Posted on 09/02/2009 7:38:29 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Believe it or not, sometimes good news on the economy can be bad news for stocks.
It's a distant point, but one worth considering in view of conservative pessimism over Obama's plans to spend, tax, borrow, and control the economy. I share these worries. But the U.S. is still a free-market economy, and it will be so at least until the health-care and energy sectors are nationalized. And free-market economies are resilient and self-correcting.
While so-called spending-and-deficit stimulus may be an economic depressant, Friedmanite monetary stimulus -- which has been substantial -- is gradually exerting a powerful impact on economic growth. At the same time, businesses have become lean and mean, with radical cost-cutting of inventories, employment, and hours worked. That's setting up a big profits surge, which is the biggest economic stimulus of all.
Consumers also have retrenched, as is appropriate with falling home prices, a rough stock market correction, and a slowdown of incomes. These corrective forces lead to the next recovery.
In Hayekian and von Misean terms, bad investment and spending decisions are being remedied through the free-market corrective process. And greased by easy money, today's market correctives may produce a much stronger V-shaped recovery than the stock market consensus expects.
That's the message of this week's blowout manufacturing report from the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM index rose for the eighth-straight month, climbing to 52.9 in August from 48.9 in July, with 11 of 18 industries reporting growth. (Anything over 50 is a clear recovery sign, meaning the recession almost certainly ended in June.) At this pace, there could be 4 percent growth in real GDP for the third quarter.
Within the index, new business orders soared to 64.9 (the highest level since December 2004), production jumped to 61.9, and vendor performance improved to 57.1.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...
Obamanomics hasn’t really hit yet.
Kudlow is a nice guy but his credibility suffers from him constantly being bullish.
But it's worth noting that one reason for his eternal optimism is that he has the utmost confidence in the ability of the American entrepreneurial spirit to weather a Marxist regulatory environment and perhaps even profit handsomely from it.
Larry, you magnificent putz!
I hope he’s correct, bless’im but I don’t belive he is.
I disagree with Kudlow, capitalism is in its death throws due to ZerOnomics.
Oh I get that part and he is right. It will only get worse with the Islamo-marxist in charge plus Pelosi and Reid.
The economy and free enterprise can only take so much. Things are not getting better.
Oh I get that part and he is right. It will only get worse with the Islamo-marxist in charge plus Pelosi and Reid.
The economy and free enterprise can only take so much. Things are not getting better.
Wishful thinking! Obamanomics have barely started destroying this economy. The worst is on its way.
Hey, Larry .... prove this!
Avoiding future interest rate exposure as a result of huge deficit spending is the name of the game right now.
I’m sort of conflicted about this for a couple of reasons. The first is that since fixed rate credit is what’s most likely coming to the forefront, it means that there will necessarily be less risk and more collateralized debt in the system. I’m not a fan of over leveraging, but there’s a big dampening effect on the risk taking that puts innovation and options out there in the market place, and it detracts from labor force competition. We need new ventures and risk out there for maximum job creation.
Kudlow talks as if there will be no impact at all from cap and tax or Obamacare(which will get passed,even if it takes reconcilliation to doit) since it is the intent of BO to control both risk and capital via the government. Kudlow thinks on a macro basis whereas decisions made by the job creators, small business, non Wall Street, are done on a micro basis within a macro environment.Let’s look at BO’s record of prediction: Off 133% on this year’s GDP to the bad, and THAT MIGHT BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC; revised GDP growth for next year down 60% ; off 18.75% and rising on unemployment and a mere 28.5% on projected deficits. If we accept the fact that our economy is predicated 60% or more on consumer spending, and it is, as unemployemnt goes up does the discretionary income needed to fuel economic expansion go up? NO. As costs to businesses and individuals go up due to cap and tax price inflation does that increase disposable incom for other conomic expenditures? NO, it doesn’t. As marginal tax rates go up on everyone after 2010, does that increase disposable income? NO. Does the impending inflation/increase in interest rates OR BOTH lend itself to having any disposable income for fueling economic growth,? Does the continual srinkage in tax receipts, at all levels of government lend itself to economic growth, other than that of deficits, which need to be financed and impact the capital markets? True, the markets will act, but they’re going to be constricted by the BO reality.
The private economy is dying on the vine, we have state capitalism, facism, but that is okay with his employer the state supported junk debt king GE.
obama didn’t officially raise taxes but he has basically said if you are in finance, we don’t want you. We will regulate you to death and put caps on compensation so that the best and brightest will have less incentive to run your companies.
No we’re not. Recovery is not possible until unemployment is first arrested and companies begin to hire again. Really, a “jobless recovery” is a oxymoronic lie. And anyone like Kudlow who buys into it is a fool. How can manufacturing be up if the RATE of unemployment continues essentially unabated. And this has not even taken into account the seasonal folks who will be without jobs come the end of September.
Moreover, IMHO, I don’t even believe the housing numbers are materially up for the same reason stated above—unemployment.
The more objective financial analysts are predicting a precipitous decline in the DOW for October. Yesterday’s plunge of 180 pts is just the beginning.
As soon as the elites are all cashed out they’ll let the dominoes fall. I bet thats going to happen between now and the next election in 2010
AGREED. It is the good news / bad news thing:
I’m a Kudlow fan. But sometimes I worry about what the cocaine did to his brain.
The best response I think is to say "You're right. We shouldn't rag on Larry for his nose candy use. After all, cocaine has done far less harm to America in the past decade than asset bubbles and bank bailouts have."
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I believe that you and many others here have not read the first paragraph. Kudlow is saying that if ObamaCare and CapNTax come into being, all bets are off. This whole premise of his article would be negated, and in that case he does not necessarily believe the US economy will be able to rebound.
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