Posted on 04/04/2009 12:32:15 PM PDT by Maelstorm
First Murphy seemed to have won the election,then Tedisco took the lead, now they’re tied.
The news coming from New York’s district 20 is becoming stranger and stranger as days go by. The voting machines are recanvassed, which led Republican Jim Tedisco to take the lead (by as few as 12 votes at a certain moment). As it is now, Tedisco and his Democratic opponent Scotty Murphy are tied, however.
Jim Geraghty reports: “The recanvass of the ballots in the NY-20 race has yielded, so far, a 77,225 to 77,225 tie. Saratoga County still has to be recanvassed, and absentee ballots have to be included.”
It’s utterly amazing just how close elections can be. The situation with the NY-20 seat in Congress reminds me of how things are going in Minnesota. Norm Coleman and Al Franken are virtually tied there as well, and both have gone to court over the results. The battle could drag on for months, possibly even longer. It seems to me that we should expect the same thing to happen in New York.
All votes haven’t been recounted yet, however. There are still several thousands to go. Especially absentee ballots will be of crucial importance. Jennifer Rubin explained earlier this week for Commentary why this is probably good news for Tedisco:
According to absentee-ballot numbers I received last night: in Warren, Republicans returned 569 of 764 ballots while Democrats returned only 316 of 437, with 113 of 205 “other” ballots returned. I suppose the Democrat could pick up votes, but he’d have to overcome a tremendous differential in party identification of the returned absentee ballots — 569 vs. 316, or 57% vs. 31%. (That’s a big advantage over registration in the county as a whole, where Republicans have only 49% of the electorate.) How likely is that?…
But the real kicker is in Saratoga. The latest figures there were 1,731 ballots returned, 922 of which were Republican and 502 Democratic (53% vs. 29%), with the remainder “other .” That is a very big chunk of the absentees, about one third. Tedisco won that county by a 54-46% margin.
None of these figures include the approximately 1,000 military ballots sent out (less than 200 returned). Considering Murphy’s comments on ROTC recruitment on campus and the assumption that military voters are more conservative, these will likely go in Tedisco’s favor. No one knows how it will all shake out, and this is why they count the ballots — to find out who really won.
A victory for Tedisco would be great news for Republicans - they’d have won every election after the November elections of last year - and bad news for Democrats. Especially President Obama would lose face - he lobbied hard for Murphy, knowing that a victory for Tedisco would’ve been interpreted as a defeat for him (Obama) first and foremost.
Hope this cheers folks up. I felt this was coming and it’s actually a huge victory.
The Rats had a 4% lead going into the vote and a huge lead in the district from the November election.
And it’s fallen apart for them. Despite their money and focus, it’s going to result in a flat out defeat.
And Tedesco didn’t even run a good campaign from what I hear.
ACORN has been called in to Organize Protests for Murphy. < / sarc
The voting machines are recanvassed but in Obama terms, we are looking to steal this election by using illegal votes.
The problem with New York Democrats is they are not used to having to cheat to win elections. If this were say Washington, Minnesota, or Wisconsin, the Democrat would have a significant lead by now as new votes are ‘discovered’.
I imagine some “judge” somewhere, probably California or Washington State will declare Murphy the winner due to the fact that a DemocRAT had previously held the seat and New Yawk is a “blue” state. That’s the way things seem to work in this country lately.
Sounds like the “voting machines” were recanvassed by the Teleprompter.
5995 absentee ballots.
48% GOP = 2878
36% GOP = 2158
16% Ind = 959
IF the GOP and Dem voters vote party line, then Murphy would need to make up a 720 vote deficit in the absentee ballots.
Murphy would then need 75% of the 959 Ind. ballots just to catch up with Murphy. That would be 720 votes.
Just put some more time into this, and, well -— I think Murphy needs 840 of the Ind. absentee votes.
840/959 = 88%!!!
Yes, some of the GOP absentees went to Murphy.
Yes, some of the Dem absentees went to Tedisco.
Those will tend to cancel each other out, IMHO.
Also, Tedisco LEAD in the polls until recently. This would tend to make the EARLY VOTERS more R than D, would it not?
I must say I'm pleasantly surprised. Tedisco ran a amateurish campaign while Murphy ran a solid campaign backed by a ton of out of state money.
It's interesting that this race has received almost no coverage on the nightly news casts.
There's two or three more special elections still to come. They are all in comfortably Democrat districts - the GOP has no realistic chance of winning. But, I'm sure those wins for the Dems will be covered with great intensity by the MSM.
Oh, no ! Not.... TOTUS !
I would not “count” on him having it in the bag. Acorn (democratic cheating) with the numbers you stated could wipe out any real victory he had. Remember cheaters cheat to win and the fact that it is a strong republican area means nothing. Ballets will “show up” for the other guy. We need some real strong republicans overseeing EVERY move on the counting. Good luck Tedisco, I pray you win!
As long as “election workers” will be permitted to find missing ballots in their trunks, the republican will be in for a tough time. Who actually wins has become almost irrelevant, as democrats have turned election fraud into an art.
It would receive plenty of media attention if the Rat candidate won.
They’d be trumpeting it actually.
They are so predictable.
You may use that little/s tag if you wish, but I have no doubt that ACORN members will be showing up with “forgotten” dem votes that were left in car trunks somewhere.
Hussein will dictate the result. He is der Fuhrer. < \half joking>
Ditto. We've seen this script far too often to relax yet.
Aye, there's the rub. ACORN will bring the dead to life.
thanks justiceseeker93:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2221105/posts?page=46#46
Who is doing the counting? That side will be the winner.
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