Posted on 01/18/2010 5:08:27 PM PST by Arec Barrwin
What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? An Analysis By Scott Rasmussen
Monday, January 18, 2010
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing that Republican challenger Scott Brown had closed the gap in Massachusetts to single digits. Prior to that release, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties… was that Martha Coakley was a lock,” writes The Politico’s Ben Smith, adding, “It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.”
A week later, the shock continued as our final poll in the race showed that Brown had pulled to within two points of Coakley. In fact, among those who were certain they would vote, Brown was up by two.
At that time, Brown was leading among political moderates, middle-income voters and those over 40. He enjoyed a dominant lead among unaffiliated voters and even picked up a modest number of Democrats. By every measure, Brown supporters were more engaged in the race and more excited about their candidate. Nothing that we have seen over the past week appears to have changed those dynamics.
The health care issue is front and center as the reason Brown has gained traction. While the plan enjoys more support in Massachusetts than it does nationwide, those with strong opinions on the subject are more likely to oppose the bill than support it. Perhaps the single most shocking thing about the Massachusetts race is the fact that a Republican is running against the president’s health care effort and winning in the Kennedys' home state.
Brown’s position on health care has been supplemented by his positions on national security issues, including the Christmas Day terrorist bomber. Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly want the man who tried to blow up a U.S. airliner tried in a military setting as a terrorist.
Over the past week, the battle in Massachusetts has been fully engaged by both parties. Brown raised over a million dollars in a single day last week and has reportedly continued to raise large amounts of money every day. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, labor unions and other Democratic organizations are pouring money into the race. A handful of polls came out over the weekend suggesting that Brown was in the lead, and news reports indicate that both campaigns' internal polls are showing the same thing.
Since the last Rasmussen Reports poll, the Coakley campaign has had to endure a number of missteps ranging from the candidate’s debate performance and comments about Afghanistan to her mistaken assertion that Boston Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankees' fan.
While those items may have hurt, the Coakley team got some good news as well. First, the heightened interest in the race may serve to increase turnout among Democrats who have been fairly apathetic about their candidate and the campaign. Second, President Obama himself showed up in Boston to rally the base on Sunday.
Where does that leave us? On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite in the race. However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. That’s why the president went to Boston. If his appearance boosts turnout among Democrats, the Democrat will win.
That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.
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I just don’t know how often Rassmussen is polling in MA. Was his new data supposed to be released today?
Yeah, I got the same feeling.
My first thought this morning was that the numbers were so extreme that Ras thought twice about telling anyone. No doubt he polls D, R and I. If they were seventy/thirty would YOU tell anyone? He’s already been accused of being biased, this would REALLY stir the pot. And, if he thought they might not be accurate, it would REALLY give him pause.
I don’t think he’s been intimidated....but....EXPECT A MIRACLE!
My guess is it will be Brown by about 3%. It is raining and snowing in Mass. which could cut down voting. We shall see.
Never seen anyone take so many words to say, “I don’t know.”
Like I posted above, I think he knows the voter fraud is going to skew the results, and the natural question is not why there was so much fraud, it's why the polls were so wrong.
Even Hannity winked at the notion on his TV show tonight. I wish someone in the MSM would track it rather than accept it, even if tracking it means calling out people by name.
But I know that that's not going to happen unless people flock to the streets as if Boston were Tehran if it ends up 60-40 or 55-45 Coakley.
-PJ
Weekend polling is the most unreliable of all.
In fact, Sunday polling almost always spikes in favor of Obama.
I have a theory for that: democrats are home to answer the phone, while Republicans are in Church. HAR!
Maybe. Maybe not. Rasmussen's website went down this morning. Could be someone hacked it and has his polling data. This has been a very strange couple of days for Rasmussen. I've never seen anything like it before.
-PJ
That could happen on Wednesday morning.
An uprising heard round the world.
I can’t explain it. If he ran his usual rolling poll, then
I would think he’d publish results and call them skewered if that were his opinion.
Weird .. the ‘poll’ that isn’t a poll.
Check yer pings from me. One is a delight!
Our friend, jhw61 is heading out for her big day tomorrow!
The thing that really bothers me is that he would not do the obvious, a poll 1 or 2 days before the election. Instead, he's content with a poll from a week ago and miscellaneous questions about what that poll meant. Just strange.
I well remember the downward spiral Zogby went on, to a point where his polls are meaningless. Hope Scott isn't following the same path.
No, I suspect he was Talked To.
“Your site was down this morning. It can be down a LOT, you know...”
_________________________
BINGO! Coincidence? I think not. Did he receive several dead fish? Remember, wounded Marxists are dangerous Marxists.
There's also the possibility he doesn't believe his own polling data, or fears massive Rat fraud.
Why on earth would one of the most high profile, most well-respected polling companies in the nation sit out the last week of what is arguably one of the most important elections in recent US history?
Makes absolutely no sense, and neither does his making any predictions about the eventual outcome of this race, given the above.
Unlike others, I have no theory as to why he sat out the last week in Massachusetts. My only point is that he's now damaged his reputation as a pollster for coming out with this curious (and unsubstantiated) call on the election outcome.
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