an easy show of the economy is how well cardboard box makers are doing, containers are just cardboard boxes writ large...
Posted on 07/17/2009 4:39:47 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
Decline deepens as first half of 2009 ends with business falling off
Containerized imports at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles fell 22.3 percent in June, the steepest combined decline at the nation’s largest port complex since March, according to figures released by the ports.
Loaded imported containers fell 28.4 percent at Long Beach in June from last year and imports at neighboring Los Angeles dropped 17.1 percent as the ports saw business deteriorate heading into the summer.
Both ports saw imported loaded containers pull back during the month from May, when a steady improvement raised hopes of seasonal growth heading into the fall shipping period.
But Long Beach’s loaded imported containers, measured in TEUs, fell back 1.1 percent on a month-to-month basis and Los Angeles saw that business slide 7.5 percent in June compared to May.
Exports were also weak, with loaded exported TEUs down 28.8 percent at Long Beach from last and off 9 percent in Los Angeles. The LA port’s export business also fell 10 percent on a month-to-month basis.
With 3.2 million containers handled in the first half of this year, including empties, the Port of Angeles is on track to have its lightest year for container traffic since 2002.
Oh, there will be joy on the Left Coast especially among all those union longshoremen who understand they must sacrifice to save polar bears.
By Christmas, the economy will be in a full fledged depression. Buy guns, ammo - lots of ammo, and gold.
So, is southern West Coast incoming shipping container volume a leading or trailing economic indicator?
Now there is change!
I see more ‘breaking’ than ‘making’ for the smaller retailer. Wal-Mart and Macy’s will survive. I think. ;)
I’m in retail (year-round Garden Center) and we will be receiving our ‘leftover Christmas 2008’ stock from our warehouse. We’re sorting it, pricing it to move (75-90% off) and liquidating it.
We’re not doing any ‘inside sales’ this season; no fake trees, no fake wreaths or roping, no ornaments, lights, nada. (Thank goodness! So much WORK for so little return!)
We’re selling Living Christmas Trees, we’re selling fresh cut trees and boughs and roping, HUGE pinecones, cut red twig dogwood and curly willow; all the stuff one needs for a ‘natural’ Christmas.
I placed my order for those items a few weeks back and it is the skinniest it’s been in the three years I’ve been in charge of that area of operation.
Wouldn’t it be amazing if all of this bad economic news makes people get back to ‘The Reason for the Season?’
Is there any connection between the 0bamaconomy going down the tubes and church attendance on the rise?
I sure hope so! :)
"Exports were also weak, with loaded exported TEUs down 28.8 percent...."
In very general terms imports are trailing indicators and exports are leading indicators.
an easy show of the economy is how well cardboard box makers are doing, containers are just cardboard boxes writ large...
Thnx.
Leading - along with FedEx and UPS
Dry bulk shipping is definitely a leading indicator, and oil can probably be a leading indicator, but containers I am going to have to call a trailing indicator.
This low peak season is not a surprise, it was actually called by the retailers themselves right after Christmas. Orders for next Christmas generally take place just after Christmas. What retailers predicted last year was that there still would be a recession, and that they would still have inventory so there is no need to stock up much. The retailers who will survive this year may not be the ones that sell the most, but the ones who stocked up the least, and had some good sales.
May not be a coincidence that LA/LB has recently instituted clear-air standards that restrict access to non-compliant trucks with old diesel engines.
I think container volumes are down all over the U.S., but on the East Coast the decline is somewhat less severe.
I can see where import/export of raw materials can be quite different from import/export of finished goods as economic indicators.
I heard on the news this morning that California has just started enforcing emissions for Cargo Ships, requiring them to install expensive filters and scrubbers to their diesel engines to remove at least 75% of “particulates” if they want to pull into LA/LB harbor. were talking millions of dollars per ship. Couple that with new diesel truck requirements and, well, I expect the harbor to be closed by this time next year.
And it should,
were all moving to Galts Gulch soon
bingo... no sales means no boxes
Thanks for the link — that’s exactly the kind of article I remember reading.
Interesting post. There’s a history behind the clean-air regulations at LA/LB. Extensive health and environmental studies done over the years have made a strong case that from an economic standpoint the port is a losing proposition. This is mainly because the vast majority of the cargo that moves through the port is going elsewhere — which means the Los Angeles area bears the burden of all those air quality problems without getting enough of a benefit to make it worthwhile.
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