Election 2010: North Carolina Senate (Burr Tops Foes by 10 Or More)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | September 17, 2009

[MitchellC]

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in NC September 15, 2009
Burr (R) 48%
Marshall (D) 38%
Other 3%
Not sure 11%

Burr (R) 48%
Lewis (D) 32%
Other 7%
Not sure 14%

Burr (R) 48%
Etheridge (D) 34%
Other 3%
Not sure 15%

Richard Burr’s U.S. Senate seat has a recent history of high turnover, but the incumbent Republican holds double-digit leads over three Democratic challengers in an early look at North Carolina’s 2010 Senate contest.

[snip]

Despite Burr’s early lead, however, incumbents who poll under 50% are generally considered vulnerable. Burr, first elected in 2004, is expected to seek a second term, but no incumbent has been reelected to the seat he holds since 1968.

Burr captures 85% or more of the state GOP vote in all three of the match-ups. Marshall performs best among Democrats, capturing 74% of the vote. Among unaffiliated voters, Burr leads Marshall by 28 points and tops the other two candidates by even more.

Although Barack Obama was the first Democrat to carry North Carolina in a presidential election since 1976, opposition to his health care reform plan runs high in the state. Forty-four percent (44%) favor the plan, but 53% oppose it. These numbers are virtually identical to the national average. Those who strongly oppose outnumber those who strongly favor it by 16 points, a fact likely to work in the conservative incumbent’s favor.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of North Carolina voters approve of the job President Obama is doing, but 52% disapprove. Thirty-six percent (36%) strongly approve of his job performance, while 43% strongly disapprove. This is roughly comparable to Obama’s ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) have a very favorable view of Burr, while 11% regard him very unfavorably.

Marshall is seen very favorably by 14% and very unfavorably by 12%. Lewis is viewed very favorably by 12% and very unfavorably by the same number (12%). Sixteen percent (16%) have a very favorable opinion of Etheridge, while 16% view him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

[snip]

Forty percent (40%) of voters in the state approve of the job Democratic Governor Bev Perdue is doing, while 58% disapprove. Those who strongly disapprove outnumber those who strongly approved by nearly two-to-one.

(Continued...)

[MitchellC]

NC *Ping*

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[The Sons of Liberty]

I’m betting that ACORN is already manufacturing votes for the dims.

[FreedomProtector]

House votes to cut off funding, but 75 stand by ACORN [full list here]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2342182/posts?page=27#27

Price (NC) just voted to fund ACORN.
I vomit every time he votes.
It would make my day to see him thrown out.

[MitchellC]

Saw it. Doesn’t that bill socialize student loans though?

[FreedomProtector]

Not sure. Any bill this house passes has been bad.

ACORN defunding was an amendment.

[Red Steel]

Despite Burr’s early lead, however, incumbents who poll under 50% are generally considered vulnerable. Burr, first elected in 2004, is expected to seek a second term.

But I very much doubt the incumbent is vulnerable when he has a 10 to 16% point lead over the 3 Dim challengers.

[MitchellC]

ping

[Impy]

Rats all under 40. That’s good. Marshall and Etheridge poll hardly any better than some lawyer named Lewis.

[MitchellC]

If it comes down to those three candidates (and someone else like former Lt Gov Wicker), it will be interesting if Lewis ends up the ‘token black candidate’ to see how the others manage to split what’s left. Hopefully they’ll bloody each other up real good.