nd
but you want me to read 4 pages of something written by someone I’ve never heard of to explain why I should be a Palin-hater too?

__________________________________________

Exactly how does stating reasons why Palin would lose a presidential election make one a "Palin-hater"?

87 posted on 03/11/2010 3:45:19 PM PST by wtc911 ("How you gonna get down that hill?")
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To: dirtboy
Oh yeah. Obumbler is doing great.

Drudge: GALLUP: NEW LOW FOR O
HOPE TURNS INTO DEEP DIVISION

Ziegler: "while Obama is somewhat vulnerable..."

88 posted on 03/11/2010 3:45:41 PM PST by Upstate NY Guy
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To: mkjessup
some very logical arguments posed by Ziegler.

Logical arguments? Are you kidding me?

The Tea Party is exactly where Palin should be hanging about now. And anyone who thinks the MSM won't savage ANY GOP nominee really hasn't been paying attention the last 46 years.

89 posted on 03/11/2010 3:46:02 PM PST by dirtboy
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To: indylindy

He just wrote a few fluff pieces to capitalize on Sarah’s huge popularity, in order to advance his own stature by writing about someone of her caliber.

He’s irrelevant, and obviously bought out.


90 posted on 03/11/2010 3:46:57 PM PST by editor-surveyor (Democracy, the vilest form of government, pits the greed of an angry mob vs. the rights of a man)
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To: JMS
He also accepts the idea that Palin is a “quitter” in the eyes of the public.....

_________________________________

In the eyes of the majority of the public that is exactly what she is. Her acolytes will never get it but that doesn't make it less true. Her quitting in Alaska killed any POTUS chances she may have had.

91 posted on 03/11/2010 3:47:55 PM PST by wtc911 ("How you gonna get down that hill?")
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To: glorgau

Don’t get me wrong... I’m not saying that none of them passed... I was just wanting to know so I could follow up on it myself... that’s all... :-)

There were four states that tried it last year... Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. I did not hear that any of those passed last year. So, I guess some states are at it again this year...


92 posted on 03/11/2010 3:48:06 PM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: Josh Painter

Just read your piece, Josh. Excellent work.


93 posted on 03/11/2010 3:48:15 PM PST by Al B.
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To: Eska
All I know is she was the best governor we ever had up here, and it’s all going down hill since she’s gone.

__________________________________________

All going downhill since she quit? Well, there's a resounding endorsement.

94 posted on 03/11/2010 3:50:27 PM PST by wtc911 ("How you gonna get down that hill?")
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To: wtc911; Responsibility2nd
You were saying ...

Exactly how does stating reasons why Palin would lose a presidential election make one a "Palin-hater"?

Well.., in case you have noticed, Palin-haters usually try to "cover themselves" by making up non-existent reasons why she would lose or shouldn't run, or is not qualified or "you-name-it"...

That's why the poster said that... from seeing it turn out that way in countless previous posts around here, plus the fact that he knows Palin... (and having covered this ground about 1,000 times before...) ... LOL ...

95 posted on 03/11/2010 3:52:19 PM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: NavyCanDo
"That's allot of opinion to make before we have even brought all the possible Republican candidates together for debate #1"

..."all the possible Republican candidates?" Those in favor of pro-American trade and needed social program cuts are not allowed in televised debates. The favored constituents (special import, government, government-education and government-corporate interests: harpies) who sponsor the "MSM" won't allow it.

Duncan Hunter Press Conference
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju604DgiGf4

No-vote!


96 posted on 03/11/2010 3:53:11 PM PST by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: Joy Angela

In his book, he (Mitt) says that global warming is a “real and present danger” and that it was partially caused by human activity. In 2004, Romney had said he didn’t know whether global warming was real, noting “I’m not a scientist.”
http://www.sltrib.com/ci_14391463

do you need another reason why Palin should run?


97 posted on 03/11/2010 3:53:38 PM PST by unseen1
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To: bwc2221
"I have read that Ziegler was disappointed in not being named to replace Meg Stapleton"

And the stupid little-leaguer just managed to prove why he was never in the running!

98 posted on 03/11/2010 3:53:40 PM PST by editor-surveyor (Democracy, the vilest form of government, pits the greed of an angry mob vs. the rights of a man)
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To: Joy Angela

She was elected by the people of Alaska to serve four years. She quit after two. Why exactly would those same people elect her to a six year position?


99 posted on 03/11/2010 3:53:43 PM PST by wtc911 ("How you gonna get down that hill?")
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To: wtc911; Eska
You were saying ...

All going downhill since she quit? Well, there's a resounding endorsement.

Sounds like one to me...

100 posted on 03/11/2010 3:53:45 PM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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