Posted on 11/02/2009 4:54:27 AM PST by markomalley
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman was primed to win Tuesday’s special election both before and after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out, according to a new poll.
The Public Policy Polling survey shows Hoffman leading the race by 17 points, 51-34, over Democrat Bill Owens with Scozzafava still in the race and taking 13 percent. In a straight head-to-head matchup with Owens, Hoffman’s lead held at 54-38.
The poll was conducted over the weekend, during which time Scozzafava dropped out of the race Saturday and endorsed Owens on Sunday, but Hoffman led significantly at all stages.
Scozzafava dropping out of the race was initially seen as a boon to Hoffman, but this polling suggests her dropping out and backing Owens might have been his only hope to defeat Hoffman.
As it turned out, the poll shows that Scozzafava was taking such a negligible share of the vote that her exit probably didn’t matter. And she will remain on the ballot, so even those who were going to vote for her still can.
Siena is supposed to have another poll out soon, and we'll see if its results square with PPP's.
Could be a blowout. Fingers crossed for tomorrow. Go New York. (except in baseball ;-)
Her internal polls were most likely showing the same thing. She didn’t want the embarassment of finishing third in the race. I think it’s clear that she did not have the Republican parties (or conservatives) best interest in mind when she dropped out.
I think Rudy and Pataki’s endorsement of Hoffman have blunted any damage she could do. She can now go join the dumbocrats like she wants to anyways. Methinks her national career is done before it got started...
It would be such a delicious slap in 0bama’s face!
Praying for a hard thumping of the Dems tomorrow.
VA — Dems OUT
NJ — Dems OUT
NY23 — (keep the) Dems OUT
NO win for the donks tomorrow — not ONE.
I’m also going to go out on a limb and say her staff saw the internals and knew that in order to get someone from the right side of the aisle elected, she needed to drop out. Her own staff may have forced her out by saying they would quit if she didn’t. Her own campaign manager has come out in support of Hoffman. That’s a little stunning. You would think her staff would just stay silent.
Just a little congressional race a full three years before the next presidential election, but yet it provides the clearest indication of exactly who all the major candidates are: Here are my grades from a conservative perspective.
Sarah Palin
First on October 22, Sarah Palin came out on her Facebook page with a strong endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. A clear shot across the bow of the GOP establishment favoring principle over party. Palin cited Reagan’s ‘time for choosing’ and the principles of “smaller government, lower taxes, strong national defense, and a commitment to individual liberty “. Palin’s bold action against the party establishment further established her strong conservative credentials. GRADE: A
Tim Pawlenty
Three days after the Palin endorsement, Pawlenty followed suit and endorsed Hoffman. He gave a solid endorsement. But Pawlenty seems jealous of Palin’s popularity and appears just trying to keep up with Palin among the conservative wing. Pawlenty scored a few points with conservatives for doing the right thing, but would have come out a bigger winner if he endorsed sooner. GRADE: B -
Mike Huckabee
On October 15, Huckabee made it very clear he could never support a pro-abortion candidate, but yet did not endorse Hoffman despite saying he agrees with him on most issues. Huckabee had a chance to publicly be the first leading candidate to make the endorsement, but instead showed he feared going against the establishment. Huckabee has now finally endorsed Hoffman, but only after Scozzafava threw in the towel. GRADE: C -
Mitt Romney
“I have chosen not to endorse the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd District.” Basically identical to Huckabee, but Romney did not articulate why he could not endorse Scozzafava and gave no praise to Hoffman. The thought of going against the GOP and supporting a conservative did not even appear to cross Romney’s mind. GRADE D
Newt Gingrich
Not only did Newt endorsed Scozzafava, but he attacked those who dared support Hoffman. Gingrich completely mischaracterized this election, insisting it was anti 10th Amendment to go against the party operatives to endorse the conservative. Newt’s star has fallen far since leading the 1994 revolution, and instead of being a visionary is now a simple establishment guy. Now, hypocritically he has finally endorsed Hoffman. GRADE: ZERO
I hope Hoffman pulls this out tomorrow. I won't make a prediction as my history of political prediction is hideous.
Looking forward to tomorrow popcorn ready!
Planeloads of ACORN/SEIU in transit.
It is honestly a real shame about Newt. I had the pleasure of voting for him as my congressman when I lived in Georgia. There was a time when he was articulate, innovative and courageous in his conservatism.
I can’t bring myself to hate the guy and I still feel like he can contribute to the conservative cause here and there. But his days as a leader of conservatives is over. It’s just a damn shame.
I agree with you. Newt was great when he worked with and for us.
Kinda makes you wonder what was in the FBI file that the Clinton’s had on him...
Please Please Please let this be true.
That’s why Hoffman has to win by a huge margin,
to keep the fraud from having an effect,
and to keep ACORN’s “Secretary of State Project” from stealing the election from the winner (as in Minnesota).
The RNC should Steele themselves for the unemployment line. There is where our next effort should lie.
I think the Dems will win in the special election in CA (10th district). Garamendi should beat Harmer, but it will be a lot closer than it should be in a deep blue district.
Newt lost me when he got in the global warming bed with Al Sharpton.
Just got a call from Newt Gingrich PAC from 866-611-4385....boy did she get an earful....she just said ‘ok,ok’ and wanted to hang up and I kept letting her have it!!!!
Everyone. Eagles Up! Do ANYTHING that you can do in the next day. Outside of the Free Republic Bubble, talking just to ourselves, preaching just to the choir.
Be proactive and find a way to help in the NY-23rd, even if you are miles and states away form this election district--you can do so by phone and fax and e mail. The Obama White House has thrown down the gauntlet. They cannot suffer a MASSIVE OBAMA PR LOSS if this district goes to Conservative Doug Hoffman.
Crunch time, folks.
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