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An Outbreak of Autism, or a Statistical Fluke?
NY Times ^ | March 17, 2009 | DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

Posted on 03/16/2009 9:36:42 PM PDT by neverdem

MINNEAPOLIS — Ayub Abdi is a cute 5-year-old with a smile that might be called shy if not for the empty look in his eyes. He does not speak. When he was 2, he could say “Dad,” “Mom,” “give me” and “need water,” but he has lost all that.

He does scream and spit, and he moans a loud “Unnnnh! Unnnnh!” when he is unhappy. At night he pounds the walls for hours, which led to his family’s eviction from their last apartment.

As he is strapped into his seat in the bus that takes him to special education class, it is hard not to notice that there is only one other child inside, and he too is a son of Somali immigrants.

“I know 10 guys whose kids have autism,” said Ayub’s father, Abdirisak Jama, a 39-year-old security guard. “They are all looking for help.”

Autism is terrifying the community of Somali immigrants in Minneapolis, and some pediatricians and educators have joined parents in raising the alarm. But public health experts say it is hard to tell whether the apparent surge of cases is an actual outbreak, with a cause that can be addressed, or just a statistical fluke.

In an effort to find out, the Minnesota Department of Health is conducting an epidemiological survey in consultation with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This kind of conundrum, experts say, arises whenever there is a cluster of noncontagious illnesses.

While there is little research on autism clusters, reports of cancer clusters are so common that health agencies across the country respond to more than 1,000 inquiries about suspected ones each year. A vast majority prove unfounded, and even when one is confirmed, the cause is seldom ascertained, as it was for Kaposi’s sarcoma among gay men and...

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: autism; clusters; epidemiology; health; medicine; somalis
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1 posted on 03/16/2009 9:36:43 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem
"In Somalia, cousins do marry cousins. Globally, according to the March of Dimes, birth defect rates are highest in Arab countries with close intermarriage. But Somalia’s birth defect rate is moderate, and autism is not part of such studies."
What the hell is the point of referencing a study that SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDES the point of discussion?
The newspaper of record indeed.
2 posted on 03/16/2009 9:44:43 PM PDT by ClaudiusI
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To: neverdem

It doesn’t matter what science comes up with as potential or real causality, the parents of autistic kids will shoot it down.

Something is up, but we will never know what, since any painful truth cannot be stated.


3 posted on 03/16/2009 9:44:50 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Communism comes to America: 1/20/2009. Keep your powder dry, folks.)
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To: neverdem
They have moved to America. Their diets are different. Put the kids on a gluten and dairy free diet for a month. It's an inexpensive test that often yields a favorable improvement. Kids with a leaky gut that consume milk will sometimes convert the casein into neuropeptides that resemble morphine. They become "hooked" on their internally manufactured morphine and become unresponsive to the outside world. The leaky gut can also set them up for type 1 diabetes as the milk protein sets off an auto-immune response that attacks the pancreas.
4 posted on 03/16/2009 9:54:47 PM PDT by Myrddin
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To: neverdem

What do you think is up, neverdem?

On a diff. note, from the article: “I don’t see a lot of people trying to help us. It’s better than it was in Egypt or Somalia, but it’s not what I expected.” These damn immigrants come here and expect Americans to hop-to to help them?


5 posted on 03/16/2009 9:56:55 PM PDT by definitelynotaliberal
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To: Myrddin

Scary stuff. What happens after a month if you notice improvement?


6 posted on 03/16/2009 9:58:36 PM PDT by definitelynotaliberal
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To: freedumb2003

Google autism rate Amish. The Amish have an autism rate that is 1/100 of average American rates. Since the Amish limit their interaction with modernity (i.e less processed foods, less immunization shots, less electronics). My guess is immunization shots, but not from the mercury argument. Latest study of Gulf War Syndrome from first Gulf War are concluding the possiblility as healthy adults prepare for overseas duty they were givened a battery of immunization shots in one session. Theory is the side effects of each shot could have interacted and affected the body of the servicemen and caused all types of disorders to manifest. Today we start immunizing kids upon birth till four years old with 18 to 24 types of shots. Small body and a battery of shots in such a short time period could be causing all types of interactive side affects related to asthma, allergies and even autism. Best way to determine the affects of pre school shots is to limit the number of them required before Kindergarten and spread the rest out, and then over time see what happens to the autism rate. Back in the 1960’s we required only 7 to 8 shots before attending kindergarten. Autism rate plus retardation rate combined is a lot smaller than current autism plus retardation rate. (Reason the two rates are combined for comparison, is back in the past many austistic kids were considered to be retarded).


7 posted on 03/16/2009 10:00:24 PM PDT by Fee (Peace, prosperity, jobs and common sense)
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To: Myrddin

Gluten and casein free helps a LOT, but it’s not a magic bullet, which causes people to stop it unneccessarily. My son improved a lot on it, but he is still autistic and diagnosed as “moderately retarded.” I have no doubt that he would be much worse were he not on the diet, though. He went from being mostly non-verbal to speaking in complete sentences and being able to read and write somewhat.


8 posted on 03/16/2009 10:01:39 PM PDT by conservative cat (America, you have been PWNED!)
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To: definitelynotaliberal
On a diff. note, from the article: “I don’t see a lot of people trying to help us. It’s better than it was in Egypt or Somalia, but it’s not what I expected.” These damn immigrants come here and expect Americans to hop-to to help them?

That struck me as well. What were they expecting EXACTLY?

9 posted on 03/16/2009 10:01:45 PM PDT by Kylie_04 (I must not consume liquids while reading posts. I must not consume liquids while reading posts.)
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To: Fee

I don’t think mercury helped (my son was vaccinated in the “mercury” days), but I do think the amount of vaccines given sets off some sort of auto-immunity problems. I think it’s also a reason we see so many food allergies. Didn’t know a single kid with peanut allergies as a kid in the 70’s and 80’s, and now there are at least a few in every school, and I do think these are valid allergies (some on FR consider it to be over-protective parents, over-pampered kids.)


10 posted on 03/16/2009 10:04:22 PM PDT by conservative cat (America, you have been PWNED!)
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To: Fee
Google autism rate Amish. The Amish have an autism rate that is 1/100 of average American rates. Since the Amish limit their interaction with modernity (i.e less processed foods, less immunization shots, less electronics). My guess is...

Guesses ain't science. MY guess is it is late-age births (probably more the man than the woman) that predisposes it. We might be able to bring in a cohort Mormon study to establish a potential corollary.

But your ideas and mine both suffer from post hoc/propter hoc.

It could be florescent lighting in the home for all we know.

11 posted on 03/16/2009 10:08:30 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Communism comes to America: 1/20/2009. Keep your powder dry, folks.)
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To: definitelynotaliberal
Scary stuff. What happens after a month if you notice improvement?

Remain on the diet. Consuming the offending foods again will bring back the unpleasant consequences very quickly. The good news is that strict adherence will fix the problem again. Be aware that the first few days avoiding the offending substances will bring a period of withdrawal from the morphine like substances. The child will want milk to generate the morphine "fix".

Gluten free isn't that hard to accomplish. I have to live by the regimen. Eating at restaurants can be tricky.

12 posted on 03/16/2009 10:10:52 PM PDT by Myrddin
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To: conservative cat
Gluten and casein free helps a LOT, but it’s not a magic bullet, which causes people to stop it unneccessarily. My son improved a lot on it, but he is still autistic and diagnosed as “moderately retarded.” I have no doubt that he would be much worse were he not on the diet, though. He went from being mostly non-verbal to speaking in complete sentences and being able to read and write somewhat.

That's a substantial improvement. Did you observe any improvements in self control along with the improved verbal and reading/writing skills?

13 posted on 03/16/2009 10:13:06 PM PDT by Myrddin
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To: ClaudiusI
""In Somalia, cousins do marry cousins. Globally, according to the March of Dimes, birth defect rates are highest in Arab countries with close intermarriage. But Somalia’s birth defect rate is moderate, and autism is not part of such studies."

What the hell is the point of referencing a study that SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDES the point of discussion? The newspaper of record indeed.

IMHO, it's an indirect hint at that genes are involved.

14 posted on 03/16/2009 10:13:53 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: conservative cat

Check out the above book. There are additional things beyond the gluten and casein restriction that might be helpful. I was reading it for background on the gluten issues when I picked up on the casein connection. There is more info to be gleaned, but it didn't seem pertinent to my specific interest at the time.

15 posted on 03/16/2009 10:19:17 PM PDT by Myrddin
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To: Myrddin
Some other improvements. He has been on gluten free for over nine years now (with some exceptions when other people fed him what they weren't supposed to). We went casein free then back on, and then back free again. We did end up putting him on traditional medication when he started puberty due to some really poor impulse control and anger issues. However, compared to some lower functioning, it is pretty mild.

He also was part of a secretin study in 1999 where he received some, and I do think there were some improvements there, as well. We think there is an immune/gut/brain damage connection based on genetic susceptibility with environmental triggers.

16 posted on 03/16/2009 10:21:40 PM PDT by conservative cat (America, you have been PWNED!)
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To: Myrddin

Thank you- will check the book out. We have made a lot of changes in our diet, overall. We found out my five year old goes CRAZY on artificial coloring, so those are pretty forbidden in our house (dairy impacts almost all of us to some degree, too, but we limit it to varying degrees.) We don’t do artificial sweeteners, and I am not a corn syrup fan.


17 posted on 03/16/2009 10:23:37 PM PDT by conservative cat (America, you have been PWNED!)
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To: Myrddin; Incorrigible
They have moved to America. Their diets are different. Put the kids on a gluten and dairy free diet for a month. It's an inexpensive test that often yields a favorable improvement. Kids with a leaky gut that consume milk will sometimes convert the casein into neuropeptides that resemble morphine. They become "hooked" on their internally manufactured morphine and become unresponsive to the outside world. The leaky gut can also set them up for type 1 diabetes as the milk protein sets off an auto-immune response that attacks the pancreas.

I haven't heard of the endorphin mimicry or risk of type 1 diabetes.

Autoimmune diseases in parents of children with infantile autism: a case-control study.

18 posted on 03/16/2009 10:27:11 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: conservative cat

We really don’t know other than make observations and educated guesses. Experimentation is the key to narrowing the factors. Like I said earlier, studies on the Amish, who tend to stay in one place and not mobile like modern families have an autism rate 1/100 of average Americans, while attempts to study mobile modern families are harder to control. Thus the observations of Amish population gives us an opportunity and maybe clues to what may cause autism. What is needed is a good control experiment (ie modified immunization schedule) to see if there are any effects on autism rates. So far no state is willing to do such an experiment.


19 posted on 03/16/2009 10:28:20 PM PDT by Fee (Peace, prosperity, jobs and common sense)
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To: conservative cat
Thanks for sharing your experiences. Reading case studies in books is interesting. Observing actual experiences lends credibility to the studies.
20 posted on 03/16/2009 10:41:20 PM PDT by Myrddin
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