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To: sonofstrangelove

Need to stand back and watch. Foreign (meaning US) interference will only give the Iranian establishment more ammo to galvanize their fence sitting supporters and rally people to the governments cause (if the opposition is seen to be nothing more than US puppets they lose legitimacy, so by helping, we actually hurt).

If a coup is successful it might decrease the flow of arms into south Afghanistan and choke off the Taliban (benificial side effect, I’m learning/watching alot about Afghanistan atm).

The army is the real force to watch. Government monopoly of violence is one of the strongest reasons for the theocracy staying in power, take that away and the people can choose another leader. Hopefully better than the last one.


14 posted on 01/02/2010 5:09:36 AM PST by world weary
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To: world weary; All; Spunky; ~Kim4VRWC's~; 1035rep; 2ndDivisionVet; 4woodenboats; 5Madman2; ...
Mullah “don't support the people” talking points?

Ahmadi-Nejad has already declared that all the protests are guided and tactically handled by British, USA and Israeli agents with boots on the ground presence. so what are we being afraid of? Such a declaration being made for a second time?

There does not have to be any truth to matters for the regime to claim it and present it as fact. Fence sitters already have lots of pretext. We need to encourage the populace.

Which army are you talking about?

The former regular armed forces have been disarmed and sidelined. The recent “military sourced” declarations are a one man effort on behalf of Rafsanjani.

The PARA-military Revolutionary Guard is the real fighting force - and HERE you have a point. Talking point at least.

For now they are still not WITH the people in their actions, though both the Iranian (as opposed to Arab mercenary) Bassiji and Crowd Control forces are cutting back on their outright brutality and some are refusing to shoot at demonstrators.

With jobless at around 40% and inflation closer to that figure than the official 15% being given out by the regime in Iran, even the Guards have families to feed and need the work.

In the same breath, they have extended families who are out of work and suffering at the hands of the regime's mismanagement of the economy and outraged at the huge amounts being spent by the regime in Somalia, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria etc., while they cannot afford to buy adequate food. Hospitals are being built in some of those countries while Iranians live in the streets without health care.

Thus matters cut both ways and as things get worse, also weakening the regime's enforcement capability. Morale and emotion.

15 posted on 01/02/2010 11:04:01 AM PST by FARS (Be well, be happy and THRIVE! Happy New Year.)
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