Posted on 03/09/2009 11:41:29 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Depression? Recession? No, It's the Great Restructuring
by: Jeff Jarvis March 09, 2009
It’s not a great depression, neither is it a great recession we’re going through now. At the Brite conference this week, Umair Haque called it a great “compression,” as an economy built on perceived value reconciles with actual value. This morning, The New York Times finally realized that what we’re experiencing is more than a financial crisis: “Job Losses Hint at Vast Remaking of Economy.” Well, yes, if hints were sledgehammers.
/snip
Yes, entire swaths and even sectors of the economy will disappear or will change so much they might as well disappear:
/snip
Financial services will have to be completely remade (by government). “Much the same can be said for financial services, which gave up 44,000 jobs in February,” the Times said. “During the housing boom, banks hired tens of thousands of well-compensated traders, analysts and marketers to sell mortgage-backed securities and other investments. That industry is unlikely to return to its former shape.” Who knew that the Times was such a master of understatement?
* Newspapers will vanish. Magazines are in worse shape than I would have guessed and many will go. Books‘ channels of manufacturing, distribution, and sales will go through upheaval.
* Broadcast media will become meaningless, replaced by digital delivery.
* Advertising will be next to feel the earthquake avalanche, after media.
* Large-scale retail will shrink and consolidate and then be transformed by a search-and-buy economy. The Times: “The economy lost 39,500 retail jobs in February, and has eliminated more than 500,000 in the last year.”
* The blockbuster economy in entertainment will become harder to support as more attention and money shifts to the tail.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
* 500 times more people will be sucking at the tit of the gubermint.
Ping!
The only silver lining is that finance, stock market, and advertising are all centered in New York City.
Anyone with a keyboard and internet connection knows where and how to find just about anything. Advertisers will just go where the people are. Quicker, less messy, and costs a lot less.
That only means that New York liberals will be streaming out of their enclave into a neighborhood near you, now there’s a cheery thought!
Commercial real-estate is the next to fall, before advertising. Office vacancy rates are at 14.4% and climbing.
Look at what has happened to home prices with 15% vacancy rates in homes. Commercial real estate is headed off that self-same cliff.
Too much office space...too many shopping malls.
What good is all this restructuring if the first impulse of the inventor/business owner is to send the specs overseas to set up factories, share the tech info with H-1B workers, have universities train foreign students, and within five years the entire product is made in China, managed by Chinese and Indian IT workers, while a handful of Americans would reap the financial rewards?? If the new American economy is based on the ancient Chinese management of their own national treasure such as silk, then the US may enjoy centuries of prosperity and full employment for its population. Otherwise the new restructured economy is more of the same, except with new rich people who would hire lobbyists to influence Congress to look the other way and new companies whose stocks would be pumped and dumped to recreate the same crash 70 years later.
Global market...you sell your skill set to the highest bidder.
Foreign prices will continue to go up, and so will oil. It’s just a matter of time and international balancing. Since fall of 2007, there has been an effort to push foreign product prices and oil prices down—a foolhardy effort that is backfiring and will only have an effect for a short while.
Rejoice! The traitors are about to lose. They might even be exiled to their preferred countries before long. Just don’t buy anything that you don’t really need, and learn to make something truly useful. Grow a garden, and improve it each year.
Darn good point :-).
I can sense that this guy wants to make his name as a business guru of ‘great restructuring era.’ As such, he won’t bash outsourcing to make his chief clientele upset.
I can sense that this guy wants to make his name as a business guru of ‘great restructuring era.’ As such, he won’t bash outsourcing to make his chief clientele upset.
Viewed another way — he knows on which side his bread is buttered.
When “sectors of the economy” disappear people can’t even afford to go to the Qwicki-Wash laundromat, not to mention buy a new washing machine.
We might save a few bucks if the “sector of the economy” that disappeared was this jokers job!
I donate one big FU to the outsourcing greedsters.
We’re American, we can make it here.
If we can’t make it here, we’ll find something else.
To hell with the global crap. I’m more worried about my neighbors and family than some character in Pakistan or wherever.
Al Qaeda won't even bother with NY again. Not a high value target anymore. In two years only Barney Rubbles will live there. Its growth industry will be pizza
great restructuring era........
Yeah a “Great Restructuring” downward which we have been postponing for at least ten years by running colossal trade deficits, borrowing from abroad and engaging in bubble economics AKA tulip manias.
Call me a liberal but globalism is unAmerican. My conservatism ends at the waters edge. Does yours?
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