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Is the Dollar Going to Collapse?
Human Events | 10/09/2009 | Mark Skousen

Posted on 10/10/2009 8:02:36 AM PDT by ChessExpert

Rumors are flying that secret meetings are taking place between Arab states, China, Russia, Japan and France, to dump the dollar and replace the U.S. currency’s role in the pricing of oil. The dollar fell against the euro, yen and Swiss franc, while gold hit new highs of $1,041 an ounce.

Is there any truth to the rumors that the dollar is being replaced by a basket of foreign currencies, and what will be the impact your investments and the U.S. economy?


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Government
KEYWORDS: commodities; currency; dollar; economy; globaleconomy; gold; missinglink; third100days
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To: egannacht
You've made a good point: prices have gone up, but so have our wages, furthermore, our “real” (inflation adjusted) income has gone up.

We can count an increase in real income as a success. Did we need all this inflation to achieve it? I certainly don't think so.

Some economists have argued that some inflation may be beneficial due to the (alleged) “stickiness” of wages in a downward direction. For example, if we have two percent inflation per year, wages in a declining field might be held constant. That would be a 2% reduction in real terms. It is claimed that this is easier for people to accept compared to an outright reduction of wages in a noninflationary environment. There is a reduced likelihood of strikes or other labor disruption.

It's an argument, but I'm not sure I buy it. People are pretty smart and adaptable. They can understand wage reductions, or layoffs. Perhaps a clear signal is better than a policy of deception.

It is hard for me to see any merit to inflation above 2% per year.

121 posted on 10/10/2009 8:56:17 PM PDT by ChessExpert (The unemployment rate was 4.5% when Democrats took control of Congress. What is it today?)
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To: Canedawg
Please People....if you haven't given to the freepathon yet, do so now and as generously as possible...

in the old days, a freepathon would be a short event....

so lets get this one wrapped up quickly...do it now.....thanks....

122 posted on 10/10/2009 10:09:27 PM PDT by cherry
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To: allmost
what are the ramifications for the other countries if they do this?.....I think they would be really awful....

We've supported the mid-east oil exporters and China etc...what happens when our large economy no longer buys their stuff?

123 posted on 10/10/2009 10:11:18 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Batrachian
You are one of those who probably think there is more silver than gold, too.

Nam Vet

124 posted on 10/10/2009 10:17:11 PM PDT by Nam Vet ("Goodnight Mrs. Calabash, Wherever you are ! ")
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To: ChessExpert

The dollar WILL NOT COLLAPSE.

It will probably erode away.

If you have a small or undiversified economy, your currency can collapse overnite, like the world trade center.

If you are really big like the US, your currency can slowly erode away like a mountain, but it won’t do the overnite belly up like some small countries like Iceland.


125 posted on 10/10/2009 11:34:14 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: cherry
what are the ramifications for the other countries if they do this?.....I think they would be really awful.... We've supported the mid-east oil exporters and China etc...what happens when our large economy no longer buys their stuff?

Oil exporters are hit hard by a falling Dollar. Oil (for now) is denominated in dollars so every increment of revenue they earn is worth less if they try to import anything from countries whose currency is strengthening relative to the greenback. Plus they need to charge more which generally decreases demand. China has been gearing for War in the past few decades. They've been buying up officially and promoting internally massive acquisitions of dollar denominated commodities, such as gold, as a hedge. China's actions are the most worrisome as they hold vast amounts of US treasuries (over $800 billion) and can easily influence a precipitous drop if they chose to do so. It would hurt their exports in the short term so the moves are more of a slow pull back at this point. Any outbreak of hostilities in places such as Taiwan could see them simply wagging treasuries in the air over our heads while they act with aggressive impunity. A pretty rotten situation we're in. Our people will pay with pay with extensive misery in the short term, our allies will most likely pay with their lives.
126 posted on 10/11/2009 4:08:55 AM PDT by allmost
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To: allmost
will pay with pay with

Apparently the coffee hasn't reached my fingers yet this morning. :)
127 posted on 10/11/2009 4:14:20 AM PDT by allmost
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To: runninglips
Indeed I do. Great days except for the communist anti-war movement.
128 posted on 10/11/2009 4:32:40 AM PDT by Nuc1 (NUC1 Sub pusher SSN 668 (Liberals Aren't Patriots))
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To: P-Marlowe

The problem is (and it’s a big problem) gold isn’t money anymore. A confiscation scenario isn’t going to happen, or if it were, there would be far greater things to worry about, and regardless would be widely and utterly ignored. The real issue of a credible currency is trust in government, rule of law, property rights, human rights, etc. Do you think people trust government right now?


129 posted on 10/11/2009 4:57:10 AM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: Nuc1

In the ‘70’s, my father decided to buy gold. He was offered a gold certificate or gold coin. Let’s see, which would be better - a piece of paper or the actual coin. He picked the coin.

A few months later, that company went belly up and left a lot of people holding pieces of paper.

His thought was that if he or my mother had to be put in a nursing home, I would have gold coins to pay them some little extra’s. Fortunately, I didn’t have to do that.


130 posted on 10/11/2009 4:57:50 AM PDT by BuckeyeOhio ("Churchill was a governor; Hitler was a community activist".)
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To: ohiogrammy

The “man you spoke with” is pulling a scam.


131 posted on 10/11/2009 4:59:37 AM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: runninglips

Lots of misconceptions on that. The 10k reporting requirement refers to CASH. Write a check, paid by check, no problem. Yes, there’s a record of that, which is why the reporting requirements for cash itself.


132 posted on 10/11/2009 5:03:39 AM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: BuckeyeOhio
I am not sure gold will be the thing to have but it has a proven track record. I would own some if I could afford it.
133 posted on 10/11/2009 6:51:32 AM PDT by Nuc1 (NUC1 Sub pusher SSN 668 (Liberals Aren't Patriots))
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To: staytrue
“The dollar WILL NOT COLLAPSE. It will probably erode away.
...”

That makes sense. I hope you are right!

One implication is that one might do well to invest elsewhere, buying on dips. I've read that there is more leverage investing in gold miners, than in gold itself. But one can invest in mining generally: gold, silver, copper, etc. One can even invest in commodities generally. One can also invest in foreign stocks and bonds. These are all bets against the dollar.

Why bet against the dollar? Because of the massive debt put in place by Obama and the Democrats. As things stand, it seems we will have a sly defaulting on the debt through future inflation. As an alternative, it is conceivable that we could grow our way out of this problem. But the Democratic policies are not growth policies; they are contraction policies.

134 posted on 10/11/2009 8:31:56 AM PDT by ChessExpert (The unemployment rate was 4.5% when Democrats took control of Congress. What is it today?)
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To: Nam Vet
"You are one of those who probably think there is more silver than gold, too."

Total world output of silver for 2006 was 19,961 tons, versus 2,343 tons for gold. So, are you one of those who think that gold is somehow a more common metal? The price differential between the two metals should have tipped you off. Silver is a far more common metal in terms of current and historic production. I won't bother responding to the other boneheads.

135 posted on 10/11/2009 9:37:43 AM PDT by Batrachian
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To: ChessExpert

ping tt myself


136 posted on 10/11/2009 10:59:11 AM PDT by happygrl (Hope and Change or Rope and Chains?)
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To: P-Marlowe
You could be right. But circumstances are a lot different today. In the 30's people believed that gold was money, and actually held it. The world believed that gold was money, and welcomed it backing currency. Today, after years of central banks denunciation of gold being "neanderthal", most do not think of gold as money, but as some useless metal that a bunch of nutty goldbugs go for.

The store of value held in gold by American citizens may be insignificant these days.

137 posted on 10/11/2009 11:29:34 AM PDT by GregoryFul
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To: ASOC

When I’ve purchased gold or silver or collectibles, I’ve never been asked for SSn, etc., just certified $ for goods. Lots of people use a name identical to mine. The records are my own business.


138 posted on 10/11/2009 11:49:52 AM PDT by GregoryFul
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To: ChessExpert

btt


139 posted on 10/11/2009 1:47:03 PM PDT by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: seowulf

I sort of agree with you, but property taxes are not a recent commie phenomenon, either. They were around right from the git-go. For just one example, the Fire Department.

Different stations used to fight each other on the way to a fire! However, it wasn’t “universal service” either. You paid yer dues, and install a plaque on your house that proved the insurance was paid up. Otherwise the house might just burn... The point is, “civilization” is not the default, all those things we take for granted as a society cost money.


140 posted on 10/11/2009 5:44:00 PM PDT by Freedom4US
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