Posted on 03/09/2009 4:07:48 PM PDT by quesney
The man who predicted the current financial crisis said the US recession could drag on for years without drastic action.
Among his solutions: fix the housing market by breaking "every mortgage contract."
"We are in the 15th month of a recession," said Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, told CNBC in a live interview. "Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year."
Echoing a speech he made earlier in the day, Roubini said he sees "no hope for the recession ending in 2009 and will more than likely last into 2010."
Roubini, who is also known as "Dr. Doom," told CNBC that the risk of a total meltdown has been reversed for now but that the economy is going through "a death by a thousand cuts." He also said that "most of the U.S. financial institutions are entirely insolvent."
"The market friendly view for the banks is nationalization," said Roubini. "Temporarily take over the banks, clean them up and get them working again."
Earlier in the day, Roubini spoke to the CBOE Risk Management Conference and said he believes total losses could peak at $3.6 trillion in the financial system, with half of that being borne by banks and bank dealers and the other half borne by hedge funds and pension funds, among others.
He said that while U.S. GDP next year could be zero, global GDP could dip into negative territory.
"We could end up ... with a 36-month recession, that could be "L-shaped stagnation, or near depression," Roubini said. He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped recession at 66.7 percent, and a more severe L-shaped recession at 33.3 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
I don't think so. Apparently Teh Stoopid from MSNBC is bleeding over to CNBC. Perhaps they meant percent change?
What a morooon.
Now for the real Dr. Doom:
http://illuminati-overtime.blogspot.com/2009/02/financial-armageddon-attackers-running.html
He pooped the chute. Mowed the bone. Shite the bed.That was the fasted demise of a presidency I have ever seen.
I knew it would happen, just not this soon. The only pleasure I have right now is watching the liberals.....they're not smiling anymore.....
I wonder if we should just default on everything and keep the remaining cash from our job instead of paying our mortgage . . . except we have to live somewhere, I suppose.
The droughts, however, are happening now. Last year everyone got a small taste when they discovered Australian and Argentine grain crops were not available. China stopped all exports of grain crops in any form. So did Russia.
This year the extent of the drought has expanded to include most of the Mideast, the Balkans, Eastern Europe, probably parts of Russia, Khazakstan, the old central Asian republics, the wheat belt in China, and now the Southeastern United States, the Mid-Atlantic States, California, the Southwest, the lower Midwest/MidSouth, and probably the Mediterranean basin (which we won't know for a month or so).
This has the makings of one of those massive killer droughts like happened in the early 1800s.
The very first one occurred over a 3 or 4 year period that encompassed what is known as the War of 1812. Remember? Napoleon's army marched off to Russia just as they had record cold ~ just like they always have in drought/famine years.
This one was so bad it extended from the Northernmost part of Norway across Fenno Scandia North of St. Petersburg, down to Moscow, down to Ukraine, down to Bulgaria ~ and then East to China.
Estimates vary. Some say the deaths were merely in the millions. Others say that when the drought hit Mongolia, China, Tibet, Manchuria and Siberia the deaths were in the hundreds of millions.
No one knows how bad it was but when the Danish and Finish adventurers working for the Czar traversed Siberia to the Pacific, they found it profitable to go all the way to Alaska, which had not been hit by the drought, to find furs to ship back to Europe.
For the most part, no one lived there anymore. Manchuria was empty and open for takeover by the Japanese in less than a century.
The world changed tremendously with just one massive drought. There were another dozen or so of the same sort of thing over the next 50 years. Then they went away.
They're Baaaack!!!!!!
The current generation of Ivy League dilettantes in power have all the answers, for every problem.
I personally cannot see how a Car Czar, Health Care Czar, telepromptered “press conferences, endless meetings, working groups with breakout sessions...all the latest New Age Community Management techniques can possibly fail.
Sit back, relax, and let the Government take care of you. They know better.
There was a major drought on the East Coast that occurred roughly from the time Walter Raleigh sailed away to the day John Smith and his band of happy campers settled Jamestown.
It was constant, unrelenting, bone dry drought.
It was so bad the water ABOVE the Fall Line was salty. That hasn't happened since. I suspect it will happen this year. We are short half a dozen hurricanes.
Stop trying to cheer us up. :O)
I think we were receding because of high oil prices at the time. IMHO the record high energy prices was the mechanism that pushed the foreclosure crisis off of the cliff.
Happy days are here again!
Then poor Bambi will be all alone, and with no one who wants to vote for him.
Want some butter with that toast, its a little dry.
Canned beans have a high water content. Perhaps 10,000 cases should weather the storm. Of course, I wouldn’t have any friends left.
I am also predicting a massive run up on oil prices and possible shortages once Israel attacks Iran. IMHO this will happen in the late summer this year. Some are predicting oil prices, even in this depressed economy, to shoot up to $200/barrel. That translates into $6/gal gas and $7/gal diesel. Oil production has been down, and it will take months to ramp back up to production levels of last fall.
Already struggling industries will go belly-up, and even strong performers like Wal-Mart will take hits. Food prices will surge as well. Unemployment will hit 20% under this scenario, as will the foreclosure rate. People will not travel, either because of having no money, unable to afford gas, and/or fear of terrorism. The shipping industry will be crippled as well. The Dow will collapse to 2000 points, NASDAQ-450pts, and S&P 500-400pts.
The second ruin was a small Indian encampment ~ may have been a dozen families. Once you knew the outlines you could find cooking stones, grinding stones, stone knives, stone axes, buttons (yes, buttons ~ Indians had buttons), and traces of other items of daily use. You could also find little traces of charcoal in the dirt where it was pretty obvious a lodge or tent pole had caught fire, burned, fell to the ground, and made its mark.
Their settlement had burned to the ground just as if the only thing missing were the people.
I figured it disappeared back in the 1500s or so when the Iriquois begain extending their reach into the Ohio Valley ~ they used terror to collect taxes (mostly furs, food products, tanned leather)
I know what a village that burned to the ground looks like and feels like.
I see millions of them coming soon.
I’d scratch that “Israel v. Iran” deal. Israel has those guys on the ropes this year ~ the drought will negatively affect everybody but Israel and Egypt. Iran will have all it can do to raise food.
Trust me, no matter what this man does or does not do, there are millions of idiots in the inner cities who will vote for him. These are the same people who keep electing Marion Barry. Obama could be caught committing unnatural acts with an underage Portuguese Water Spaniel in the middle of the South Lawn, and the idiots would write songs about it.
Dow 5000?
He’s a F’n optimist!
We are gradually building up a small store of long lasting foods.
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