Posted on 05/16/2009 4:04:21 PM PDT by grandpa jones
FRIDAY, May 15 (HealthDay News) -- While the official tally of confirmed U.S. swine flu cases topped 4,700 on Friday, experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimate the true number of infections at more than 100,000 nationwide.
[snip]
In fact, "estimates of the confirmed and probable cases in the United States is probably not the best indicator of transmission at this point," the CDC's Jernigan said. "The outbreak is not localized, but is spreading and appears to be expanding throughout the United States. This is an ongoing public health threat," he said.
It's a little hard to make an estimate of the number of people who have the H1N1 flu, Jernigan said, "but if we had to make an estimate, I would say that the amount of activity we are seeing with our influenza-like illness network is probably upwards of 100,000."
He said that there seems to be more cases of flu generally in the U.S. -- both the seasonal and the new H1N1 swine flu -- than is usually seen at this time of the year. "There are 22 U.S. states that are reporting widespread or regional influenza activity, which is something that we would not expect at this time," Jernigan said.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
It’s the method they used for the financial crisis, described in the South Park episode “Margaritaville”.
actual # of cases X 10
double it
round up
The Swine Flu of 1976 had every indication of being a killer flu, and was less than 10 years after the Hong Kong flu of 1968 had disastrous effects around the US. The HK flu left millions of Americans flat on their back for weeks, even though it only killed 33,000 Americans.
President Ford was absolutely right to try and get the wholly inadequate flu defenses up to the level needed for a killer flu, and there was no argument against his requests at any level of the government. But then, unexpectedly, the Swine flu again mutated to a far less harmful strain.
It did demonstrate, however, that we were helpless against a killer flu.
As far as your contention that H5N1 Avian flu is a scam, let me assure you it remains the most dangerous threat to the United States short of nuclear war, with mortality estimates in its current form from between 10-30 million Americans.
It is vastly superior to every known influenza, including the Spanish flu of 1918. The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of 2.5% of infected persons. So far, inexplicably, the H5N1 Avian flu has maintained a mortality rate of over 60%, except only in one location, Egypt.
H5N1 has subdivided into three major subgroups, or clades. The Chinese clade is expanding its *endemic* territory throughout SE Asia, becoming a permanent part of its ecosystem, and emerging unpredictably, hundreds of miles apart.
The Bangladesh clade is not adapting to humans well, but has developed an unheard of number of animal vectors, including animals with vastly different immune systems. If it emerges as an animal plague, it could wipe out most domestic animals in the world.
The Egyptian clade is the only one with diminished mortality, and then only in children. This is perhaps the most dangerous clade, as its human hosts can help it adapt to spreading from human to human. Then, when it reemerges, it can readily assume its more lethal form.
Within one year of the Asian introduction of antiviral agents, such as Tamiflu, all of the normal influenza strains of North America have developed resistance to them.
The main reason H5N1 has not become easily spread from humans to humans is because most of its reproduction happens in the lower trachea, instead of the upper trachea and sinuses. This is not a major adaptation. However, it makes up for this by, unlike other types of influenza, reproducing in other internal organs.
So far, physicians has been able to tell if an H5N1 victim is going to survive or die by simply looking at a chest X-ray. A large percentage of the death have occurred because of oxygen deprivation to the internal organs. In short, the lungs were destroyed.
The bottom line is that H5N1 cannot be compared to any previously known human disease. Its effects are instead potentially comparable only to the intentional introduction of myxomatosis in an effort to wipe out the rabbits of Australia in 1950:
http://www.csiro.au/science/MyxomatosisHistory.html
And while H5N1 is not *that* lethal as a disease, it is closer to it, in mortality rate, than any previously known human epidemic.
Wishful thinking. They're trying to claw their way back to relevance.
You get 100,000 from:
98,000 illegals that they call Americans
2,000 true legal Americans
LOL. That’s how it works.
Confirmation carries a cost and I'm sure they're not running tests on everybody who has a singular symptom that MIGHT indicate flu.
I'm guessing too that they might have models based on a number of factors that allow them to produce a rough estimate based on statistical elements such as severity spread of cases, actual confirmations vs referrals, and other elements.
Consider this extreme simplification: IF you knew that the severity distribution followed a bell curve, and all you had was some of the upper region of that curve, you could fairly reasonably extrapolate the rest of the curve.
Totally misleading headline ...the quote is 100,000 “influenze-like” symptoms and was a totally off the cuff remark by one3 individual
far more deaths from the “normal” flu have happened.
I call Bravo Sierra on the title at least-scare mongering gone wild.
facts x fear x emotion x agenda x pi squared = CDC swine flu projection
It's Bush's fault.
Or, maybe they don't!
Thanks for finding this. I told my b/f (who is in Chicago) that Illinois had a ton of cases, and he didn’t believe me.
They have more than everyone else!
I call BS.
Anyone on this thread had a confirmed case of Swine Flu?
Know anybody that has?
I have friends all over the US. None of them have had the flu. And none of them know of any cases.
The CDC is using this as a money pit. Blown it all out of proportion.
One of my friend’s aunt had swine flu. It was caught early, so she’ll be all right.
Another friend had a couple of college students who were hospitalized for ‘something’ with serious flu symptoms. We’ve had some cases around here.
One of my really close friends is a doc...and will not travel now, citing 0bamaflu as the reason.
However, I do think this thing is being used to push 0bamacare.
Is this a bad thing? There have not been a lot of “healthy people” deaths so it seems like we will have a whole lot of people with immunity.
Furthermore, The Five Stages of Collapse
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