Our Call: Iran on Brink

DoD Buzz ^ | 12/30/2009 | Colin Clark

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

Predicting the end of a regime, especially one led by ruthless and wily survivors, always poses great risks to the prophet of doom. But the Iranian regime meets almost all of my indicators for the end of a government.

First, there are persistent reports that some of the security forces are refusing to use lethal force against their compatriots. On top of that, several news accounts have said that members of the security forces have been forced to surrender to crowds. One particularly noteworthy example had security forces “cowering” as angry crowds confronted them in the capital.

Then there are the number of senior officials the government is clearly forced to arrest out of a sense that it has lot control. When you are arresting

The Financial Times reports today that the regime has arrested “hundreds of people” in another crackdown. The paper notes this includes, “Dozens of politicians and journalists… including Ali-​​Reza Beheshti, the senior adviser to Mir-​​Hossein Moussavi, the opposition leader, and Nooshin Ebadi, the sister of Shirin Ebadi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate.”

And the unrest is rolling across the country, with violence reported in Tehran, Isfahan, and at least ifve other cities.

The Israelis must be watching all this with eagle eyes, hoping that the regime falls and is replaced by less jingoistic and less vicious types. I’m not willing to say the regime will fall in days, weeks or months, but it’s days look numbered.

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

Ping

[The KG9 Kid]

I wish I could be more hopeful about the Theocratic Iranian government taking a nose dive into the annals of history, but I can't imagine what would replace it would be any better.

Much has been said about 'the people' of Iran admiring the West and wishing to embrace a more liberal society. Problem is that a lot of the protesters we see in Iran are revolting in favor of 'Islamic Republic Lite'.

There will still be all those mullahs in charge of the country, even if they have to put on a masquerade of 'hope and change' should the current regime be torn down. I don't think change will happen over there, except for maybe changing the butler Ahmadinejad.

We'll find out who the next lunatic takes the reins there, all the while him being adored by the Western liberal media as a 'moderate voice'. Feh.

Without any means for the people to fight back against them, the current regime can stay in power by steamrolling the protesters with tanks.

[JasonC]

Oh, if the regime falls the result will be seriously different and pro western, pro modern. The young people have had it with the Islamicist crowd. No danger there.

No, the issue is, will the army actual split off and side with the people? The regime has enough goons to kill the entire populace willing to revolt, if not opposed by serious armed force. Only the army can stop them, the people can only stand around and make it clear to the generals that someone will be waiting to applaud if they pull off a coup.

[Cindy]

Thanks for the ping Sonofstrangelove.

SNIPPET from post no. 1:

"And the unrest is rolling across the country, with violence reported in Tehran, Isfahan, and at least ifve other cities."

[Cindy]

A Look at Iran
http://www.truthusa.com/IRAN.html

[PhilDragoo]

Just read Alan's excellent FULL ENGLISH VERSION OF KHAMENEI'S SECRET LIFE

CIA getting set up in Afghan by Obama bin Hidin. It could take two stones from its shoe by thinking outside of its box.

Iran is repressed by a vile ruler whose son is apparently as nasty as Saddam's.

Our pretendident boohooed more over buddy Professor Gates' racial toe-stubbing than over Neva's murder in cold blood by the Rat Boy he wants to hug.

Think about it: Barry won't meet with General McCrystal but he wants to parley hearty with the Holocaust Denier who is chargin' up his thousands of centrifuges for the attack on Israel which will coax the hidden imam from the well at Qum.

Hey, Barry, put down the golf clubs, put down the blow, put down the text to Larry Sinclair and provide for the common defense.

Carter brought us Khomenei. Obamuslim may bring us the twelfth imam.

I vote no.

[odds]

Problem is that a lot of the protesters we see in Iran are revolting in favor of 'Islamic Republic Lite'.

With meagre support from the West so far - never mind for a completely "secular, democratic Iran" - your point is well taken.

Much will rest with the Iranians inside Iran. They have this chance, hope they won't screw it up again.

If Iranians, INSIDE IRAN, will be happy with "an Islamic Republic Lite", then we all have to live with it. But mostly, THEY, the Iranians, Inside Iran, will have to live with their choices.

From a pontential "Islamic Republic LITE" point onwards, personally, I will not want to hear much about Human Rights violations, dubious elections, and all other nonsense anymore in Iran.

[odds]

pontential = Potential

[Scotsman will be Free]

“...that members of the security forces have been forced to surrender to crowds.”
Doesn’t mean the govt is going to go under. I remember seeing pictures of entire units of South Korean riot control troops being surrounded and surrendering to rioters.

[Psalm 73]

"And the unrest is rolling across the country...."

"Faster, please."
If this regime does not implode sometime (early) this year, we are all screwed.
Thanks for the post, sonofstrangelove - and "pray hard".

[Recon Dad]

You can bet that if things get real tough the Mullaha’s will call in outsiders like Hizbulla and Hamas who will have no problem confronting the opposition.

[mazda77]

The army and police will turn on Hizbulla and Hamas in a heartbeat. That is one of the problems with the Basiji operating in the country right now and why the army has not been called in. Persians proudly differentiate themselves from Arabs so hang on, the best is yet to come.

The only reason the populatuion supported the 79 revolution is they were promised a secular democracy if they supported the overthrow of the Shah. It was Jimmuh’s bunch of goons who worked with the mullahs to propogate that message. Happless Jimmuh was too naive to ever consider the two-faced ways of negotiating a deal in that part of the world so he took the mullahs word as cast in stone.

[world weary]

Need to stand back and watch. Foreign (meaning US) interference will only give the Iranian establishment more ammo to galvanize their fence sitting supporters and rally people to the governments cause (if the opposition is seen to be nothing more than US puppets they lose legitimacy, so by helping, we actually hurt).

If a coup is successful it might decrease the flow of arms into south Afghanistan and choke off the Taliban (benificial side effect, I’m learning/watching alot about Afghanistan atm).

The army is the real force to watch. Government monopoly of violence is one of the strongest reasons for the theocracy staying in power, take that away and the people can choose another leader. Hopefully better than the last one.

[FARS]

Mullah “don't support the people” talking points?

Ahmadi-Nejad has already declared that all the protests are guided and tactically handled by British, USA and Israeli agents with boots on the ground presence. so what are we being afraid of? Such a declaration being made for a second time?

There does not have to be any truth to matters for the regime to claim it and present it as fact. Fence sitters already have lots of pretext. We need to encourage the populace.

Which army are you talking about?

The former regular armed forces have been disarmed and sidelined. The recent “military sourced” declarations are a one man effort on behalf of Rafsanjani.

The PARA-military Revolutionary Guard is the real fighting force - and HERE you have a point. Talking point at least.

For now they are still not WITH the people in their actions, though both the Iranian (as opposed to Arab mercenary) Bassiji and Crowd Control forces are cutting back on their outright brutality and some are refusing to shoot at demonstrators.

With jobless at around 40% and inflation closer to that figure than the official 15% being given out by the regime in Iran, even the Guards have families to feed and need the work.

In the same breath, they have extended families who are out of work and suffering at the hands of the regime's mismanagement of the economy and outraged at the huge amounts being spent by the regime in Somalia, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria etc., while they cannot afford to buy adequate food. Hospitals are being built in some of those countries while Iranians live in the streets without health care.

Thus matters cut both ways and as things get worse, also weakening the regime's enforcement capability. Morale and emotion.

[Chode]

Prayers up for the Persian people...

[M Kehoe]

AZADI!

5.56mm

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks FARS.

[gleeaikin]

“There will still be all those mullahs in charge of the country,”

Just finished reading a 3 part report on Kamenei and his power base. He and his family are worth $36 billion. He has a personal guard of 200 people, a “palace guard” of about 500, and another 10,000 lesser guards. He has several large personal dwellings and has usurped a lot of the late Shah’s palaces. He and his favorite son have 100 thoroughbred horses, including one worth $7 million.

He is the opposite of his predecessor Khomeni who lived modestly and had a modest home and did not use the palaces. It will be interesting to see if the publication of this exposee has a significant impact on the revolutionary believers. The question is would the next mullahs revert to the ideals of the revolution or continue the “Caliphate” of Khamenei.

[world weary]

Just a little curious about what kind of "encouragement" your talking about. Statements by the US government to encourage the protesters? Financial and covert military aid? This is a snakes in a bag situation over there that quite frankly we don't have the experience to handle correctly, no one does. The slightest misstep and you turn a benificial (for us) revolutionary movement into something that WILL come back to bite us. The best course (as in most cases) is to do nothing and let the Iranian protesters and opposition sort this out for themselves, then deal with them when they form a new government.

If the movement is really as popular as it sounds then they have no need of support from us. If they can't make it work on their own then stepping in will only make another puppet regime that our soldiers will have to bleed to defend.