Posted on 08/25/2009 4:58:53 PM PDT by delacoert
Could H1N1 swine flu kill 90,000 Americans this winter and hospitalize 1.8 million? Yes -- but not likely, CDC officials say.
The numbers come from a report to the president from his science/technology advisory panel. The report suggests that in a "plausible scenario," swine flu would infect 40% of the U.S. population and overwhelm hospitals with 300,000 patients needing intensive care.
"PCAST [President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology] emphasizes that this is a planning scenario, not a prediction," states the report, dated Aug. 7 but released only yesterday.
How likely a scenario is it? Not very, says Anne Schuchat, MD, director of the CDC's Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. Schuchat addressed the issue during a two-day meeting held this week for top officials to discuss the flu pandemic with journalists.
"We don't think that is necessarily the most likely scenario, but one we must plan for and be ready for," Schuchat said, noting that it is the CDC's policy to plan for the worst possible case.
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius called the report from the Presidential panel "quite helpful" in justifying the extensive preparations being made for the fall flu season and in pointing out areas where greater efforts are needed.
"We will not know until the middle of flu season how serious this is," Sebelius said at the meeting with journalists. "We think the novel H1N1 virus will infect a lot of people. Even if we have mostly mild cases of novel H1N1, we will have people hospitalized and we will have more deaths."
Sebelius noted that while H1N1 swine flu vaccinations will start around Oct. 15, it's expected that people will need two doses given three weeks apart. That means a person who gets the vaccine won't be protected for five to eight weeks after getting the first dose.
Schuchat estimated that most people who get the vaccine won't be protected until Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, she said, most experts predict an upsurge of flu cases will begin much earlier.
What this means, Schuchat and a parade of CDC officials stressed, is that it's going to take more than a vaccine to fight the flu this fall. Public health will depend at least as much on personal actions as on government efforts.
"Hands and home" are the key tools, as Sebelius says. The message is as important as it is simple:
I was so ticked when I heard this. What a crock. SCARE TACTIC. Then I read Dick Armey predicted Bambi would hype this.
This prediction comes from his “Science Team”. Fire them all.
Ginning up another are we? The One wee weed up his present plans needs a new crisis to help him get out of the bind.
Gov. Sebelius Can’t Be Trusted On Her Own Taxes, But Wants to Run 16% of Economy
As Secretary of the HHS, Gov. Sebelius will be tasked with implementing Obama’s massive health care changes. Someone so indebted to the abortion industry that she vetoes common-sense provisions is incapable of administering any meaningful change or reform in the health care sector.
Gov. Sebelius is unable to manage her own affairs or the affairs of her state. It is ironic that the same woman who pledged in a confirmation hearing to crack down on medical fraud to signal that there was ‘a new sheriff in town’ would ignore our tax laws until she is nominated to the Cabinet. Obviously, she is incapable of running the HHS.”
Source: http://michellemalkin.com/2009/04/02/the-bigger-tax-problems-of-kathleen-sebelius/
About 30,000 to 40,000 deaths occur due to the regular flu each year in the United States. That number could equate to 300,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide.1 The majority of flu-related deaths occur in people over the age of 65.2
• About five to twenty percent of the US population gets the flu each year.
• About 92 children die each year from the flu
http://organizedwisdom.com/How_Many_People_Die_From_the_Flu_Each_Year
When the Swine Flu was headline news early last Spring, we already had over 17,000 deaths from the regular flu, and at the time just a couple of probable cases of Swine Flu deaths, which never did go up much beyond a handful.
My prediction: The deaths worldwide from all kinds of flu this Winter will be about average. But the media will do a Katrina on us.
Oh their hoping!
I know what you mean. Extrapolation of data to find worst case scenarios may be a necessary excercize for government planning, but it ought to be classified. A big part of the problem is the MSM - "if it bleeds it leads."
Around 37,00 die annually from various flu outbreaks.
The 90,000 doesn’t seem like much of a ‘pandemic’ when compared to the 1918 Spanish Flu which killed some 675,000 Americans.
I just got a letter from the school (actually from Gov. Phil Bredensen) stating that if my child(ren) come down with an illness or fever at or above 100 accompanied by cough and or sore throat, unless I KNOW it’s not the flu, I’m supposed to keep them home for 7 days or however long past that when they are completely recovered.
Bird Flu is second only to Swine Flue when it comes to over hype and demagoguery. This looks more like the plot to a Peanuts column every day.
The sheeple are being set up for something - I can’t quite figure out what. We had a suspected case of swine flu at my work and management is going nuts.
Never mind that the sick person missed half a day Friday and her doc said she could return today. She has to go back to the Dr and get a written release.
GM says crap like, “Now, we don’t want you to panic, but, I’m reading that 1 out of 3 people WILL contract this.”
He’s called two meetings about this since Friday. Insane.
Scare tactics. Wonder when the government is going to test the vaccine to make sure people don’t have the same reaction as they did in the 1976 swine flu panic.
The government crying wolf to often can lead to serious consequences.
They are running clinical trials. See previous thread.
I agree, people stop listening, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
37,000 Die Annually from the Seasonal Flu, which is still going to show up as well as the Swine Flu.
So 37,000 + 90,000 = 127,000
sw
True, especially with our current population of 307 million citizens plus 10-15 million illegal aliens.
But the ever-so-crappy cable and broadcast tv media will surely hype it up just to give Obummer pleasure. A “crisis”.
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